Category Archives: Economics

The Talent War Has Just Begun!

This was a central theme of the NPX keynote by Don Klock, Clinical Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management & Marketing Science at Rutgers Business School, a Senior Global Procurement / Supply Chain Executive with over 30 years of experience with multiple major multinationals, including Colgate Palmolive.

Even though unemployment is still near a fifty-five (55) year plus all time high, which was around 10.5% back in the early 80s, it’s becoming harder and harder to fill vacant positions due to the shift in the North American economy which resulted in most Blue Collar jobs being outsourced and the need for more highly skilled white collar workers than the North American economy has traditionally produced. Couple this with declining birth rates in the developed and developing world (even though the global population just hit 7 Billion) and a relatively constant number of University graduates over the last 5 years in North America (approximately 3 Million a year in the US, which is less than 1% of the US population attaining a University degree each year), and the problem starts to take shape. There’s not enough blue collar jobs for those without college degrees, and more jobs that require college degrees and experience than there are college graduates to fill them. When you break down the unemployment rate, as this article in MarketWatch on the “white-collar recession, blue-collar depression” did last year, when the official overall U.S. unemployment rate was 9.6%, and the “underemployment” rate topped 17%, you find that unemployment is less than 4.5% among college graduates vs about 10.8% for those with a high-school diploma and 14.3% for those without one.

This is largely due to the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs, which have decreased 40% over the last 20 years. The jobs that remain are outsourcing and supply chain management, which involve a lot of skill, experience, and education — which a large percentage of the U.S. population does not have. That’s why we have large multinationals with 500 jobs and no one to fill them!

That’s why, as Don says, the demand for suitably qualified procurement professionals is on the rise and the job of retention and recruiting talent is much more difficult than it has been historically. And that’s why, if your organization is to survive the supply chain talent war, it needs a supply chain resource strategy. Without one, your organization will be left in the dust as your competitors acquire the limited supply of talent that is currently available.

So what should you do? We’ll discuss Don’s suggestion in our next post on the talent gap.

The BRIC is Becoming Really Investment Critical

As per this recent article over on World Trade 100, it’s time to ask if “your company [is] ready to export to BRIC”, it’s time to start thinking about exporting to BRIC countries because:

  • 45% of global GDP is estimated to originate from seven emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey, and Indonesia
  • it is estimated 55% to 60% of the nearly one billion households that will have incomes in excess of 20,000 will be from the developing world within a decade

However, one thing that needs to be noted is that many of these countries have sub-markets, and if the products aren’t localized to the sub-markets, it could be difficult to maximize your return. For example, China has 20 to 40 different sub-markets on its own. And some of these markets are only two hours apart. For example, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are both tier-one cities in China, located in the same province and just two hours apart but there is a marked cultural difference between the two. According to a study done by McKinsey, “Guangzhou’s people mainly speak Cantonese, are mostly locally born, and like to spend time at home with family and friends. In contrast, more than 80 percent of Shenzhen’s residents are young migrants, from all across the country, who mainly speak Mandarin and spend most of their time away from their homes”.

The article has some good thoughts to keep in mind when planning to expand into China, India, Brazil, and Russia. So ask yourself, “Is Your Company Ready to Export to BRIC?”.

Patent Pirates Are Still Plundering

According to this recent article over on CNN Money, patent trolls have cost investors Half A Trillion Dollars over the last 20 years. Half A Trillion Dollars! That’s an awful lot of innovation down the drain!

At this point, I’m wondering which pirates are worse? The pirates off the coast of Somalia, who have escalated their attacks and brought ocean piracy to an all time high this year, with 142 attacks in the first quarter alone (and 346 attacks as of September 27). Now, it’s true that the attacks are sometimes violent and that 15 people have been killed this year, but for the most part, the Somali pirates are more focussed on taking hostages in return for ransoms, and release the hostages when they get the ransom. And while the ransoms are getting higher, with the average ransom reaching 5.4 Million in 2010, total payments in 2010 were only 238 Million. Yes, this is a big number, and 20 times 238 Million is a bigger number at 4.76 Billion, but that’s only 1% of losses that can be attributed to patent pirates. One percent!

And the “contributions” that the patent trolls supposedly make to innovation are essentially nonexistent. They’ve funnelled less than 10 Billion to R&D, or less than 1/50th of what they’ve cost investors and innovators. All they do is create a disincentive to innovate. And in SI’s view, they should be made to walk the plank.

