Category Archives: Blogologue

the doctor Would Like to Assure Mid-Size Distributors that (Logistics) Opportunities Do Abound

the doctor recently stumbled on an article titled “Globalization – Risk and Opportunity for Mid-Sized Distributors”, and was quite disappointed. Even though the article suggests that there are lots of opportunities for mid-sized distributors who are flexible, transparent, collaborative, and customer-focussed, it asks more questions than it gives answers. This leaves one the impression that the opportunities will not be there until the questions are answered, and that, more importantly, there might not be any good answers.

Furthermore, like the article titled “Impact of Globalization in Creating Sustainable Competitive Advantage”, which the doctor stumbled upon while looking to see if there were any good articles out there that would point mid-size distributors in the right direction, it didn’t seem to say anything specific, or anything new for that matter. I don’t think there’s a single mid-size distributor out there who does not realize that at no other time have distributors faced such an urgent need to know themselves – their capabilities, their relationship potentials and their willingness to put aside comfortable notions of doing business in favor of growing in unforeseen ways and that their core must be built around the customer because, with rising energy costs (and, thus, rising logistics costs) on top of the quickening pace of globalization, they’re all feeling the crunch. I don’t think there isn’t a single distributor that isn’t asking the question “Here’s what they [my customers] are buying – how do we supply it?” every-time they lose a bid and I don’t think that simply telling them to ask What are my strategic competencies? What do I provide that the customer needs? And the corollaries: What does the customer need that I don’t provide, and what do I provide that the customer doesn’t need is very useful. If they’re not asking these questions already, they’re out of business. And more importantly, what do product evaluations have to do with a distributor who’s just an intermediary who enables the global supply chain and merely wants to stay an enabler, and not become a product or brand manager?

The answer for a mid-size distributor that wants to seize new opportunities and keep business from migrating to the bigger distributors, or the customers themselves, is the same answer that the big distributors give when a customer asks them why they are the best partner – bigger, better, faster, cheaper – but instead of “bigger volumes, and better prices”, the mid-size distributor is instead providing “bigger service, better value“. More importantly, the distributor is providing this “bigger service, better value” by using its nimbleness and hunger to partner with 3PLs, Global Trade Specialists, and (Network) Optimization Providers to offer its customer an integrated global trade and logistics management platform to help them get the right product at the right price at the right time – every time. Let’s face it, despite the importance of optimization and the value it brings – either due to its price tag, (perceived) lack of usability (as many solutions aren’t very usable), or the fear it inspires in transactional-focussed old-school purchasers, most organizations have not yet adopted either sourcing or supply network optimization solutions. Furthermore, it’s only recently that the compounding security, regulatory compliance, denied party lists, and classification codes have multiplied to the point where management of all of the information has become virtually impossible (even for the largest organization with lots of manpower) and only within the past year that solutions to manage this level of trade data complexity have emerged. Finally, only the largest organizations have dedicated logistics teams with preferred 3PL firms or carriers.

Therefore, any mid-sized distributor who could offer its customers access to an on-demand web-based integrated global trade and logistics management platform is going to be much more attractive than your standard big box distributor who still believes that you should buy from them because they have the most volume. After all, without these systems, how are the big box distributors going to know that the trinket from Zimbabwe contains remains from an endangered animal that is banned from import into Canada, or that the US has just put a certain Chinese manufacturer on its denied party list for one too many batches of tainted toothpaste.

So don’t fret, opportunities abound – especially if you’re willing to be innovative. Then you’ll truly be your customers’ first choice.

the doctor Would Like To Remind You (that the One System Solution is Still a Pipe Dream)

The One System Solution Is Still a Pipe Dream! And no vendor is going to get all of the pieces right no matter how big they are or how many resources they have. I bring this up because, in talking to a number of smaller, innovative, vendors lately the number one reason that they’re offering as to why they’re not getting more business is because a number of customers are apparently demanding a one vendor solution when it comes to their sourcing or procurement technology platform. This is ludicrous! (Not to be confused with Ludacris.)

If one vendor could get all the pieces right, don’t you think it would have happened by now? Don’t you think that either Microsoft, IBM, SAP, or Oracle would already have the perfect solution? And more importantly, don’t you already deal with a plethora of technology vendors – and a slew of hardware, software, and consulting vendors to boot?

It’s not about one vendor – it’s about one platform. And by platform, I mean a common architecture and communication capability, not a specific vendor software offering. What’s important is that you choose a set of products that support a set of standard protocols for data interchange, because then you can use best of breed solutions for each part of the sourcing and procurement process – and that’s the key to extracting real value from the process. Let’s face it – it’s not just about integration and automation – because there’ll always be exceptions, so you’ll never get rid of all of your tactical staff. Furthermore, the more the suite doesn’t do with regards to best practice sourcing and procurement, the more people you’ll need to do those tasks manually, so you’ll just be switching out tactical staff for more strategic staff – who won’t be as productive as they could be because you don’t have a best of breed solution!

