Category Archives: Sourcing Future

Ariba Vision 2020: Tomorrow’s Shoes (Part I)

This is the first of two posts that address the fourteen predictions that were dead on in Ariba’s “Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement” report. Any Supply Management organization that recognizes the truth of these predictions is well on its way to formulating a plan to be a leading Supply Management organization in the decade ahead.

01. Everything is automated

This prediction is dead-on. Next Generation Supply Management shops are investing heavily in technology to automate all non-strategic and low-value supply management activities, leaving the sourcing professionals to focus on strategic and high-value categories where they can extract the most value for the organization.

07. Spend management shrinks

I’ve said it before, and I will say it again: Spend Matters Not. It’s not how much you spend, how you store it, how you cube it, or how you report on it — what ultimately matters is how much you get from it, profit from it, and derive value from it. Next Generation Supply Management organizations are focussed on improving business outcomes, not cutting costs until quality and stability of supply suffer. Spend Management will shrink as true Supply Management focussed on value takes its place.

09. Service providers excel

Given the increasing cost of outsourcing complex and strategic functions to emerging economies where labour rates are rising exponentially, in order to maintain cost competitiveness and deliver value, the service providers will provide service that constantly improves in efficiency and execution.

13. Let’s get financial

Since overall financial success will still be the ultimate measure of value generation in public enterprises, Supply Management will revolve around the financial supply chain and will be heavily involved in optimizing cash flows, working capital, and financing programs from NPD through return and disposal.

14. SM pros get sophisticated

Supply Management professionals will definitely be much more sophisticated in 2020 than they are today. As the secret agents that essentially drive all aspects of the business, their business savvy, analytical capabilities, relationship skills, and overall execution abilities will be, for the most part, a level above where they are today.

15. Supply pros expand expertise

This is the obvious result of a supply managmeent professional getting more sophisticated. It should not have been included as a separate prediction because it’s impossible to get more sophisticated in Supply Management without expanding depth of expertise in key areas.

16. Strategy scope widens

One does not get to the next level by maintaining a narrow focus, so it should also be obvious that the scope of strategy addressed by an average Supply Management organization is going to expand as well. The strategy will be more closely aligned with the needs of the organization’s end customers and be more cognizant of the needs of the current, and future, customer base. Supply Management will be increasingly called upon not only to analyze merger and acquisition possibilities, but to lead the initiative as success will depend upon succesfull integration of the end-to-end supply chains. And it will be involved in all NPD from day one to help identify customer needs and supplier capabilities before any decisions are made.

The next post will address the other seven predictions that were dead-on.

Ariba Vision 2020: Today’s Blues

The following six predictions from “Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement”, which would have been good if made before 2005 for 2010, are outdated and clearly come from Procurement professionals in organizations that are still in the laggard category as they define situtations that should either now be, or be in the process of becoming, standard modus operandi for a leading Supply Management organization.

04. Communities collaborate

Not only have we had virtual communities since 1996 when Geocities (which launched as BHI in 1995) hit the scene, but we have had collaborating communities in the enterprise for over 10 years now. Even Innocentive has been around since 2001! And while it’s true that communities haven’t been around nearly as long in Supply Chain, with the help of Ariba (and the Ariba Exchange), Kinaxis (and the Supply Chain Expert Community), RollStream (and its social supply chain solution that was recently acquired by GXS), communities are now normal operating procedure in leading Supply Managment organizations.

17. Talent competition heats up

The Talent Competition is already at the boiling point. Now that the economy is recovering, the last of the baby boomers are about to recover in droves at a time when there aren’t enough Supply Management professionals to begin with (as there are no programs out there that mint new Supply Management professionals for your organization to hire, as per SI’s post on the derth of Supply Chain Education). In fact, by 2014, the problem will be so bad that it will be #1 on every CPO list. And any organization that is struggling that does not address the problem now will not be around by 2020 to deal with it.

19. Enter the extended enterprise

For many global multi-nationals and leading Supply Management organizations that have outsourced, offshored, and rightshored over the last few years, the extended enterprise is already here and part of daily operational life. And this holds true for a number of product and service companies in the Global 3000.

22. Bye products, hello solutions

The crunch of the last few years resulted in many suppliers adopting a solution focus as they attempted to retain what little business their was. They went beyond simply providing a product to providing a solution around that product, including repair and warranty services, training services, and, in some cases, even consulting services. They embraced not only VMI (Vendor Managed Inventory) but VMS (Vendor Managed Services) in an effort to make themselves indispensible to their clients.

28. Contracts motivate

Well designed contracts that offer the right incentives and allocate the risks appropriately already motivate top tier suppliers to perform better to get a larger slice of the pie. If a contract offers a supplier a 10% reward for a 3% increase in service level, then, as long as it doesn’t increase the supplier’s costs by 10% to achieve a 3% increase in service level, it happens. It might take a while, but motivated suppliers get the job done when monetary rewards are involved.

29. Firms wake up to supply risk

The recent volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull and Puyehue that have grounded flights across the better part of a continent, the recent tsunami that devastated Japan and resulted in nuclear disasters in addition to long term supply disruptions, and the recent increase in droughts, fires, and hurricanes (thanks to global warming) that have resulted in decreased crop levels and huge spikes in basic food commodity costs have already woken up any supply management professional that is still breathing to supply risk and the need to address it. And even though most firms may not yet have the answers, they know they need them.

The next post will address Tomorrow’s Shoes.