Stop Hoarding and Invest In Your Supply Chain

By now you might think SI is a broken record, since this is the third day in a row it has complained about the fact that the “Global 2000” are hoarding cash like it’s never to be seen again, but when even Forbes.com decides companies are hoarding too much cash, as per its recent article on how cash isn’t king, this should drive the point home.

And the situation is even worse than Financial Director and Hackett reported. According to a recent Forbes article, the Federal Reserve reported in June that U.S. businesses were saving cash at unprecedented levels, with balances climbing to 1.9 Trillion! That’s 2.23 times the cash reserves of the top 1000. If the situation is the same in Europe, cash reserves must be topping 1.6 Trillion Euros (or 2.16 Trillion US). That’s an estimated 4 Trillion in cash reserves! To put this in perspective, this is 100 Million jobs for one year at the average US salary, and unemployment is roughly 74.7 Million across the US and the EU. Get the picture?

Now, saving for a rainy day sometimes makes sense, but when you start saving to the point where even your investors are concerned that cash is not being put to work earning a reasonable return, not only are you helping to tank the economy, but you are biting the hand that feeds. And given that, due to the lack of innovation and planning, which is largely due to the lack of manpower to do innovation and planning, your transportation costs are about to soar, your commodity costs are rising across the board, and your current talent pool is overworked, unhappy, and ready to change jobs as soon as the next better offer comes along (with job satisfaction at an all time low), how much longer can you really afford not to invest in new talent and new technology to help them innovate your way to a better future?

Then, as the Forbes article points out, as the ever increasing gap between high-quality borrowers (you) and low quality borrowers (your cash-poor suppliers) widens, more and more of your suppliers will experience cash flow issues (as you are not only hoarding all your cash, but borrowing from limited funding reserves to do so). This will lead some into bankruptcy and failure, which will create disruptions in the supply chain that will disrupt your operations and cost you sales and brand equity and, in the end, time and resources to regain your customers’ trust. But all of this can be prevented by investing into your supply chain up front. It’s your choice. Spend and profit. Or hoard and lose.

Is Good Corporate Citizenship At An All Time Low?

In yesterday’s post we noted that “working capital has bounced back” in Europe and that Europe’s biggest companies have seen the most significant revenue growth in five years. We also noted that, at the same time, these same companies are hoarding their cash and, in many cases, borrowing to do so, while smaller companies remain starved for capital and unemployment remains near 10% in the EU. And SI stated that this is, in its view, disgusting. A lack of jobs is resulting in significantly reduced spending across the board because the people out of work can’t spend while the rest of the people are fearing that they are next on the chopping block given that it’s been all bad news in the job market for a few years now. This reduced spending has significantly contributed to the global economic decline which has brought entire countries to the brink of defaulting on their (sovereign) debt.

Now, as per this recent article over on BNet on how “bad corporate management is killing the economy”, we find out, from a recent study by CFO Magazine and REL (a division of The Hackett Group), the thousand largest companies in the US are sitting on cash reserves of 853 Billion. Given the relative equality between the power, and cash position, of US and European multinationals these days, it’s probably a safe bet to say that the Global 2000 is probably sitting on 1.5 Trillion in cash reserves. Now, while it may be true that this is likely not enough to solve the economic crises of the world, given that the US National Debt is almost 15 Trillion, we have to remember that there are only 11 countries in the world with a GDP greater than 1.5 Trillion. We also have to remember that the national average wage in the US is slightly under 41 K, and that this means that these companies could collectively employ another 36.5M people for one year without going into debt. To put this in perspective, at the current published unemployment rates, there are only 27.9 M unemployed people in the US and 46.8 M unemployed people in the EU. That means half of the unemployed people could be working at the top 2,000 corporations in the US and the EU. This would give effective unemployment rates of 4.5 and 4.8 in the US and the EU. The last time the unemployment rate dropped below 4.6 in the US was back in 2000, and the economy was booming.

So while it’s not an absolute that corporations can fix the economy, it should be pretty clear that the author is right and that big corporations are killing the economy when they could be the economic saviours. Instead of hoarding cash, they should be focussed on innovation and hiring bodies to propel that innovation forward. That’s how you print money in a knowledge economy, and with the current state of affairs in most public sectors and banks around the world, they are the only organization left with a license to print cash. But they have to be willing to use it.