Category Archives: Market Intelligence

Is it Time to Stop Blaming Governments and Start Blaming Economists for All the Economic Turmoil?

How many recessions has North America had in the last two decades? How long has the Eurozone crisis been going on? Does anyone know anymore? It’s been nothing but doom and gloom for years. Doom and gloom which immediately followed periods of growth that was too rapid or optimism that was too unfounded. What the heck happened?

We can blame the governments for failing to keep the currencies in check and failing to invest in innovation and jobs, we can blame the private sector for trying to rampage out of control, or we can blame the economists who give everyone bad advice. Maybe that’s what we should be doing. According to some very recent research, by Emre Soyer and Robin Hogarth, which is being published in a special section in the July-September 2012 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, we have “The Illusion of Predictability” [preprint] (How Regression Statistics Mislead Experts) which can be succinctly summarized by saying “economists are overconfident [and] so are you” (as summarized by Justin Fox over on the HBR blogs).

Soyer and Hogarth did a study with 257 economists who were asked to read about a regression analysis that related independent variable X to dependent variable Y and then answer questions about the probabilities of various outcomes. When the results were presented in the typical manner (as average outcomes followed by a few error terms), the economists did a really bad job of answering the questions. They paid too much attention to the averages, and too little to the uncertainties inherent in them, thereby displaying too much confidence. Moreover, they did only slightly better when they were shown the numerical results plus scatter graphs. Only the economists who were shown only the graphs actually got most of the answers [close to] right.

In other words, when the data is presented in standard form, statistically literate experts are just as likely to glom (glom glom) onto the point estimate and discount the uncertainty as innumerate journalists and make the same mistakes. (They could use Pinky and the Brain’s refresher refresher lesson on statistics.) Ouch!

We in Supply Management know that the world is often much less predictable than economists would lead us to believe — having to deal with the effects of demand spikes, supply shortages, currency fluctuations, labour strikes, and natural disasters on a(n almost) weekly basis — and that no economic model is going to capture the full extent of the reality of the situation. It’s too bad that an average economist doesn’t, because if (s)he did, then maybe the advice wold be better, and the markets would, as a result of more rational actions, be more stable and make our job a little easier. In the interim, we can do our part by making sure that we help procure any services that require an economist or economic analysis and insure that such economist or group has a tendency for presenting, and analyzing data, the right way without unnecessary exuberance, one way or the other. Because this result, captured in the preprint, is scary:


72% of the participants believe that for an individual to obtain a positive outcome with 95% probability, a small X (X < 10) would be enough, given the regression results. A majority state that any small positive amount of X would be sufficient to obtain a positive outcome with 95% probability. However, in order to obtain a positive outcome with 95% probability, a decision maker should choose approximately X=47.

Simple math says that the majority of the participants were off by a factor of 5 (or more). Ouch! Late last year the BBC ran a point of view article that said we should beware of experts when it comes to running things. Maybe they were right!

Informationalization Is Important

Simply put, the more informed you are, the better you are going to be able to source and procure. And this recent article over on the HBR blogs on why you need to integrate data into products, or get left behind just scratches the surface.

As the post notes, virtually every product and service can be made more valuable through informationalization. The GPS example provided is classic. Turn-by-turn directions make the car more valuable as the driver can keep his eyes on the road, get to his destination faster, and, during delivery, avoid left turns that just lead to extended idling at busy intersections. And, as predicted by Stewart Taggert, half of the value in the delivery of a shipping container from halfway around the world would be in the data associated with the container. Good information allows you to calculate in-transit time, and associated costs, loading and unloading costs, storage costs, insurance costs (as you can appropriately determine the chance of accidental loss or theft), etc.

But the best example of the value of informationalization is how it allows you to optimize your sourcing decisions. The more you know about your product options, shipping options, associated costs, and the inherent value of each product versus your other options, the more accurately you can model your options. The more accurately you can model your options, the better chance you have of determining the solution with the lowest cost, the lowest risk, the highest value, and the best value (defined as risk reduction, profit generation capability, etc — whatever makes sense) to cost ratio. And this is how leading Supply Management organizations can save 12%, on average, off-the-top in an optimization-enabled sourcing event — and even more if they collaboratively work with their peers to identify all of the options that may be available and all of the associated tradeoffs. As pointed out in SI’s recent paper on “Top Ten Technologies for Supply Management Savings Today”, integrated, collaborative sourcing can often identify savings opportunities of up to 30% or 40% on categories that were exhaustively combed for savings in the past.

