Monthly Archives: March 2010

Was it Nearshoring? Or Bullwhip Effect?

Editor’s Note: Today’s post is from Dick Locke, Sourcing Innovation’s resident expert on International Sourcing and Procurement. (His previous guest posts are still archived.)

China’s exports in February were up 45% from last February. (LA Times)

My opinion: the rapid decline and unsustainable increase in Chinese exports were from the bullwhip effect of a long supply chain. A small change in final demand can cause huge swings in upstream supply.

This mainly applies to those using ships to transport from China. If you can use air, China isn’t much further (in hours) than Mexico.

Dick Locke, Global Procurement Group and Global Supply Training.

Seven Warning Signs Your ERP System Is Extinct

I enjoyed this white paper from PLEX Systems on “Seven Warning Signs Your ERP System Is Extinct” because there are so many ERP systems out there today that are literally technology dinosaurs and so many companies who are unaware, thanks in part to continuous efforts on the part of their providers (charging 22%+ maintenance) to keep them in the dark. It’s nice to know that someone besides myself and Vinnie is willing to speak a little truth on the issue now and then.

The white-paper doesn’t beat around the bush and gets straight to the seven warning signs it promised:

  1. Your ERP system can’t integrate mission critical business data
    “Silos” of data are not useful. You need integrated data to do meaningful analyses that can deliver meaningful results.
  2. Changes to the system are costly and time-consuming
    Are your new releases on a 24 month schedule? Do new features only appear years after you need them? Do custom changes start in the six figure range and take months to complete? In comparison, new SaaS platforms tend to do major releases on a 3-6 month schedule, develop new features as soon as they are identified as important, and use integration platforms that allow them to develop customizations in a matter of weeks that start in the five figure price range.
  3. Your disaster recovery plan involves tapes
    A technology that has all but disappeared because it is easily eaten by players, easily erased by nearby magnets, easily destroyed by a spilled drink, and easily lost. (When was the last time you saw a tape produced by the Music Industry?) A modern system that maintains an on-line remote backup can be recovered in minutes as compared to the hours, or days, it can take to reload data off of tapes — which could be days, or weeks, out of date.
  4. Maintenance fees are high
    Maintenance fees on current technology should be low, not 22%!
  5. Upgrades are Disruptive to the Business
    Outdated ERP systems often require OS, database, and hardware updates which take time to plan and even more time to execute and take your business ‘down’ for a period of time to do the conversion. (In contrast, modern SaaS systems can be upgraded instantaneously.)
  6. Trading partners can’t easily interact with the system
    There’s no ability for partners to get data from, or submit data to, the system — which is problematic considering how importance visibility is in today’s supply chain.
  7. Globalization is too difficult
    Many legacy systems require you to run a different version of the system to support China, Russia, India, or another country. A modern system supports multiple languages and allows you to run the same system in every company you operate in, and only the language used in the UI is different.

Share This on Linked In

The Tiger is Beginning to Roar … but the Eagle is beginning to Snore!

I was appalled to see this recent headline on the SSON site asking “2010: The Year For Outsourced Thinking?” (membership required) as well as the statement that organizations are increasing willing to outsource complex, higher value-added pieces of the “end-to-end” process.

Why? Because we’ve outsourced everything else. Raw material collection? Check. Processing? Check. Product Manufacturing? Check. Distribution? Check. Value-added services? Check. If we outsource thinking, and innovation, what’s left? Nothing of value! So while we should take advantage of reverse innovation at every opportunity, and partner with talent where we can find it, we should never, ever, outsource thinking. Because then all we have left is sales and marketing, which are totally useless if you don’t have a consumer base to market and sell to … which we won’t have if there are no jobs left — and there won’t be any jobs if we outsource the last few jobs we have! So unless you want to see an economy where the majority of us are unemployed while the remaining few are selling and marketing junk no one wants to each other, I’d make it a point to keep using our brain cells to their full potential. Otherwise, I predict that the 22nd century will see North America become the new third world.

The short story is that it doesn’t take long for a civilization to fall. The Egyptians, Greeks, Romans, Teoithuacans, Mayans, Incans, Aztecs, Vikings, Byzantine, and early Chinese Dynasties [Sui, Yuan, Qing] all fell in less than a century, and some in half a century or less. If we stop thinking, I can’t see us lasting very long at all.

Share This on Linked In

The Real Price of Cost Cutting

Last November, Basware released a research report on “Cost of Control: The Real Price of Cost Cutting” that expanded upon their “Cost of Control” research summary (that they released last June) with in-depth interviews to illuminate some of the key issues that will form supply management strategy in the years to come. The white paper illuminated some good points which I’d like to expand on in this post.

