Category Archives: Supplier Management

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part VI: Zombie Dice, Tsuro, and Get Bit!

I’m enraptured to continue this one-of-a-kind summer series that will help you whether you are just interested in finding out about this new and exciting career opportunity, or ready to take your Supply Management career to the next level. Not only is it significantly more fun than counting grains of sand for an hourglass, but when you can grasp a lot of the basic concepts by playing the right mix of strategic (and sometimes tactical) board games with your friends, it’s three blasts squared.

I know we still have to tackle the economic games, like Puerto Rico and Dominion, but we’re gong to continue to make use of the fact that, thanks to the unequaled generosity of Wil Wheaton (@wilw) and Geek & Sundry, we have yet another marvelous TableTop episode where Wil introduces us to yet another great game — or, in this case, three great games. Until the tap runs dry, we are going to collect every precious drop of water that Wil is directing our way.

Wil gives us a very succinct introduction to each of the three games covered in TableTop Episode 3, starting with

Zombie Dice

is a press-your-luck dice game. We are all zombies trying to fill our undead bellies with delicious, delicious brains. On every turn, we will draw three dice from the cup. Each die represents a human survivor or, as we call them, lunch. We roll the dice. We then keep all of the brains and all of the shots to the face. Now we have a choice to make. We can stop, and score the brains, or we can press our luck. There’s one special die. It’s this guy, he’s the runner. If we choose to roll again, we have to include him in the three dice total because we haven’t caught him yet. You keep rolling until you are shot in the face three times or you choose to stop and score all of the brains in front of you. The first player to score thirteen or more brains wins.

Zombie Dice is a great game because it helps you understand the Wall Street mentality which, inevitably, leads to financial market meltdowns when left unchecked — just like the subprime mortgage crisis, the dot-com bubble, the speculative currency crises in Asia, Mexico, and Europe in the 1990s, the savings and loans crisis, the oil crisis, the crash of 1929, the shanghai rubber stock market crisis, the rail road panic of 1893, the gurney crisis, the danish state bankruptcy, the south sea bubble and the mississippi bubble, and the tulip mania. While financial market meltdowns are not a new phenomenon, thanks to the internet and the interconnectedness of the global financial markets, they are occurring more and more and will continue to do so as long as the unlimited risk mentality of Wall Street goes unchecked.

It’s critical that you understand this mentality, and the risks associated with it, because the more you try to limit your risk by playing the currency markets, the hedge funds, or even asset-based investments (like gold), the more types of risk you are actually opening yourself up to. If you don’t know what you’re doing, you’ll end up rolling red die after red die, which triples your chance of getting shot in the face.

In addition, what makes Zombie Dice truly great is that it also teaches us about the unpredictability of risk. You never know when you are going to get shot in the face with a supply disruption due to a natural disaster, a civil disturbance, or a quickly enacted political trade barrier, or how much damage it’s going to do. Supply Management is full of risk, and every time you place an overseas order, you could be rolling the dice.

Tsuro

is a path finding, tile laying game. We are flying dragons. On every turn, we will play a tile on the board. Every dragon touching that tile has to follow the path it makes to completion. … If you fly off the board, you are eliminated. If you crash into another dragon, you are eliminated.

This is a cool game because it forces you to think strategically, which is important in markets where demand exceeds supply and you have to outmaneuver your competition to insure that you always get what you need, and keep your organization on the board. It teaches you that you not only need to think about what you need, but if you are in a market where demand exceeds supply, what your competition needs so that you can lock up supply first.

Get Bit

is a bluffing game, designed by my friend Dave Chalker. We are all robots out for a leisurely swim in shark-infested waters. Each turn, to figure out which one of us is swimming the fastest, we will play a card from our hand, numbered one through five. The fastest number goes to the front of the line, and the slowest number will go to the back of the line. The robot who is closer to the shark gets bit. We each have four limbs. So if you are bitten four times, you become Anchor Bot 9000 and spend the rest of your days on the bottom of the sea.

This is a good companion game to Tsuro because, like Tsuro, it forces you to think strategically, but has the added advantage that it demonstrates what happens if your competition mirrors your movements — you both stand still while the other competitors in the market swim past you. You not only have to outmaneuver your competition in this space, you have to prevent them from blocking you.

What the Heck is a Supplier SuperCycle?

A recent post over on Procurement Leaders chronicled the results of July’s Procurement Intentions Index graphs that record changes in CPO strategy intentions over time, based on a survey of their CPO panel. According to the post, their results show the clear intention of CPOs to consolidate their supply chains by reducing the number of suppliers they work with, while, at the same time, spending more time collaborating with those that remain.

Based on these results, the author believes that the supplier collaboration and consolidation results are part of a “super-cycle” and that we will see the Index positions of both of these remain broadly the same for months if not years to come. That is until future CPOs believe they have reached the perfect number of suppliers and want to increase price competitiveness by taking more on board.