Plus, good information allows your organization to:

  1. constantly improve products and services by way of the fact that you are able to
  2. collect more relevant, timely, accurate, detailed, and integrated data.

And when you have relevant, timely, accurate, detailed, and integrated data, you can take out your best-of-breed data analysis tool, use the tips and tricks SI outlined in it’s free e-book (co-authored by Bernard Gunther of Lexington Analytics, now a division of Opera Solutions) on Spend Visibility: An Implementation Guide, and extract even more value for the organization by optimizing not just Supply Management spend, but utilization, service, warranties, Marketing & Legal spend, and every other product and service activity that burns capital and/or creates organizational value.

For a Good Lesson in e-Procurement System Selection, Ask Discount Tires.

This winter, Chief Executive ran an article on The Synergy Mirage: A Case Study that had a great lesson for every Supply Management team looking to select an e-Procurement system with the intent that anyone in the organization who wants to order something will use it. The lesson was simple:

Customers don’t want to buy new tires. They need to buy new tires. It’s expensive and it takes time out of their day. As a competitor, [Chairman] [Bruce] Halle benefited from making the process somewhat less expensive and taking less of the customer’s time. He also spent extra time cleaning up the shop, including the bathrooms, to make the customer visit a bit more comfortable. Customers appreciated the discount that came with the off-brand products Halle offered, but they also appreciated the opportunity to leave as soon as possible.

Similarly, in your organization:

Administrative assistants don’t want to place re-orders for toner cartridges. Engineers don’t want to have to order new workstations and business analysts don’t want to have to buy reams of papers. And office managers definitely don’t want to order pens. They need toner, computers, paper and pens to do their jobs (and make sure their coworkers can do theirs). Finding the best value for the organization is not their strength and it takes too much time out of their already too busy day. They want a process that is easy and quick. They want to find what they want as fast as possible, place the order, make it someone else’s problem, and get back to their job. And if they have to do it anyway, they would like an experience that is clean, comfortable, and relatively stress free. (And if they have to fill out 17 fracking forms to procure a single pencil they have two choices: pull out their hair and go postal in the classic sense, or just not do it.) They appreciate a tool that simplifies their life and lets them get back to their job as soon as possible.

So if you want to be the organization with 90%+ e-Procurement system penetration (as opposed to the one with 30% to 40% e-Procurement system penetration), you better make sure that whatever e-Procurement system you select is trivially easy to use and designed to make the location and ordering of a particular item quick and easy. Otherwise, you’ll just be buying more shelf-ware. There’s a reason that companies like b-pack, BravoSolution, Coupa, Iasta, and iValua are tearing up the middle market. They get that systems have to be easy to use. And there’s a single reason in particular that BravoSolution is making waves in the Fortune X where only Ariba and Emptoris used to play and that Coupa has reached the upper end of the Mid-Market (and started to sneak into a few Fortune X’s) in five-short years. Their systems are about ease of use. In all of these examples, their systems are about allowing a user to do what they need to do and get back to the more important aspects of their job. And, most importantly, their systems are about customer success.

And that’s also why you are going to see new waves forming in the Fortune X. Companies like hubwoo, IBX, and Wallmedian in particular are each going to make a [big] splash as their focus on helping Fortune X clients stuck on SAP get more value from their ERP system (from a Supply Management Perspective) with a lot less pain is going to start paying off as SAP gets stuck in the Fusion quagmire trying to integrate its latest acquisition. Watch for Wallmedian in particular, a name you’re probably unaware of on this side of Atlantic, to come over and pull a BravoSolution in the Fortune X SAP user base. (Remember when we didn’t know who BravoSolution was on this side of the Atlantic? It wasn’t that long ago and now with Ariba swallowed, they will soon be one of the biggest stand alone names out there in the Supply Management space.)

How Do You Find an Innovative New Vendor?

