Trump is imposing tariffs. China is retaliating. And this is just the beginning. As a result, supply risk and the need for spend forecasting is finally becoming real. But is it becoming real enough for organizations to take action? It’s hard to say. But one thing we do know is that the only way organizations can progress forward is to better understand not only the risks, but the costs.
What are the risks? Many. What are the costs? Significant. And how can you know of either? In the first case, you need to monitor the news, the sentiment of the responses in regards to the news, crowd-source some predictions, and run some advanced analytics on all this data to determine the probability of something happening — and sticking.
And in the second case, you build should cost models with current data, and projected data, to determine the impact of a tariff on the total cost of ownership of the product. This means that a simple RFX or Auction platform is just not enough – an organization needs a platform with deep should cost modelling and the ability to create what-if should-cost models based on projected and anticipated changes.
But even that’s not enough. If the projected increases are significant, then the organization will, at the very least, need to reallocate global supply chains to insure that products, which are currently sourced from multiple suppliers and/or locations, are being exported from and imported into the most cost effective locales the organization has access to. And if this is not enough to keep costs under control, then the organization may need to even source from additional suppliers (in different locations) or re-source the entire category (to the extent possible).
But it’s hard to figure all of this out without an optimization backed sourcing platform. Hopefully this is the kicker that is needed to get these powerful analytical platforms into the hands of more Sourcing and Procurement organizations, as these platforms are desperately needed and reduce spend on analyzed categories by an average of 10%+ year-over-year, making their ROI immense.
But, alas, only time will tell. But if bankruptcy could be on the line (when a tariff wipes out the entire profit margin), maybe this time these platforms will finally take hold.