I don’t get it. I do agree that a subset of Supply Management organizations will be focussed on supply base consolidation and that a further subset of these will be focussed on collaboration in the hopes of mutual innovation, but I don’t think this is a super-cycle. A supercycle is a long period, or wave, in the growth of a market, as described by the Elliott Wave Principle. By definition, a super-cycle has to be market wide, and include all Supply Management organizations in all stages of maturity, not just the ones that are smart enough to be involved with a leading Procurement organization and respond to their surveys. While I do think that this is a mini-cycle in the above-average supply management organizations moving towards best-in-class status, most below-average organizations are still focussed on cost-reduction at any cost (to justify further investments in technology and transitions to better processes), and this typically involves auctions and negotiations that open up the procurement process to new bidders in hopes of getting more-cost effective, or higher-quality suppliers, for the organization.

This does mean that, as some organizations advance up the maturity curve, the mini-cycle will repeat, but then, as the post points out, the organizations that have optimized their supply-base will begin to open it up to new suppliers in an attempt to get even more value. Thus, if there was a super-cycle, it would be an oscillating contraction/expansion cycle that would emulate the cyclic cosmological model — an infinite contract/expand loop.

Diverging thoughts?

Can the US Post Office Be Fixed?

As chronicled in SI’s winter post that decided it was Too Bad the US Post Office Did Not Follow Royal Mail’s lead (before we got wind of the Royal Mail Fiasco), it’s old news that the US Post office is in dire straits. (No, no, not this Dire Straits. The US Post office definitely are not The Sultans of Swing.)

When you have more debt than 50+ countries have capita, that’s a bad thing, and not something a single (barrel) of sourcing projects is going to fix overnight. (Any operation hemorrhaging cash that bad should have hemorrhaged management years ago!) A drastic Supply Management-led transformation is required, but what should it look like? Obviously, Saturday service can be eliminated (as we Canucks do without it just fine), and obviously the sorting centres should be more efficient, but that’s a small drop in the labour and overhead categories relative to the 20 Billion the US Post Office needs to save (if it doesn’t want a good excuse to be shuttered).

Where should it start? Damn good question. Obviously, a technological transformation is a great place to start, but even the doctor is at a loss at how you cut 15 Billion when the bigger problem is obviously that you lost it in the first place! However, a few people are taking stabs at it, and this recent piece over in Progressive Railroading, on how Intermodal rail [is] a ‘sensible’ transportation option for U.S. Postal Service, that quoted a report recently issued by the U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General‘s Risk Analysis REsearch Office, showed someone has a head on their shoulders.

In “Strategic Advantages of Moving Mail by Rail”, shifting a portion of mail volume from tuck to intermodal rail could yield $100 Million in annual cost savings without requiring changes to the postal service’s network. Wow! Imagine how much could be saved if the network was optimized. I’m guessing double that, or more. If I’m right, that could yield 1 Billion in five years. With almost no effort!

They have to do something. As CNN notes, it’s a summer of discontent at [the] Postal Service. But given that it’s on the verge of defaulting on a $5.5 billion payment covering retiree health care due August 1, what can we expect?

At this point, I have to agree with Bob Ferrari, who, in his recent Friday Rant*, said that solving the problems of this agency involves a number of structural changes as well as an infusion of modern supply chain management practices related to efficiency and productivity. We have been clear that the U.S. needs a vibrant and efficient postal service and that may not necessarily equate to wholesale privatization. And, most important, there is an obvious need for a non-partisan, independent commission to oversee the process of re-structuring the USPS. Instead of audit agencies reacting to the obvious and pointing to required management changes, an independent commission should be tasked with a comprehensive look at how the USPS can be transformed to a highly efficient agency that instills modernized physical distribution and information management practices. Hear, hear! Let’s face it — 3.3 Billion is an awful lot for highway transportation contracts, even if you are the USPS.

* What’s with S.M. bloggers and Friday Rants anyway? Haven’t they figured out yet that any day is a good day for a rant!

If You Really Want Diversity, Hire People Who Embrace It

Flipping over to the eSide, we see that it recently ran an interesting article on “Getting Supplier Diversity Going — From the Middle Up” that presented a number of good low-cost suggestions for kicking a diversity program into gear. These suggestions included:

  • Volunteering to Speak at Supplier Diversity/Training Events
    and hoping that someone sees your initiative
  • Creating a Supplier Diversity Brochure to be Distributed Throughout your Company
    and those who like to read such company material will start to tune into the issue
  • Creating a Diversity Council
    that has quarterly meetings to discuss the issue and people will show up (especially if it means avoiding other work or free food)
  • Getting Senior Management to Speak at Your Supplier Diversity Training Events
    and if management conveys sincere support for the effort, employees serious about staying with the company for a while will start to listen
  • Inviting A Diverse Supplier to Showcase Its Products at Your Facility during lunch
    and those who are bored, hungry, or friends with the rep will show up and take note
  • Having a Government Training Event at Your Facility
    and … oops, sorry, this is only going to bring you good press … there usually isn’t as much respect for the public sector as you’d like to think in private organizations
  • Hosting a Supplier Diversity Luncheon
    with multiple suppliers, kicking the showcase up a notch and taking it to the next level
  • Creating an Annual Diversity Recognition Event for Supply Management Professionals
    and watching as our egos work to your advantage
  • Sponsoring a Diverse Supplier’s Attendance at a Local or National Training Event
    and having them rally for your cause (in the hopes they’ll be invited again)
  • Coordinating a quarterly raffle
    and … oops, this is borderline bribery and not in the best interest of the organization if an award is made to a supplier who does not provide the best value to the organization just so that the Supply Manager can get a free ticket or ten (as you should really only award to a diverse supplier if such supplier can bring the best value, or if there’s a tie and one supplier is diverse and one is not)