Technology is Key to Efficiency

The report noted that respondents are alive and alert to the potential of efficiencies delivered through the use of technology, although IT investment is tight in the current market and that investment funds are likely to be made available where the business case is able to deliver tangible, short-term savings. This is positive — in that business are starting to see the value technology can deliver, and negative — in that business won’t invest unless they are convinced they can see immediate payback. In other words, as long as the market is tight, they are going to postpone new technology purchases and continue to bleed year after year, hoping that they’ll still have blood left when the economy improves.

Unfortunately, this report, like many others, did not address how to deal with this problem. The answer lies not in the ROI analysis (which is there, but not always rapid enough to justify six or seven figures up front) but in the approach to technology acquisition and payment. Businesses need to understand that it’s a tough economy for vendors too and that you don’t need to pay for it all up front anymore. Not only can you start with a SaaS pay-as-you-go solution (which will generate instant savings as long as you select a solution that costs less per month than the minimum average monthly ROI you expect), but most businesses will give you a payment plan in this economy, even if you buy a perpetual license. Furthermore, you can also pay as you go on services and support, and many organizations will even give you a payment plan on up front installation and integration if a lot of work is needed. Vendors would rather be paid tomorrow for work done today than not be paid at all.

Procurement and Finance is a Tense Relationship

A number of recurring issues erode the relationship between the functions but encouragingly cause regret on both sides. Whether Procurement reports to Finance or to the Board, Procurement has to work hand-in-hand with Finance, respect the cash-flow realities of the business, and make purchases that have the greatest positive impact to the bottom line. You’re not saving 2% by agreeing to early payment if you have to borrow the money at 24% annual interest because your customers are all paying late. Cost of capital, currency conversions, cost of commodity risk management (through hedge funds, futures, etc.) all have to be taken into your total cost of ownership equation — not just unit price, shipping price, storage price, and tariffs.

Again, the report presented no clear advice on how to resolve the conflict. While there is no answer that will be right for everyone, you need to start with the formation of cross-functional teams on every sourcing project which includes a Finance representative who can help you understand the financial impacts and ramifications of a proposed sourcing arrangement. Getting Finance’s input before the contract is signed will go a long way towards easing the tension and maintaining the relationship.

Minor Risks are Important Too

Businesses are looking for the ‘Tsunami’ events that take place in the supply chain, but failing to keep track of the ‘soil erosion’ that is more likely to be experienced over time with regards to quality and servicing issues surrounding the supplier relationship. Furthermore, respondents are happy to articulate potential failures among their key suppliers and the discrete disappearance of supplier businesses, but do not appear to pay enough attention to the broader issues created by compound supplier instability.

The fact of that matter is that if a number of minor risks materialize simultaneously, they can be just as devastating as a major risk materializing. Let’s say you make a product that requires five key components. What if all five suppliers experience problems at the same time and your orders are delayed at least 90 days from each supplier, in your peak season. One component, you could probably go into recovery mode and find a replacement quickly. Two components, super-charged fire-fighting mode. Five components? Forget it! All risks and suppliers have to be tracked and attention paid if leading indicators indicate trouble.

In other words, regardless of what fire you’re fighting today, there’s a big picture and you better not lose track of it. But it’s important to have a plan, and that’s where the report stops short.

Finally, don’t forget that, Across-the-Board Year-Over-Year Savings Targets are Stupid. After all, I even gave you Yet Another Reason Across-the-Board Year-Over-Year Savings Targets are Stupid.

Share This on Linked In

The Tiger is Only Beginning to Roar

Earlier this year I told that that this is the year of the tiger … and China is going to roar as it is on track to overtake Japan as the 2nd largest global producer of GDP. But this is just the beginning. China is expected to become the global leader in scientific research in a mere 10 years (Financial Times [FT]) and the global leader in GDP within 25 years (The Economics Journal).

According to the FT article, Thomson Reuters, which indexes scientific papers from over 10.5K journals, analyzed the performance of the BRIC over the past 30 years and found that China outperformed every other nation with a 64-fold increase in peer-reviewed scientific papers, with a particular strength in chemistry and materials science. And although quality varies, China has also become more collaborative, with almost 10% of papers originating in China having at least one US-based co-author.

And the research pace isn’t expected to slow down. When you combine the government’s enormous investment in research (with funding increases consistently far above the inflation rate), an organized flow of knowledge from basic science to commercial applications, and the efficient, but flexible, way in which China taps the expertise of its extensive scientific diaspora in North America and Europe, drawing mid-career scientists back home with deals that allow them to spend part of the year working in the West, the productivity should only increase. And this, in turn, is going to continue to drive their economy upward and onward.

Now if only we’d take a lesson from China and investment the same amount of money into research and infrastructure. Maybe we could hold on just a little bit longer …

Share This on Linked In