The reality is that most of your savings will come from proper application of advanced analytics tools for spend analysis, award optimization, and risk management – and, let’s be honest here, weak imitations will not cut it! A static reporting application on top of a data warehouse is not spend analysis; monte-carlo simulation or heuristic evaluation of a handful of possible award scenarios is not optimization; and the ability to identify risks is not the ability to manage them.

So next time a marketplace gorilla tries to tell you that maybe a single suite solution will be better, take a quote from Wayne and say “and maybe monkeys will fly out of my butt“! And next time you find yourself starting to fall for such a line, got get a cup of joe and jump in a cold shower. The only valid reasons not to consider a best of breed provider are that they don’t make the solution you need, they don’t (and don’t plan to) support the standard protocols that your platform is based on, or the value they provide is not sufficiently more than the value a competitor with a broader solution provides. I’m not saying the little guy with a best of breed solution will always be better, it depends upon your specific needs, but “not a suite” is not a valid reason. It’s your problem – shouldn’t you get the set of solutions that are right for you?

the doctor Takes His Turn With the (Supply Management) Magic 8-Ball – Part II

As I said yesterday, everywhere you look, someone is summarizing the best of 2007 or making their predictions about the forthcoming year on a technology-by-technology or vendor-by-vendor basis. However, since the nature of futurism is that it’s virtually impossible to get the micro-level details correct, I’m instead asking the Magic 8-Ball what’s in store for a dozen vendors in the year ahead. I’ll continue to indicate whether or not I agree, but remind you that these will just be the doctor‘s best guesses. The only true way to see what the future holds is to wait for it to be revealed.

Enporion
Question: Is this the year Enporion breaks out of the utility space with their e-Procurement offering?
 8-ball : As I see it, yes
Question: Will they get more than a handful of new customers outside of the utility space?
 8-ball : Ask again later
Question: Is this the year Enporion innovates a new solution that will finally grab them some attention?
 8-ball : Signs point to yes

I think, desperate for a solution that has actually been developed or improved upon in the past year, those companies not ready to adopt an open source solution like Coupa but that still want a new e-Procurement solution will finally take a closer look at Enporion. However, they have a history of being associated with the utility space, so unless they make a concerted, focussed effort to show that they have expanded beyond that space, it could take a while before potential customers see them as a general purpose procurement provider. As for innovation – this could be their year. They’ve been developing all their solutions in house for years, have adopted a process-driven visual model development platform solution that allows for rapid application development (once the platform is sufficiently mastered), and they have been working with some pretty big customers to try and develop fresh new applications. They’re definitely another company to add to the watch list.

i2
Question: Is this the year i2 breaks back into the sourcing scene?
 8-ball : Reply hazy, try again
Question: Is there new AGILE platform strategy a good move?
 8-ball : Most likely

The fate of i2 is another toughie. We’re certainly well beyond the point where any company is going to spend millions of dollars on a multi-year engagement on the promise of a big payoff in the future when they’re hemorrhaging cash today. Thus, an AGILE strategy where a company can start small on a six figure budget to attack their biggest problems first is certainly going to make i2 more attractive to the marketplace. Plus, even though i2 can’t make them public (or at least can’t make them public, yet), I know they’ve gotten a couple of big wins under their belt in the past year and that they’re definitely ready to play in the manufacturing and industrial sectors.

Iasta
Question: Now that Ariba has taken out Procuri, is this Iasta’s year to shine?
 8-ball : It is decidedly so
Question: Will Iasta continue to develop new offerings, as they did this year with Strategic Sourcing Decision Optimization?
 8-ball : Without a Doubt
Question: Will they become a serious competitor to Ariba and Emptoris?
 8-ball : Better not tell you now

Iasta has been essentially doubling its customer base and revenues for six years, offering new functionality every year since its inception, and has recently advanced beyond just being another suite vendor to a suite vendor with innovative best of breed offerings in two key areas – spend analysis and decision optimization. Plus, rumor has it they are tackling even harder problems in their efforts to become a truly innovative player in the space.

MFG.com
Question: Will MFG.com get the growth they’re seeking in 2008?
 8-ball : Concentrate and ask again
Question: Will the Sourcing Parts Acquisition Pay off this year?
 8-ball : Most likely
Question: Will they breakout among companies looking to improve their China sourcing operations?
 8-ball : As I see it, yes

Let’s face it – new supplier discovery is hard, but a trustworthy service that has detailed information on potential suppliers along with buyer ratings can make it easier. This alone should insure that MFG.com continues to grow. As for whether or not any new innovations from MFG.com will help them, that’s a good question. Even though its free for buyers, there’s a big difference between a basic free sourcing solution and a best-of-breed enterprise solution. Although the free tools may help smaller companies, its likely that they won’t be enough for larger buyers.