By now you probably think the doctor was being sarcastic when he said that the article presented a number of good low-cost suggestions for kicking a diversity program into gear. Even though he ripped on all of them, eight out of ten of the ideas are good. The problem is not the ideas. The problem is your people. In today’s economy, people are generally overworked, underpaid, and barraged with new initiatives all the time, most of which require time and effort they just don’t have. As a result, their first reaction to anything new is “uh-oh!”. On top of this, you have the problem that this is a sensitive issue that has to be addressed lightly and the potential problem that some people in our society still don’t want, or even like, diversity.

The reality is that if you don’t have people in your organization that are at least open to diversity, they’re not going to embrace any initiative you throw at them, no matter how many of the eight great ideas above you throw at them. (For the record, except for the government training event, that could backfire, and the raffle, that sounds like bribery, the doctor thinks the rest are great.) Even if they’re overworked, or lazy (which is another problem in today’s workplace), if organizational talent is open to diversity, a good diversity initiative will bring them out of their shell and such a program will generate, with effort, some amazing results. But if your organizational talent is not open to diversity, you can, as they say, try until the cows come home and not get any results, or, even worse, if your organization is full of backwoods types that don’t like diversity and change, generate hostile resentment to the initiative. So make sure any effort you undertake starts with HR. HR really has to get it right.

You need a Platform that Supports Sustainability

I think we can all agree that sustainability is important – very important. You might be in business to make money, but the only way you’re going to make money is if you stay in business. The only way you’re going to stay in business is if you’re sustainable, because, otherwise, you risk running out of resources, money, or, and I’m not kidding, customers. The earth is finite, so it stands to reason that there is only a finite amount of any resource. A company has a finite amount of money, and wasting it is the quickest path to going out of business. Today’s consumer is concerned about the environment – harming it will drive them away, and with no customers, you have no business.

So how do you achieve this magic of sustainability? Well, you can achieve it the same way you achieve everything else in business – hard work, perseverance, and ingenuity. But the real trick comes in sustaining sustainability – and the best way to do that is to have not only supporting processes and methodologies, but a supporting platform as well.

A supporting platform can help you keep track of your initiatives which can range from your office recycling program to your global waste reduction initiative. Recycling efforts within a single large office building can save hundreds of thousands of dollars. As noted in a now classic S&DC article on “Building the Green Supply Chain”, the Boulder Community Hospital reduce, reuse, and recycle program saved the hospital $600K a year. On a global scale, Walmart saved 2.4M in shipping just by reducing packaging requirements. And Interface Inc, in their effort to move to a zero environment footprint, have saved more than 260M in the first decade of their sustainability program.

More importantly, it can also help you get control of your global sustainability initiatives when it comes to environmental impact reduction, social responsibility, and prevention of animal cruelty. Unlike internal waste reduction initiatives, which often do not exceed the complexity of making sure the used toner cartridges were shipped back to the manufacturer, global sustainability initiatives require you to also insure your supply chain does not violate the initiatives you commit to. Just because you don’t have a sweatshop, pump out toxic emissions in excess of the Kyoto protocol, or skin cows alive does not mean that your suppliers do not.

In order to insure that you have a supply chain in compliance with your initiatives, you have to track relevant information from your suppliers and have them track the corresponding information from their suppliers. This is an insurmountable challenge unless they can provide you with the information you need directly into your systems, as the average large company has dozens, if not hundreds of essential tier 1 suppliers and thousands of less critical suppliers. This requires a web based platform capable of securely collecting, storing, indexing, aggregating, and unifying all of the relevant information from each supplier.

Furthermore, depending on where you want to do business, sustainability might be more than just an initiative – it might be a fact of life. If you want to do business in the EU, you need to comply with REACH and RoHS, and possibly half a dozen other directives. California has introduced its own green legislation, and parts of Asia, suffering from severe pollution as a result of the rapid build up of manufacturing capability over the last few decades to meet the demands of American and European multinationals focussed on low cost country sourcing, may not be far behind. You have to not only maintain all of the documentation necessary for compliance purposes, but have to be at least 99.999% certain you are in compliance before making a shipment into the region. If even the tiniest removable part of your electronics system, such as the removable power cord, is not in compliance, your entire shipment could be blocked, seized, or destroyed.

This dictates the need for a platform that tracks not only all information related to your sustainability programs, but all product related information from raw materials through final production. This is the only way to minimize your risk of non-compliance. That’s why you need a Supplier Information Management (SIM) solution, or an e-Sourcing/e-Procurement solution with enhanced Supplier & Sustainability Information Management. Fortunately, you have a lot of options. We’ve covered many on SI in the past and will cover more in the months to come.