Brian Sommer over on ZDNet just ran a great post on how to easily identify the up and coming innovative vendors in the space. All you have to do is look at who the big established players are trash talking! After all, if the company isn’t innovative, they have nothing to fear from the competitor, and will say something like “yes they also have a solution suite that could potentially help you, but” … “they are missing these key features that we have found to be instrumental to customer success” or “we have done more implementations in your space” or “we have a more mature professional services organization” or “we fit better with the platforms and processes that you have in place” or “we are more committed to customer success” or “we have won more awards proving the maturity of our solution” and just shrug them off. But if the company is innovative and poses a real threat, they will try to trash-talk it out of your candidate pool. And they will use predictable language like “what they are offering is a cool feature, not an application” or “they’re inconsequential” or “their solution is immature and / or will never catch on“. These phrases are your first clue that this is a vendor you should be looking at. It might not be mature enough to meet all of your needs today, but maybe if you can bolt on the innovative new features they are offing to your existing ERP, you can, with a little elbow grease, extract more value and, as the company grows, be the first to take advantage of their new features and applications as an early adopter preferred customer.

And not only did Brian do a great job of pointing this out, he also created a great table that summarizes all of the common phrases an established, fairly un-innovative, company will use to trash talk an innovative startup in its infancy, a rapidly growing new competitor, and an upstart that’s all grown up now. And then, to complete the picture, he also points out what they say when the decide to acquire the grown up upstart because it has a more innovative solution.

Click this link to read Brian’s full post on the Software Smack Talk Playbook. It’s awesome.

 

What Elements Are Truly Necessary To Prevent Missing Links in Your Supply Chain?

A recent article in Canadian Transportation & Logistics that asked “where the missing links in your supply chain are” did a great job of of pointing out that when it comes to supply chains, what you see is what you get. And it often is the situation that the more you can see into the chain, the more benefits you can receive.

It also hit the nail on the head when it noted that the ability to view timely, accurate information from the beginning of the chain to the end is essential for:

  • reliable forecasting
  • accurate decision making
  • minimizing risks
  • optimizing inventory turnover
  • reducing days and costs in supply chain cycles
  • healthy cash flow and profits
  • customer satisfaction
  • competitive advantage

But when most companies rely on a patchwork of systems and software to address supplier management, purchase order processing, receipt of goods and inventory management, did it have the right checklist of critical system and software capabilities required to avoid the critical missing links that are currently present in most enterprises that are not Supply Management Leaders?

The article identified these necessary elements, which we’ll take one by one:

  • Real-time detailed visibility into every key juncture
    i.e. demand, procurement, production, transportation, and inventory and accounts payable (to make sure the invoices match the order), market data (to make sure quotes are reasonable), risk data (to detect potential volatility or issues as soon as the signals appear), and trade data (to inform you on issues of regulatory and customs compliance)
  • portals connecting the entire supply chain from order through deliver
    what year is this? 2002? there has to be e-integration all the way down through you supplier, and their suppliers, to raw material providers for key or scarce raw materials, but it doesn’t have to be a portal; heck, it could be as simple as the pull of a daily update EDI file from a secure FTP server or as complex as real-time asynchronous communication between multiple databases in a replication configuration
  • collaboration capabilities that allow stakeholders of the chain to readily share information on supply and delivery
    and communicate with each other, in real time, when they are both online
  • ability to integrate varying information formats from various supply chain partners
    which is a given and should be automatic; again, it’s 2012, not 2002
  • open-endedness with flexibility
    enabling easy modifications and integration with other systems and this is a definite must — avoid any system with proprietary integration methods
  • capability of generating alerts of events that require attention
    throughout the supply chain as most day-to-day management should be exception based, with the exceptions defined on your rules (and not the vendor’s)
  • ability to create “dashboards” that enable consolidate viewing of information from multiple sources
    in a manner that focuses on problem areas identified by missed metrics, bad data, missed data, or declining trends — generally speaking, you don’t care about the green, only the red

These were quite good, but it’s also very important not to overlook:

  • sourcing, procurement, logistics, and global trade solutions
    this could be one solution with dedicated sourcing, procurement, logistics, and global trade modules (or views) or multiple solutions that are interconnected — you need end-to-end sourcing to identify the right deal, procurement to secure it, logistics to get it delivered on target, and global trade to make sure there are no costly, disruptive snags
  • an analytic solution
    that lets you analyze trends and predict demand levels, market cost changes, and potential disruptions
  • out of the box ERP support
    because chances are that a number of supply chain partners are going to have one of the big ERP solutions and be relying on it at least partially
  • security
    as there will be a lot of sensitive data flowing back and forth — make sure it is encrpted and only accessible by authorized parties
  • adoption
    how many companies are currently using the solution, how big are they, how much third party support is there and what is the long term outlook for the solution

But if you can meet all of these requrements, and the collaboration flows, the the solution is probably going to prevent many of the critical missing links in many of today’s supply chains.