According to a recent article in Strategy+Business on a return, not to normal, but to reality, Mark Anderson believes that three critical measures need to be put in place before serious recovery can begin:
- Better Protection of Intellectual Property
Considering that most protection seems to revolve around patents that are abused by software patent pirates, not much progress has been made here.
- Reforms to Prevent Jackals and Vampires from Dominating the Market
Specifically, reforms to prevent short sellers (jackals) and sophisticated investors who take profits without contributing either market balance or information (vampires) from dominating the markets. No progress has been made on this front either.
- Rebuilding of the Manufacturing Base of the Industrialized World
Considering the outsourcing craze is still in full gear, especially now that even China is outsourcing to Africa, it could be a while before the manufacturing base in the developing world can even dream of being close to capacity again. Despite the fact that they haven’t learned the lessons of their peers who have found that they needed their expertise in-house and that the offshoring machine didn’t work very well.
Plus, thanks to the glut of hot money in the global liquidity pool, when the damaged parts of the split economies begin to come back, this liquidity will likely create a whiplash effect, throwing countries into hyperinflation before they can respond effectively. It seems inevitable.
And with the unemployment rate predicted to stay at 10% overall, it’s looking like a very long road to recovery.
So make sure to get your supply chain in order … you’re going to need the competitive advantage!