Category Archives: India

Maybe Some Bribes Should Be Legalized

Especially since it’s already legal to bribe corporations, and public sector entities. But let’s back up for a minute.

A recent article in The Economist that asks who to punish notes that India’s chief economic adviser wants to (partially) legalize some kinds of bribe-giving. And while your first thought might be bribes are bad, m’kay, it’s actually not a bad idea.

First of all, as Kaushik Basu (who is the chief economic advisor to India’s finance ministry) points out, it’s hard to combat bribery and corruption when the law treats both bribe-giving and bribe-taking as crimes. If someone needs a basic service to be performed on their behalf, and they believe they can only get it by giving a bribe, they will pay the bribe. And they won’t report it because then they can be prosecuted.

Secondly, the bribes he is proposing to legalize are “harassment bribes”, made by a person to get things done to which he is legally entitled. Like filing a police report or getting his tax return processed. Furthermore, Mr. Basu is also proposing that it would still be illegal for the individual demanding the bribe to perform the service to take the bribe. The bribe-giver would be able to file a complaint, and if proven, would be entitled to a refund while the corrupt official would be punished. Moreover, bribes made to bend rules in one’s favour would continue to be illegal for both parties.

This isn’t a bad proposal. First of all, it will make a corrupt official think twice before asking for a bribe knowing that it is much more likely he’ll be reported since it will no longer be a crime for the bribe-giver to give a bribe to facilitate a service to which he is entitled.

Secondly, most “civilized” countries have already legalized such bribes when made to a corporation or a public body. We just call them service payments. Don’t want your package to take four days to go from point A to point B when you know it only takes one, pay an expediting fee. Want more leg room, and actual food, on your flight? Pay an upgrade fee and sit in first class. Don’t want to wait 6 weeks for your passport renewal? Pay the expedite fee and get it in 3 weeks. In each case, you’re getting the exact same service. The only difference is time. Pay less, and you are put in the bottom of the queue. Pay more, and you are moved to the top of the queue. And instead of paying a person directly, you’re paying an organization, which then pays it’s shareholders and executives more money. And even though you don’t pay an individual directly, the individual who sells you the upgrade still benefits. They get to keep their jobs, which they would lose the minute revenue and/or profit drops below a certain threshhold.

Finally, in some countries, low level public servants, just like waitstaff in “civilized countries”, are not paid a living wage and need bribes to support their families. Making facilitation payments legal makes sense in those countries where foreigners have no choice but to pay bribes if they want to do business. One way or another, service has to be paid for. And if someone is truly corrupt, you want to make it possible for those impacted to complain without repercussion (unless they are seeking to break the law themselves). Mr. Basu’s proposal may not be perfect, but it certainly is clever.

Apprenticeship is the Answer

Back in March when I asked if we can fix supply chain education because academic programs, third-party programs, private programs, and vendor programs are, for the most part, not meeting our needs, I pointed out that the answer was to go back in time to when apprenticeshipos were common. When students studied on the job under the guidance of a master who prepared them for the job they had to do, not to advance an understanding of purely intellectual pursuits devoid of a real world application.

While I didn’t get much of a public reaction, I did get some very positive feedback from some old-school folks who have tried everything and realized that work-alongside training is the best answer. But a few old coots, as brilliant as they may be, do not deliver enough critical mass to get the idea out there. However, it seems that India is proving my point. As per this recent article over on Global Services that asks if everything we know about offshoring innovation is wrong, not only does an appropriately designed test prove to be a better indication of ability than a University degree, but intensive on-the-job training under a skilled expert tends to produce a better worker in months than is typically produced by years of higher education.

In other words, apprenticeships are the answer.

Is Your Supply Management Organization About to Move to Asia?

As per this recent article over on the McKinsey Quarterly on Translating Innovation into US Growth: An Advanced-Industries Perspective, the US is posed for a future in which the elements of economic leadership are moving abroad. The US might still be the global leader in R&D spending overall, but in order to maintain its competitive edge, it has to be able to devise innovations the world wants and needs and translate those into economic leadership.

