Category Archives: Finance

Technological Damnation #77 e-Currency

We started out our series with the Economic Damnation of Currency Strength, which, thanks to the recent unexpected fluctuations in certain global currencies, probably has you shaking in your boots. But if you think trying to manage real currency exchange is bad, just wait until you have to start using non-country based e-Currency, like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, a peer-to-peer payment system released as open source software in 2009, allows users to transact without using an intermediary using a decentralized virtual currency (or crypto currency) which has a value defined by the global market based on the fact that it’s limited and once all of it has been “mined”, there are no more units. Because of its structure, new units cannot be issued on a whim (whereas a country can print as much money as it wants, at the risk of hyperinflation), and, as a result, it’s value can, and has, skyrocket(ed) over night.

For example, up until late 2013, Bitcoin’s value was negligible, at which point it skyrocketed to a value of over one hundred. It stayed there for almost a year until early 2014 when it skyrocketed up to a value of almost 1200, before, over the last year, crashing back down to about 200 (in US dollars). On January 18, 2013 it’s value was 15.70. On April 9, 2013 it was $230. On April 16, 2013 it was 68.36. On May 4, 2013 it stabilized around 112.90. It stayed there until around October 15 when it began to skyrocket to 1,147.25 on December 4, 2013 then it crashed back to 522.23 on December 18, 2013 returned to 940.10 on January 5, 2014 and since then has been on a downward fall until January 18, 2015 when it was 199.56.

As virtual / crypto currency is still in its infancy, shocks like this can be expected and can be much more devastating than the recent drop in the Ruble. And, even worse, now that many vendors are starting to accept crypto currency as payment from global consumers that trust the currency, they will be expecting to pay with the currency as well. And your organization will have to hedge against new crypto currencies, which might also include Litecoin and Darkcoin (as well as a dozen others), as well as existing currencies. The fun is just beginning.

Regulatory Damnation #34: Tariffs

While taxes alone are not damning, as taxes, like death, are one of the only two certainties in life, tariffs, on the other hand, are one of the ongoing nightmares of the Procurement world. Tariffs make the complete personal income tax code of the United States look like a kindergarten book.

For example, the current HTS (Harmonized Tariff Schedule) of the United States is 3,536 pages. And that’s just the US HTS code. The 2007 LIGIE for Mexico is 684 pages, and there have been hundreds of pages of amendments since then.

With 196 countries in the world today, extrapolating, that’s over 200,000 pages of HTS / HS (Harmonized System Code) classifications that an organization needs to be on top off to determine international import and export duty rates. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. It’s not just keeping track of rates, it’s figuring out the rates that apply. For example, let’s say you want gloves, is it:

    4007.11.70 Leather - full grains   - glove and garment
    4017.12.70 Leather - split grain   - glove and garment
    4107.19.70 Leather - whole hide    - glove and garment 
    4017.91.70 Leather - other         - glove and garment
      ..
    4023.10.40 Apparel - articles      - gloves, mittens and mitts
    4203.29.XX Apparel - cowhide       - gloves
      ..
    6116.10.08 Gloves  - coated        - other
      ..
    6116.92.08 Gloves  - cotton        - other
      ..
    6116.93.08 Gloves  - synthetic     - other
      .. 
    6116.99.35 Gloves  - other textile - other
      ..
    6216.00.08 Gloves  - impregnated   - other
      ..

there are so many (dozens upon dozens of) classification of gloves, that it’s hard to find the right one – and if you pick the wrong one, and especially if you pick the wrong one with a lower tariff rate, then your organization is at risk of significant fines and penalties.

So how do you deal with this? There’s only one way — get a trade market intelligence solution which is kept up to date by people around the globe as classification updates and rate changes come up and easily searchable by the average Procurement professional who is not an expert in H(T)S code structures. There aren’t a lot of options, but SI recently covered one company, Integration Point, that has been building such a solution for almost 10 years. Why do you need a third party? Integration Point, which maintains a global content team, made over 2 Million updates to their global H(T)S code database in 2014 in an attempt to keep up with the never ending string of updates that are regularly released by countries around the globe. (Some countries release updates on a weekly basis. For example, Brazil once updated its HS code 80 times in one year.)

