Monthly Archives: December 2013

Why are Your Inland Shipping Costs in China so High?

As this recent article over on South China Morning Post on Last Mile Transport’s Heavy Load for Truckers implies, it’s probably poor planning on your part.

Specifically, it’s expecting that China carriers can move your product from A to B as fast as North American carriers can get your product from C to D, where the distance from A to B equals the distance from C to D. Although China’s transportation infrastructure is much better than India’s transportation infrastructure, it’s still not on par with the US which gets a 4.14 ranking (out of 5) compared to China’s 3.61 (as per the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index).

Not only is transportation infrastructure insufficient in some parts of mainland China, or overcrowded in many of the big urban areas, but there is also the restriction that trucks can’t be on the highways after midnight. (In the US, the worst you have to deal with is speed limits that drop 10 mph at night. As long as the driver hasn’t reached his daily driving limit, that truck can drive all night long.)

As a result, when you insist on unrealistic schedules, with penalties for late delivery, you end up costing the logistics company needed revenue that it needs to cover the highway and first-tier road fees, as 95% of the country’s highways and 61% of it’s first-tier roads are toll roads (and the company has to use these roads to ensure reasonable delivery times as the free roads are typically dirt roads not suitable for transport trucks). As a result, knowing that it’s going to be late on a significant number of deliveries unless it illegally drives on the highway at night (which will result in harsh fines), and, as a result, get hit with a large number of penalties, the logistics company has to increase its base rates to absorb the expected losses to stay in business.

Thus, if you acknowledged the reality of the transportation situation that Chinese logistics companies have to deal with, accepted slightly longer delivery times, and planned accordingly, you could reduce your mainland China logistics costs — especially if, instead of using one of the almost 10,000 small or mid-sized companies that can’t take advantage of economies of scale and end up absorbing a lot of empty miles, you use one of the few large companies that have enough trucks, and warehouses, to minimize empty miles and use their scale to their advantage. (Plus, shifting more to the bigger carriers will allow them to become financially stable enough to acquire some of the smaller carriers where their footprint is weak, and this should further decrease costs in the future. Furthermore, when the market sees consolidation working, some of the mid-sized carriers will likely merge to offer more cost-effective options. China is big enough that it can support dozens of major carriers, not just a handful like some of the smaller global marketplaces. As a result, even with significant consolidation, there should still be ample competition to keep prices low.)

Where is Canada’s Road to Riches? The Rails, My Friend, the Rails.

As SI posted three months ago, The Road to Riches [is] The Rails, My Friend, The Rails. Not only is rail transport more fuel efficient and predictable than road transport, but it’s increasing adoption in the east has shown just how beneficial it can be.

The reality is that It’s Time for California to Update It’s Passenger Rail Solution and it’s time for Canada to update its passenger rail solution. Not only are parts of the country utterly without passenger rail service (as the only Via Rail stops in NS are in Amherst, Halifax, and Springhill Junction, for example), but the parts of the country that desperately need high-speed rail the most, like the GTA (Greater Toronto Area) are totally bereft.

As per this very well written article over on The Huffington Post, Canada’s Tech Future May Ride on the Rails. For example, right now it takes almost an hour to get from Pearson Airpot to Union Station downtown, a problem that is expected to be completed in 2015 with the Union-Pearson Express rail-link that will cut the travel time down to 25 minutes.

But this is not the biggest problem. Right now, one of Canada’s biggest tech-hubs is Kitchener-Waterloo, home of RIM, the University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier, and a slew of technology companies, including many start-ups prime for US VC investment. Investment that is likely to flow only if it’s easy for VCs (who will fly out the afternoon before) to get there, meet with prospects, and get on the flight back home the day of the meeting (on the last flight out of Toronto between 6 and 7 pm, depending on their airline of choice). But with their only option being either the train, which only leaves Kitchener at 5:49 am (arriving at Union at 7:53 am) or 7:07 pm (arriving at Union at 9:08 pm), or the 401, which is typically a two to a two and a half hour drive at standard congestion levels, getting in and out of KW in one day is impossible (even though the straight line distance is under 100 km) if you also want to conduct business in Toronto during your trip.

