Not only do we have Headlines from the Land of D’oh, but we also have Questions from the Land of the Obvious. This one, in my K@W archives from earlier this year, that asks Is China’s Rise Sustainable is an obvious example.

Of Course it’s sustainable. Let’s start with some simple facts:

• over 1.3 Billion People
  that’s almost 1/5th of the planet’s population
• over 3 Trillion in Currency Reserves
  compare that to the US debt of almost 15 Trillion
• annual GDP of 6 Trillion
  it’s the 2nd largest GDP and could surpass the US GDP in the 2020s at the current growth rate, and even if it doesn’t, it will come damn close
• over 160 Cities with 1M+ people
  and this number is expected to exceed 300 before the decade is over as China urbanizes (and surpasses 50% urbanization); North America has around 20 such cities.
• China is moving from low value assembly to high value add
  Foxconn produces some of the most advanced electronics in the world
• Significant R&D funding
  By 2010, Innofund alone had invested almost 9 Billion RMB
• Significant Infrastructure Advancements
  The 12th Five Year Guideline has significant infrastructure investments. The high-speed railway will exceed 45,000 km (which could cross Canada 6 times!), the highway network will exceed 83,000 km, new airports will be built (including one in Beijing), and 36 Million affordable apartments for low income people will be built (which could house the entire population of Canada^*)
• while we spend, they save
  They have money to spend when the time is right to buy.
• they are Renewable Energy leaders
  They know their rate of fossil fuel consumption is not sustainable and aim to double their rate of renewable energy electricity over the next five years while building 400 nuclear power plants by 2035.
• the party is Patient
  They realize that long term change takes a long time and that focus on quarterly objectives is STUPID! They know a long term plan is not 3 years, it is 10 years or more!
• their civilization is truly ancient
  Their written history extends back over 2,600 years, beginning in the Shang Dynasty, and early texts recount oral histories of the Xia Dynasty that go back over 3,000 years. And, with the wisdom of age, they remember the lessons learned over the years. They were the superpower of the world for most of the last two centuries. If they hadn’t closed their borders early last century, and missed out on the Industrial Revolution, they would never have fallen. But they have learned from their error, and are investing heavily in the information revolution and the knowledge economy. Unless something drastic happens, it’s only a matter of time before they not only catch up, but regain their #1 place.

In other words, this was a headline from the land of the obvious. It’s not a matter of if the rise is sustainable, it’s a matter of how fast China is going to rise.

^* which is fortunate, because, at the rate they are buying up property in our coastal cities, us Canadians may have to move there