Economic Damnation #05: Currency Strength

As indicated in the prologue to this series, there are dozens upon dozens of challenges being thrown at you as a Procurement professional on a daily basis. Causing you nothing but grief and agony, these damnations collectively do nothing but divert your attention from critical strategic planning, (should-cost) modelling, and supply assurance.

Today we are going to discuss damnation #05, currency strength — one of the ten economic damnations that we will cover before this series is over. This damnation is particularly relevant with the recent volatility in the Ruble, Renminbi (Yuan), and the petro-dollar — which might be used as a hedging strategy in some organizations.

Currency fluctuations can quickly destroy the best laid sourcing plans when sourcing internationally from countries that use a different currency, even if the contract is being executed in the currency used by the buyer.

In the situation where the contract is being executed in the currency used by the buyer, if that currency devalues against the currency being used by the supplier, then the supplier may not be able to afford to honour the contract without risking bankruptcy (as the supplier’s costs would exceed their sales). In this case, the supplier may simply cease to honour the contract.

In the situation where the contract is being executed in the currency used by the supplier, and if that currency increases significantly in value compared to the buyer’s currency, then the buyer may not be able to afford to buy from the supplier (as the buyer’s costs would exceed what the customers are willing to pay) and may be forced to break the contract (and risk the ramifications).

In either situation, there is a disruption in supply and the potential for significant financial and legal ramifications down the road. And this is one damnation that is never going away as currencies never remain stable. And while it will forever damn us, it is not always impossible to predict when currencies are likely to fluctuate.

How? Through the use of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), we can determine when a currency is undervalued and when it is likely to rise in the future or when a currency is overvalued and when it is likely to fall in the future. It’s not perfect, but it’s better than flying blind. (For a good definition of PPP rate, review Dick Locke’s classic post on Undervalued Currencies, Part I).

So how do you determine PPP? One way is to simply look them up on the World Bank site. And how do you determine if a currency is over or under valued? You compare the official exchange rate to the PPP rate. If the PPP is (significantly) greater than the exchange rate, then the currency is undervalued. But if the PPP is (significantly) less than the exchange rate, then the currency is overvalued. How much? Divide the rates to get a percentage.

So how do you put this to use? Since floating currencies don’t always settle near the PPP rate, which some analysts are prone to believe, you look at historical variations and see where the trend over time is. If the currency is undervalued by 30% but the historical trend is that the currency is only undervalued by 20%, then it is likely that the currency is going to rise and that should be taken account in one’s projections. But if the currency is undervalued by 15% and is historically undervalued by 25%, then it is likely that the currency is going to fall. (For a more detailed explanation and example calculations, see Dick Locke’s classic post on Undervalued Currencies, Part II.)

Now, this won’t account for the situations where one country, like the US, is intentionally lowering the value of a major market resource or currency basket, like the petro-dollar, in the hopes of decreasing the value of another market resource or currency, like the Ruble, in the hopes of weakening an economy, like Russia, as these situations can only be detected by geopolitical (trade) monitoring (which will be discussed when we cover damnation #25, among others), but it will give you a much better understanding of relative currency strength and how the currency value is likely to change over time based on historical trends.

Procurement Trend #07. Supplier Pre-Payment

Four anti-trends remain. We can count them on one-hand’s worth of fingers, but like LOLCat, we feel more compelled to provide examples of how far beyond retro the futurists really are when they provide us examples of trends that anyone who bothered to poke their head over their cubicle wall thirty years ago (or outside the yurt three thousand years ago) would have noticed. However, we’ll leave their bitter humiliation for LOLCat, who is obviously received very little enjoyment from this series, but still found the time to point out how LOLCats have been sustainable at least since the first corrugated cardboard box was created and instead focus on dispelling the myths the futurists continue to propagate.