As a result, as the article points out, a number of valley VCs make less trips than they might otherwise and don’t stop by to visit potential opportunities that haven’t commandeered their full attention (which, due to circumstances, typically requires multiple expensive trips to the valley). Opportunities, that, with funding, could bring more investment north of the border. Opportunities that could be used to fill the five million square feet of building space that could be built on all of the vacant land within a five minute walk of the multi-modal station in downtown Kitchener if there was demand.

If Kitchener-Waterloo achieved its technology potential, and another five million square feet of building space were filled with technology companies, according to Rod Regier, the executive director of economic development for the City of Kitchener, you would have another 15,000 technology workers in the area. At 2011 figures, these workers would generate 1.1 Billion in personal income and generate almost 400 million in income tax.

And guess how much a high-speed train with regular all day service between Union Station and downtown Kitchener would cost? An estimate in 2009 pegged the cost at 400 Million. It would be more expensive now, but probably not more than 20% more expensive. At this cost, the project would very quickly pay for itself since more tech companies would move in and once the region reached its potential, it would be generating tax revenues every 15 to 18 months that equaled the initial project cost. But for now, this logical project, just like high-speed rail along the North East Corridor of the US (and high-speed rail across Northern and Southern California in our lifetime) remains a pipe-dream. Too bad. It seems that the rails really do bring riches to those who choose to ride them.

Why Is China Going to Beat the US in GDP Very, Very Soon?

If market trends continue, China is very likely to overtake the US in GDP by 2025. Why is this?

Is it because China has 1,351 Million people compared to the US population of 314 Million?

Is it because the world is still aggressively outsourcing to China?

Is it because China controls 90%+ of the global supply for some of the increasingly important rare earth metals?

Is it because China is effectively balancing socialism with capitalism?

Is it because they have manufacturing plants the size of small cities?

Is it because they run on five-year plans designed to improve the overall state of the country every five years?

Is it because they recognize not only the importance of public health-care but the importance of getting it right?

Is it because they realize that you can effectively defend your country on 6%- of your budget (and 2.2% of their GDP) compared to the US that needs to spend 11%+ of their budget (14% of revenue and 4.4% of their GDP)?

Is it because the populace is actively protesting GM (Genetically Modified) food?

Is it because they are pushing ahead on R&D and exploration (having landed the first spacecraft on the moon on December 13 for the first time since Russia landed Luna-24 in 1976)?

It’s all of these reasons, and more. While the US media is too focussed on the scandal of the day, the Chinese media, while censored, is more focussed on the issues. While the political parties in the US squabble over minutia and blame each other for the government shutdown that just occurred, and the one that is likely to happen in January, the one party system in China is discussing amongst itself how best to move forward (and keep the necessary control). While the US is on the verge of another energy crisis, China is building new power plants, including those that run on renewable energy sources, as fast as it can.

Now, SI will be the first to admit that China is not without its problems. It still has way too many coal-producing power plants, too much smog in its big cities, limited freedoms (especially where the press is concerned), urbanization issues (as it is still building cities it doesn’t yet need to keep people employed), logistics challenges, and so on. But compared to the US, where the republicans and democrats spend all their time blaming each other and fighting instead of working together to advance the country, where the government apparently spends too much time and money spying on its own citizens and pursuing controversial drone technology instead of fostering better inter-agency cooperation, public support for homeland defence initiatives, and scientific research endeavours, and where education spending often gets the shaft (with the Department of Education budget typically clocking in at under 2% of GDP), China is making more progress, and doing so faster, than the US.

If the US wants to retain its top spot on the economic powerhouse rankings, once the elections are over, the elected representatives have to work together to do what’s best for the country, otherwise, despite all of the limitations of socialism that one can identify from a free market perspective, China is going to win, and win big, and do so at the expense of the US.
While it may be an inevitability that China overtakes the US in GDP at some point in the future, it doesn’t have to be the near future, but unless the US makes a concerted effort to shape up from a global perspective, and forces its politicians to grow (the fuck) up, we may all need to start registering in Mandarin classes very soon.

FREIGHTOS: Helping to Bring Freight Into the Modern Era

Freight is often the bane of the Procurement professional, especially when such professional needs a quote in a hurry. It’s not uncommon even in this day and age for a Procurement professional to call up a freight carrier for a spot quote and have to wait two or three days. It’s absurd. Quotes, or at least quotes on standard table rates, should take two or three seconds. The only time you should wait a couple of days for a quote is during a master contract negotiation for hundreds of lanes, as you will want to give the carrier some time to determine their absolute best rate in this situation.

