Top 12 Challenges Facing India in the Decades Ahead – 07 – Education and Opportunity

If you remember our last post on poverty, you will note that we said that when India is compared to the 16 countries outside of sub-saharan Africa that are poorer than it, it doesn’t do well in any social indicator, with social indicators for Education being one of those indicators. In particular, it’s literacy rate among Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Haiti, Krygyzstan, Laos, Moldova, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua, New Guinea, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Yemen ranks 9th for Males and 11th for Females (at 82.1% and 65.5%)! Not good. In comparison, the literacy rates in China (at 97.5% and 92.7%), Brazil (at 90.1% and 90.7%), and Russia (at 99.7% and 99.5%) are much higher in comparison, as are the literacy rates of most of its Asian neighbours.

But it’s educational challenges are not just limited to its literacy rate. The challenges also stem to the perception of the importance of education, especially at an early age, as a whole. In their newly published book, An Uncertain Glory, Dreze and Sen do a great job of outlining some of the significant challenges facing India in terms of education and literacy, challenges which start with the first five year plan created by the newly independent India back in 1951.

The first five year plan in 1951, even though sympathetic to the need for University education which it strongly supported, argued against regular schooling at the elementary level, favouring instead a so-called ‘basic education’ system, built on the hugely romantic and rather eccentric idea that children should lean through self-financing handcraft. It went on to say that ‘the tendency to open new primary schools should not be encouraged and, as far as possible, resources should be concentrated on basic education and the improvement and remodelling of existing primary schools on basic lines’. Other than an outright banning of education for the lower castes and Dalit, SI does not think one would find a better prescription for a return to the middle ages. (And what makes this especially sad is that India, in the 4th Century AD, more than 600 years before the first European University was founded in Bologna, had one of the first big Universities at Nalanda. This University, run by a Buddhist foundation and supported by Hindu kings, drew students from all over Asia, and, at its peak in the seventh century had over 10,000 students in its dormitories.)

But it’s not just the outlook on education that’s the problem, it’s the delivery. In a nation-wide school survey conducted by the PROBE (Public Report On Basic Education) team in 2006, only two thirds of the students were present on the day of the survey (according to the school registrars) and even fewer according to the field investigators’ direct observations. In addition, there was considerable absenteeism of teachers as well, in addition to widespread late arrival and early departure problems. Given that 12% of schools had only 1 appointed teacher at the time of the survey, any teacher absenteeism at all is a huge problem. Furthermore, on the day of the survey, 21% of the schools were operating as single teacher schools and, to make matters worse, half of the schools had no teaching activity at all at the time of the investigators’ unannounced visit! (Why? Due to the relatively high salaries accorded to appointed teachers, there is a reluctance to make appointments. In addition, appointed teachers typically have the equivalent of tenure and there is little oversight.)

Officially, there are supposed to be about 200 school days per year. But with a teacher absenteeism rate that was found to be about 20%, a pupil absenteeism rate of about 33%, the chance of both a pupil and a teacher being present on the same day is about 50%. Then there is the chronic problem of a lack of teaching activity and the fact that a given student only gets taught about half the time the student and teacher are both present on a teaching day. The net result is that the average student gets about 50 teaching days per year, or one fourth of what the student would get in a well-functioning school system!

For a considerable portion of the population, the words of Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore (1913, Literature), spoken in an interview with Izvestia in 1930, still ring true. In my view the imposing tower of misery which today rests on the heart of India has its sole foundation in the absence of education. Because, as Dreze and Sen point out in their work, in a society, particularly in the modern world, where so much depends on the written medium, being illiterate is like being imprisoned, and school education opens a door through with people can escape incarceration.

This lack of education is a big contributor to the Unemployment problem in India. (After all, how can you even apply for any meaningful work in our modern economy if you can’t even read and write?) While the official unemployment rate is 9.9% (as per a press release from the Labour Bureau of the Government of India), the problem is much, much worse than that. (How can it not be when over two thirds of your population has to survive on less than $2 US dollars a day?) Consider the recent example of SBI, the nation’s biggest bank, who in April of last year decided they wanted to recruit 1,500 employees and received over 1,700,000 applications?

While the Indian economy did create approximately 60 Million jobs between 2000 and 2005, during the forefront of the outsourcing craze, it did not create more than 2.8 Million between 2005 and 2010 (as per the Institute of Applied Manpower [IAM]). And while the loss of jobs in the agricultural sector was absorbed in the construction sector, the IAM estimates that 5 Million construction jobs were lost between 2005 and 2010. In addition, 93% of the Indian workforce is interim or informal and receive no health insurance, retirement pension, or basic benefits. As a result, the real unemployment statistic is estimated by experts (Source: WorldCrunch) to be around 20% and doesn’t include the interim or informal workers, especially in rural areas or employed in season sectors, who are underemployed.

