It’s a tough question, and one that you need to answer sooner rather than later. If you read this recent article on how global shipping lines grapple with plunging rates, overcapacity, and faltering recover, you realize that the global shipping industry is likely in for a very shaky ride over the next few years given the unpredictable demand, the strong likelihood of consolidation, and the big bets some major shippers are making that could intensify the current overcapacity problem.
The following tidbits of information in particular are worrisome:
- GDP growth forecasts for Canada in 2012 have recently been revised downwards by various analysts to just above 2%
Canada, which has done quite well in weathering the global economic storm (through better bank regulation, smarter risk aversion, and a focus on natural resources) is barely going to grow. Imagine how the Eurozone and the USA are going to fare in 2012.
- China growth, while in the high single digits, is slowing
When GDP growth in the country that houses one-sixth of the world’s population and that is still on track replace the USA as the dominant economic superpower in under fifteen (15) years is slowing, what hope does the rest of the world have for a quick recovery?
- The dollar still drives decisions. Green is of secondary importance.
With little incentive to look at new technologies, there is little incentive to look at sustainable solutions that could be more cost effective in the long run. (Such as more efficient engines, on-board solar and wind power, etc.)
- Maersk, which ordered 10 Triple E vessels capable of carrying 18,000 TEUs in February 2011, ordered 10 more mega-vessels that will cost US $190 Million in late June.
All of these vessels are bigger than the 15,000 TEU Emma Maersk, which will remain the largest container ship on the high seas until 2013 when the new ships are deployed. But where is the volume going to come from to fill them?
- Maersk is betting that Asia-Europe trade will increase by 5% to 8% annually over the next four years.
China’s GDP growth is around 9% and falling. And not all of that is due to trade. The Eurozone is dealing with one financial crisis after another, and no other country in Asia is going to keep up with China.
- Box freight rates on the Far East-Europe spot market have plunged below zero after stripping out bunker surcharges. Worse, the rates will continue dropping as the big carriers engage in a “destructive” rate war.
Price wars always have casualties.
- Net rates are now lower than during the darkest period of the 2009 container slump.
Rates have no where to go but up (although they may not start rising until we have a few price war casualties).
- Alphaliner estimates that idle container ship tonnage will climb above 500,000 TEUs by the end of December.
To put this in perspective, that’s 19.25 Million m3 of idle cargo space which could hold approximately 33.258 Trillion iPad 2’s in the box, if Foxconn could produce them all. (This is 4.75 iPad 2’s for everyone on the planet.)
Put all this together, and you see that:
- (Some) carriers are going to go out of business.
It could be yours!
- Shipping lanes are going to close.
Carriers will have to drop low volume lanes and consildate volumes to keep costs down and stay in business.
- Rates are going to go up.
As those carriers that don’t go out of business will have no choice to raise rates if they stay in business, even with lane consolidation and elimination of discretionary and low-volume ports.
If you don’t have a ocean freight backup strategy, it’s time to get one, and if a delay could cause you a significant loss or increase in rates as you scramble to divert cargo to a higher cost carrier, it might be time to hedge your bets. the doctor may not be an expert in ocean freight, but this crystal ball is not very hard to read.