Ariba Vision 2020: Yesterday’s News

The following three predictions from Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement were totally off the mark and, in SI’s view, could only have been made by someone living in a Procurement cave for the last 10 years as any organization that thinks these define a future state of Procurement has a lot of catching up to do.

03. Work goes mobile
Work has been mobile among the IT crowd for about a decade now and among the (management) consulting crowd for over five years. Just because some organizations are slow to catch on to the fact that modern technology allows you to work anywhere, anytime and keep in touch 24/7 through real-time video conferencing does not mean that it is visionary for an organization to finally latch on to this fact. Furthermore, any organization that takes another 10 years to latch on to this realization is probably not going to be in good shape in 10 years.

19. It’s complicated

Uhm, it’s been complicated for over a decade. It’s been complicated ever since the first Fortune 500’s first started to outsource critical manufacturing processes to India and China a couple of decades ago. And while the risks and complications will continue to change as the focus shifts to different emerging economies, it’s not going to get any riskier or complicated as a whole. There’ll be more awareness of the risks, which will appear to materialize more frequently as more operations are shifted global, but the risks and complications will be fundamentally no different than they were 20+ years ago.

20. It takes a network

Just like it’s been complicated since global sourcing started to materialize among the Supply Management leaders in the late 80s, it’s taken a network ever since the manufacturing giants (in automotive and consumer goods in particular) started outsourcing assemblies to tier 1 suppliers that integrated components from tier 2 suppliers. And the major Consumer Goods companies realized in the 90’s that in house was not enough. P&G laid the foundations for Innocentive in the 90s at the same time Unilever was focussed on developing better supplier networks across its global markets.

The next post will address Today’s Blues.

Ariba Needs to Get Its Prescription Checked

Ariba recently released “Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement”, which was intended to define what the Procurement function is going to look like in 2020. While it was a noble effort, it would appear that Ariba needs to get its prescription checked. While almost half of the predictions were on the mark, and others were close, some define the state of Procurement today, some define the state of Procurement yesterday, and some were just out to lunch. Since you know I can’t leave unanswered any report that I know is going to be taken as influential when it is not 100%, I am going to address each prediction one by one over the next six posts.

In particular, this series will divide the predictions into five categories:

  • Yesterday’s News
    These predictions clearly missed the boat that sailed a long time ago. Any organization that thinks this is Supply Management 2020 needs to take a close look at Supply Management 2000.
  • Today’s Blues
    These predictions would have been good if made in 2005 for 2010, as even though many of the capabilities have been around for a few years, most did not start to be adopted by leading Supply Management organizations until after 2005.
  • Tomorrow’s Shoes
    These predictions hit the mark. Leading Supply Management organizations are starting to embark on the journey that will see them realize these capabilities within 10 years, as they are necessary for these organizations to get to the next level of supply management.
  • Close, but no Cigar
    These predictions were close, but either went a little too far or a little to the side.
  • I Hope it’s Just a Ruse
    I don’t know where these predictions came from. They’re totally off base and anyone banking on them is in for a surprise.

Stay tuned! Agree or disagree, you can chime in with a comment or, according to the paper, join the conversation on the Ariba Exchange if you’re a registered member. SI prefers open discussions, but to each his own.

The Technology Waves Are Always Washing Up On the Shore

But they don’t always make a lasting impression. So how do you know which ones precede a tsunami?

It’s hard to say, but like a tsunami, the waves are not caused by hot air (wind) but deep movements within the (end) user community (geological effects). If you keep this in mind, it is more likely that you will be able to identify the technology waves that will reshape the business landscape.

And you will be able to make sense of this recent report on “the technology waves that are reshaping the business landscape” by Accenture. In the report, Accenture identifies eight trends driving the future of information technology. Some of significant, others not so much. Let’s take them one-by-one.

  • Application Services as Utilities
    One just has to look at the massive success of Apple’s App Store to realize that the end user mindset has shifted from applications as large monolithic software packages locally installed from CDs and heavily supported by local users to to small, point-based solutions, which can be installed from, and live in, “the cloud” on-demand. Where consumers go, businesses, which employ the same consumers, must follow.
  • “Social Identities”
    Facebook has proven that “social identities” are important to our online society. And with a number of “enterprise” platforms working on integrating social technologies, it’s clear this is a significant shift that will shape application design for years to come.
  • Cloud Computing
    Amazon, Google, and other big providers have proven that a number of businesses, for better or worse, want to move to “the cloud”. This is another shift that is here to stay.
  • Analytics
    We’ve been talking about analytics and BI for years, but there’s never really been a sharp jump in demand to identify BI as the next big thing or to indicate that it will be any more important in the year to come than it was in the year before.
  • Data Security
    Security has been a constant issue for over a decade, and the need for security is no greater this year than last year. And most firms are still of the mindset where they are only going to take this seriously when they get breached.
  • Data Privacy
    Data Privacy, which was big in the 90’s, thanks to Facebook, is now big again. The widespread, public, backlash to Facebook’s initial lack of privacy, and controversial privacy agreements, has re-ignited the privacy debate across the globe and privacy is now under the microscope again.
  • Architecture
    Architecture is obviously going to shift as applications move from monolithic software packages to on-demand utilities, but since consumers don’t really care about architecture, it’s going to take a back seat to the application-on-demand movement.
  • User Experience
    Today’s users demand the Rich Internet Application experience. Thanks to Adobe, Apple, and other companies focussed on the user experience, consumers expect a constantly improving experience. This wave is also growing.

Net result, applications as utility on demand, the cloud, social identity, privacy, and user experience will play a major role in technology in the years to come, but analysis, data security, and architecture, will continue to take a back seat to these more prominent issues.