Economic leadership requires more than a capital market system that encourages (and rewards) risk taking and entrepreneurship, more than simply attracting top students and teachers globally, and more than bulk spending. As per the article, it also requires cutting-edge technology, demand, talent, and entrepreneurial spirit. And, right now, the US is falling behind on each of these.

Cutting-Edge Technology
In leading industrial technologies — such as advanced batteries, high-speed rail, hybrid automobiles, solar modules, offshore wind turbines, and machine tools — the United States finds itself competing against, or even catching up, with foreign companies and engineers. Furthermore, as the article notes, the US is now relying on Japan, Russian, and Western Europe to launch its satellites — an industry it used to pretty much own globally. If the US can’t even compete in green energy, it’s in for trouble.

Demand
More than 50% of the global middle class now lives outside North America and the demand for many next-generation products is now coming from Asia, Latin Ameria, and the Middle East. These customers are creating new markets and dictating preferences. US products for the US market are no longer profitable on their own in many industries.

Talent
Scientific and engineering talent is now building up outside the US while one-third of US manufacturing companies are suffering from skills shortages. Cutting edge research is moving to India and China as well as accelerating in Japan and Germany.

Entrepreneurial Spirit
Once a mainstay of the private sector, risk aversion to new vetures is increasing across the board in the US. At the same time, the “new” India is becoming much more entrepreneurial and risk taking. It’s not a good combination.

Then, when you also consider:

Cost
Many emerging countries have labour and overall operating costs that are still only a third of labour and operational costs in North America or Europe.

Success
A number of global multinationals, including IBM, have proved that you can move global Financial, Services, and Supply Management organizations to China and India and still be a world-class organization.

it becomes impossible not to ask if your supply management organization is about to move to Asia.

Do You Know What Disaster Will Strike You Next?

Of course you don’t, but you can calculate the risks of one disaster vs. another and one site vs. another with some simple research into natural disasters.

Earthquakes
Earthquakes are more likely near the edges of tectonic plates than they are in the interior, especially if the plates are moving together and pushing on each other (and there is a history of earthquakes and activity). You can quickly identify areas at high risk by looking at a tectonic map, such as the one over on ThinkQuest. One quickly sees that high risk areas are the west coast of North and South America, South East Asia, Japan, and the island domains north of Australia, as per the Global Seismic Hazard Map over on Countdown.org.

Volcanos
You can get a list of volcano activity reports from the Smithsonian Institute which maintains a USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. Most are usually in the Ring of Fire, which encompasses the high-risk earthquake zone around the Pacific. GeoCodeZip.com Google maps them for easy viewing.

Tsunamis
Coastal areas near sesimic hazard (earthquake) zones in the oceans are at the greatest risk of Tsunamis, which tend to build up in power and force as they approach shallow water and land. This says that some of the riskiest araes are on the Ring of Fire in western North and South America, Japan, and south-east Eurasia in the island domains North of Australia. More information on Tsunami Risk Zones can be found over on the International Tsunami Information Center.

Hurricanes
The greatest risk centers for hurricanes are coastal areas near the equator where hurricanes are normally a problem. The east coast of the US is particularly susceptible to hurricanes. The Global Weather Oscillations site specializes in in hurricane risk probability zone forecasts for the US and the risk zones for the coming year can be found on the Global Weather Cycles web site. The National Weather Service tracks the 10 global hot zones over on the National Hurricane Center site and a review of historical data will tell you how risky a certain area is.

Tornados
Tornados can occur anywhere in the world (including Antarctica, although this is the one continent where a tornado has not been documented) when the atmospheric conditions are exactly right. However, the most at risk zones are the middle latitudes between about 30 degrees and 50 degrees North or South where cold polar air meets warmer subtropical air and generats convective precipitation along the collission boundaries. As a result, taking weather patterns into account, the most at risk areas are the United States, western Europe, South Africa, the eastern and western coasts of Australia, New Zealand, the eastern and western borders of China, the estern coast of Argentina, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Good information on tornado climatology as well as a great map of global risk zones is found over on the National Climatic Data Center site.