This is the primary reason BuyTruckload.com was founded. The founders, veterans of the logistics management software industry, got fed up with both having to wait for bids on the spot market and being unable to shop the business to enough carriers to get the best rate.  But this isn’t an article about BuyTruckload.com, even though BuyTruckload.com does a wonderful job in North America. Why?  Because BuyTruckload.com it doesn’t solve the global shipping problem, doesn’t address other modes of transit, and it doesn’t account for the fact that you might have contracts in place (that the buyer might not even be aware of).

In order to address this problem and speed up the freight quote time, on or off contract, in the global market place, Zvi Schreiber and his team built FreightOS (pronounced Freight O.S., or even freigh-toss, as it is a freight operating system and not a brand of breakfast cereals), which is an technology platform that enables an on-line network of global freight carriers to provide instant spot-rate and on-contract quotes when a (potential) customer needs them.

When a carrier, or freight-forwarder / 3PL,  signs up for the FreightOS network and uploads their standard rate tables for ocean, air, and land-based shipping for all of the routes they service, customers can access the carrier’s portal on the FrieghtOS network and get almost instantaneous quotes (which, depending on the number of routing options and shipment goal — be it lowest cost, fastest delivery, etc. — could take a few seconds) for the route(s) of their choice. All the buyer has to specify is the origin, the destination, some basic load characteristics (what is being shipped [boxes, pallets, etc.], dimensions, unit weight, and quantity), the desired pick-up date, the allowable modes (land, ocean, air, or any combination), whether or not the load is hazardous, if insurance is required (and the load value if it is), the applicable HS code(s), and if a customs brokerage is being used and click a get quote button. Within 10 seconds, the buyer will get the quickest delivery quote, the cheapest quote, and, if applicable, some suggestions for nearby delivery locations that are quicker or cheaper (especially in the case of inter-continental shipments where there are multiple options that require a multi-modal delivery network that consists of air or ocean and truck or rail). Each quote returned will include the total cost, the time-in-transit, the modes of transportation required, and whether or not the carrier will work with a customs brokerage or transport hazardous material. Clicking on a quote will break it down into its constituent cost components, which may include, but are not limited to, basic freight cost, (airline) screening fees, (airline) security fees, fuel surcharges, documentation fees, (airline) handling fees, export declarations, advance manifest fees, etc. If the buying organization has a contract with the carrier, even if it only covers some lanes, they can upload the contract and all of their buyers can get on-contract quotes instantaneously and compare them to off-contract quotes. This can help the buyer discover whether a different routing can save them some money.

Also, after the buyer has requested quotes from their (preferred) carriers of choice on the FreightOS network, they can download their entire quote history to an excel spreadsheet to not only do a lowest-cost cross-carrier comparison by lane, but determine where the real (hidden) costs are. For example, it’s possible that (one of) the biggest cost(s) (in air freight in particular) is the fuel surcharge, and if the buyer can identify this and negotiate a better fuel surcharge rate with a carrier of choice, they could potentially lower their shipment costs going forward. Also, in the case of exports and imports, a buyer can see if any of the security or documentation fees imposed by one carrier are (unreasonably) higher than the market average.

Right now, the FreightOS platform has approximately 20 carriers on-board, but considering the huge cost savings this represents to a carrier that spends a considerable number of man-hours every day quoting on business for which it knows it will only see a 20% to 30% success rate at best, it shouldn’t be long before more carriers sign up. With this type of platform, no man-hours are needed to provide market-rate quotes and the carrier will know that when they do get a call based on a quote provided by the platform, the buyer has product she needs to ship, has decided that the carrier may be able to provide the service she needs in an acceptable price range, and has narrowed her pool of carrier choices down to select few. The founders of FreightOS believe that they can increase the success rate of their carriers by 10% with this tool, but SI believes that this tool could increase a carrier’s success rate by as much as 50% as most buyer’s will only call, at most, the 3 lowest quoting carriers and select the first carrier that can meet their delivery requirements at an acceptable price.

If you have global freight and need a better quoting solution than calling up a carrier who will take, on average, a day or three to get back to you, SI recommends checking out FreightOS. It’s definitely a platform to watch.