So why do these Rip van Winkles keep pushing upon us trends from yesteryear? Besides the fact that some of them obviously spent the best part of last decade napping, probably because they look around, see the laggard organizations still caught in the muck, and assume they can still sell last decade’s leftover snake oil in today’s marketplace. Why do they think Supplier Prepayment is today’s cure?

  • suppliers in emerging and even recently emerged countries may not have easy access to short-term financing
    which may mean that payday loans or family* loans may be required and as a result
  • interest rates vary and suppliers’ interest rates may be much higher than yours
    and costing the supplier, and thus you, 3% or 4% a month, not per annum
  • early payment can be the difference between blood red and black
    because with 36% APR loans, they double every 24 months a borrower doesn’t make a payment

So what does this mean?

Know the True Cost of DPO

How much is 30 day, 60 day, 90 day and 180 day DPO, from the time the supplier starts producing your order, really costing the supplier and, hence, since that costs needs to be built into their price, costing you?

Know the True Return on DPO extension

If the only reason to extend DPO is to get 2% annual interest in a short-term cash deposit, and this extension of DPO costs your supplier 24% annual interest, are you really making money off of this? If, however, you have the 1 in 100,000 situation where paying on time requires a loan from your bank at 12% and your supplier is on-shore, being government funded, and getting development capital at 6%, then in this case it actually makes sense to extend DPO until you are in a better position as it only increase the supply chain cost 6% instead of 12%. But this is probably a 1 in 100,000 situation.

Know what alternative investments net

Decreasing DPO might decrease supply chain cost, but if that investment requires smaller LTL (Less Than Truckload) orders and faster inventory turnover, this could cost more in the long run as FTL (Full TruckLoad) is cheaper and stock-outs cost revenue. Throw all the numbers, good and bad, into an optimization model and figure out what the best choice really is. Sometimes it will be early payment, or even pre-payment, of the supply base, and sometimes it won’t.

* Not their family, the family, capiche?

It’s Illegal to Burn Money, But Yet Your Organization Does It Every Day! (So Find Out How to Do Something About It!)

Title 18, Section 33 of the United States Code says you shall not mutilate, cut, disfigure, perforate, unite or cement together, or do any other thing to any bank bill, draft, note, or other evidence of debt issued by any national banking association, Federal Reserve Bank, or Federal Reserve System, with intent to render such item(s) unfit to be reissued and if you do, you can be fined or imprisoned for up to 6 months. But yet, every day, organizations everywhere collectively flush billions of dollars down the drain, overpaying suppliers, including foreign suppliers, millions of dollars that can not be recovered and reissued by the organization for other business purposes.

If it wasn’t for the fact that the vast majority of these organizations don’t intend to overpay and waste money, since this money (and evidence of debt) flows through the American banking system, I would otherwise be inclined to argue that, technically, this gross incompetence in management of corporate funds is criminal.

For proof that the average organization wastes money, we simply have to look to the audit recovery industry which recovers, on average 1% to 1.5% of annual spend. And, typically, this is just what they can find with a quick, mostly manual, review of the top n suppliers that account for 2/3rds (66%) to 3/4ths (75%) of external organizational spend using a very loose interpretation of the 80/20 rule. And that’s just overspend. What about spend that should never of happened in the first place (because it was off-contract and 15% higher than contracted rates)? Or unrecoverable losses due to a key supplier not having mandatory insurance policies in place? Or gross violations of the T&E (Travel & Expense) policy (that border on criminal malfeasance) where the VP of Sales decides that a dinner costing 2K / head at the local strip club is a valid use of the organization’s P-Card?

But most of these situations are easily preventable by a Procurement system that is designed to not only enforce compliance, but make it easy. To find out how, check out Sourcing Innovation’s New White Paper on The Procurement Marketplace and the Power of Compliance (registration), sponsored by Vinimaya.