Ice Storms
Blizzards can be bad, but generally don’t do much in the way of lasting damage. Ice storms, on the other hand, can do severe damage to infrastructure on a wide scale by downing power lines, and grids, damaging structures from the sheer weight of the ice, and even taking down trees. The most at risk areas tend to be Canada, the US, the UK, and most of Northern Europe and Russia.

Floods
Floods are not limited to the coastal variety, and can happen anytime the water level rises too quickly. Thus, in addition to worrying about flooding in coastal areas as a result of a tropical storm, hurricane, tsunami, or storm surge (tropical cyclone), flooding inland can occur from intense thunderstorms, sustained rainfall, or rapid snow melt. Thus, all of the coastal areas identified in your hurricane and tsunami risk lists are at risk at flooding plus any area with a history of flash floods, sustained rainfall (like they get in India during Monsoon season), or rapid snow melt (in Northern Canada) are at risk of floods.

Wild Fires
Wild Fires can occur on any continent at any time whenever the conditions are right and are likely to follow heat waves, droughts, and cyclical climate changes (such as El Nino) and high-pressure ridges. They are most common in climates that are sufficiently moist to allow regular vegegation growth but where extended dry, hot periods are also present. This keep parts of Africa, South America, South Eastern Eurasia, and Eastern Eurpe at high risk, but parts of the Southern US, Mexico, India, and Australia also enter the high risk zone on a regular basis.

In other words, there’s no excuse for not knowing which suppliers are at risk of which natural disasters and how great that risk is. (Some historical research will give you frequency of disasters in the area and a local climate institute likely has probabilities of occurence for the event, such as once every twenty years.) So while it may be hard to say how risky your supply chain is from a holistic perspective (as some financial or political risks may not be identifiable until the last minute), it should not be hard to say how risky it is from a natural disaster perspective.

Is The New India Greedy?

Some of the greediest business people that the doctor knows, especially in sales / marketing / business development roles, are Indian, but I’ve never looked upon India as “greedy” compared to, say, us — especially since these individuals often have a generous side where friends and family are concerned. But a recent article over on BBC News on the good, bad and ugly of Indian life seems to suggest that, in the New India, greed is good.

I know India faces greed from the west (led by the good ol’ U.S. of A.), the east (in China where greed allows you to be creative in business and put melamine in the milk, lead in the paint, and diethylene glycol [antifreeze] in the toothpaste and be seen as a successful business person who should be admired), and the north (led by the U.K. and a few of its money-grubbing European neighbours), but I had hoped it would hang on to its Gandhian heritage with dear life and balance the need for greed with the desire to make the (business) world a better place.

The article notes that when the head of the government’s main anti-fraud body, Pratyush Sinha, retired last year, he estimated that one in three Indians is corrupt. I know bribery is rampant, but that’s just the way business was done for a long time. People were underpaid, so if you wanted something, you paid a bribe. It might not be “ethical” in our world view, but at least when you paid the bribe, something got done. (And most of the time, the bribe was just to facilitate a legal service.) Here, you pay a service fee and wait to see whether or not a government worker will get around to your paperwork. He also said that “When we were growing up, if somebody was corrupt, they were generally looked down upon. There was at least some social stigma attached to it. That’s gone now. There’s greater social acceptance.”

According to the author, Pratyush was right. Recently cabinet ministers, wealthy businessmen, members of the armed forces, and politically well-connected organisers of the Commonwealth Games have come under the microscope. According to the author, one day his morning paper ran five different major corruption stories on its first eight pages. And now, even Ratan Tata, is speaking of the dangers of a “banana republic”. It doesn’t sound very positive. We certainly can’t wait for a commission of inquiry lasting 20 years. What do you think? Is it a short term blip or a long term problem? And if the latter, what is this going to do to your supply chain? India is already one of the most expensive countries in the world where logistics is concerned due to its bad roads and lack of airports. The last thing you want is greed in this industry.