And the problem is likely to get even worse. The population in India is still increasing, and in order to maintain the current levels of employment, India needs to add about one million jobs a month, but only managed to add about 50,000 a month between 2005 and 2010, one twentieth of the required number! An educated population could at least try to seek work elsewhere, or, like the services sector, compete to bring more work in. An uneducated population, on the other hand … well, ask South Sudan, Afghanistan, or Niger how an utter lack of literacy is working out for them! (Or even Belize, Bangladesh, or Syria — with slightly higher literacy rates, but still quite low with respect to the developed world.)

You CAN NOT Protect Your Supply Chain Against Disruption Without Visibility!

A recent article on protecting your supply chain against disruption had some very good ideas for protecting your supply chain against disruption, but all were useless without visibility as most of them could not be carried out effectively without visibility. How critical is good visibility? Let’s review the suggestions.

Perform a supply chain vulnerability audit.

How can you assess vulnerability without a good supply chain map? Without visibility, how can you see beyond the first tier to find sole-source arrangements in the sub-tiers that are putting your entire supply chain at risk.

Do a rigorous “what-if” analysis.

If you don’t have a good map, you can’t analyze what would happen if you changed a supplier, changed a distribution lane, shifted production, etc.

Implement a strategic supply chain plan.

How can you judge the value of the plan if you can’t fully analyze the effects of its implementation and the chances of the mitigations it contains succeeding in the effect of a disruption? And, as per above, you need visibility for a full and proper analysis.

Create a balance between supply chain network efficiency and operations resilience.

The only way to determine if a plan is balanced is to do extensive what-if analyses that consider various perturbations of, and disruptions to, the normal scenario and see if the chain remains operational. These models can only be built with extensive visibility.

Design long-term strategies.

This also requires significant what-if analysis and detailed supply chain data, which in turn requires extensive supply chain visibility.

However, if you have good supply chain visibility, you can do all of this, and more, and truly secure your supply chain against significant disruption. And then you will have resiliency too. To find out more about the ROI of Supply Chain Resiliency, download the SI Illumination, sponsored by Resilinc.

Facebook’s Next Target: Relationships!

Today’s guest post is from Anonymous.

Oh… my… God! Can you imagine? Facebook post rates fall from an average of 1.66 posts per day to a shocking 1.56 posts per day, at the point where a couple announces they are “in a relationship”. (Source: The Fascinating Anatomy of a Facebook Relationship)

Why? The happy couple is so entranced with their new status, and with their new life together, that they REDUCE their Facebook participation by an astounding 0.10 posts per day!

So what does this mean? Let’s assume that the average day contains about 3 hours of leisure time. We assume, of course, that 1.56/1.66 of it is still devoted to Facebook (like the Facebook data scientists). Therefore 0.1/1.66 of it is spent on your basic brick-and-mortar relationship stuff, or, hmm, let’s see…. (grabs calculator) … 10.8 minutes!

And, not surprisingly, this time correlates quite well with the average time intercourse lasts. (Source: Thank You, Doctors: The Average Sex Time Is Not as Long as You’d Think)

Those nasty Facebook data scientists!

Thank you, Anonymous!

It’s the 250th Anniversary of St. Louis

A major port on the Mississippi River for almost two centuries (with active steamboats since 1818), it was once the fourth largest city in the USA and the gateway to the western territory to the United States after the Louisiana Purchase.  Steamboats have been   One hundred and ten years ago it hosted the World’s Fair and the summer olympics as the first non-European city to do so. The World’s Fair gave St. Louis it’s Forst Park, Art Museum, History Museum, and Zoo.  It may no longer be in the top 50 cities by population size in the US, but it’s history as an important trade nexus should not be forgotten.  

Sadly, It Looks Like the doctor’s 2014 Procurement Prediction is Going to Come True!

In Prediction Time Again? Ugh. (Part I and Part II), the doctor predicted that 2014 will be 2013 part II and 2009 part VI. Specifically, this means that

  • the focus will continue to be on cost-cutting and not value-creation,
  • valuable, high-ROI, technology will continue to be ignored, and
  • the training and new talent budgets will remain empty.

According to Deloitte’s recently released Global CPO Survey, 79% of CPO priorities have cost reduction as their #1 priority.

According to the Hackett Group’s recent EPM Executive Perspective on Technology Enablement: A Critical Piece of the Performance Management Puzzle, 63% of world class and 82% of peer group organizations still create management reports using spreadsheets as the primary business application.

And ProcureCon’s just-released “State of Indirect Procurement Benchmark Report”, which was complied from the responses to a benchmarking questionnaire distributed to ProcureCon Indirect West’s audience of procurement and sourcing practitioners, found that 55% of attendees at the event felt that their Procurement team was not adequately staffed and 60% of their organizations had no plans to increase the team size.

It’s a dismal state of affairs indeed.

If you need ideas to help kickstart your Supply Management organization and get out of this quagmire, consider joining the doctor at the inaugural ProcureCon Canada event (and register with code PCA14SI). Let’s share ideas, knowledge, and a commitment to moving the discipline forward, even if we need to light a few fires.