Oracle
Question: Will they ever get Fusion, now delayed until 2009, working?
 8-ball : Outlook not so good
Question: Will they have a competitive sourcing / procurement offering in the next two years?
 8-ball : Don’t count on it

I think the magic 8-ball is pretty close here. I don’t think they’ll have a competitive sourcing or procurement application this decade, but given the resources at their disposal, there’s a good chance they’ll eventually get Fusion working. I just wouldn’t count on it – and I definitely wouldn’t buy on promises alone.

SAP
Question: Will SAP pull it together this year?
 8-ball : Very doubtful
Question: Before the decade is over?
 8-ball : Cannot predict now
Question: Will they at least put some effort into updating and maintaining Frictionless until they pull SAP SRM together?
 8-ball : My sources say no.

The magic 8-ball might be on a streak here. SAP is another slow moving behemoth that is not likely to turn on a dime, or even the large hadron collider. It will likely be quite a while before they have a best of breed solution.

Vinimaya
Question: Is the Vinimaya Network the future of Supplier Networks?
 8-ball : It is decidedly so
Question: Is this the year they breakout?
 8-ball : Reply hazy, try again

Vinimaya is a very innovative and progressive solution when compared to many of the other supplier networks out there. As such, they face the same issues BIQ is facing – a market that might not be ready to accept that there might be much better solutions than the solutions they are using today and give Vinimaya an honest evaluation. However, when the time comes that the majority of the market is ready to accept a next generation supplier network, it’s very likely that Vinimaya will be a major player.

the doctor Takes His Turn With the (Supply Management) Magic 8-Ball – Part I

Everywhere you look, someone is summarizing the best of 2007 or making their predictions about the forthcoming year on a technology-by-technology or vendor-by-vendor basis. However, since the nature of futurism is that it’s virtually impossible to get the micro-level details correct, I’ll instead ask the Magic 8-Ball what’s in store for a bakers dozen of vendors in the year ahead. I’ll also indicate whether or not I agree, but point out that these will just be the doctor‘s best guesses – not statements of fact.

Aravo
Question: Will Aravo finally hit its groove with its new Sustainability Program Management Platform?
 8-ball : Signs point to yes
Question: What about their new blog – 2Sustain?
 8-ball : Outlook Not So Good

Aravo has a good supplier information management solution and a good sustainability management solution with its ability to manage massive amounts of data on a web-based platform where all data can be maintained through a centralized interface that allows each relevant party to maintain its own data. They certainly deserve to take off, either on their own or through a strategic merger or acquisition, but its hard to say when, or how, that will happen. As for the blog, due to the lack of regular posting, I don’t think it will be a big hit – but it will be a good tool to get the message out about what Aravo is trying to accomplish to potential customers.

Ariba
Question: Is this the year Ariba gets innovative?
 8-ball : Very doubtful
Question: Will they successfully integrate the best of Procuri?
 8-ball : Better not tell you now
Question: Will they at least support Procuri through 2009?
 8-ball : Don’t count on it

So, does the 8-ball have it right? Maybe. As far as the doctor is concerned, Ariba hasn’t been truly innovative in a long time, and even though Procuri had innovation in them, it’s a reality that most acquisitions usually result in the loss of a substantial amount of the innovative talent in the company being acquired, even if the acquiring company tries to keep them. Furthermore, even if they do support Procuri for longer than everyone is expecting, it’s probably safe to say that the integration of the best features of one platform into the other will take longer than predicted, since that is the industry norm. But regardless of what happens, you can be sure they’ll be putting out press releases at least every other week and getting lots of media attention.

BIQ
Question: Is this the year that people finally understand the difference between static reporting on data warehouses and true spend analysis?
 8-ball : Concentrate and ask again
Question: If it is, will BIQ finally break into the limelight?
 8-ball : Yes – definitely
Question: If it isn’t, will BIQ still continue steady growth?
 8-ball : You may rely on it
Question: Will BIQ continue to innovate in spend analysis?
 8-ball : It is certain
Question: Will BIQ finally get the media / analyst attention it deserves?
 8-ball : Outlook not so good.

I hate to say it, but I think the 8-ball is on one heck of a roll. BIQ is likely to keep innovating, likely to be one of the few companies that actually understands what spend analysis is, and one of the few companies that actually offers a real spend analysis solution. However, it’s also likely that, thanks to the confusing B.S. being spread by most of the vendors in the space, that this will not be the year where the average buyer realizes what the difference is between static reporting on data warehouses and true spend analysis (despite my efforts). It’s also likely that the media and so-called analysts will continue to ignore BIQ in favor of the larger vendors with the larger marketing budgets. However, once someone sees their solution, I predict that, at least in the indirect space, they’ll win more deals than they lose and continue to grow.

Co-exprise
Question: Now that Co-exprise has started promoting its new solution, are buyers going to accept it?
 8-ball : Most likely
Question: Will the next release contain all of the key requirements of spend analysis for direct sourcing?
 8-ball : Signs point to yes

I’ve reviewed the Co-exprise platform twice – and I’m impressed with what they’ve been able to do in a relatively short time. They don’t show any signs of slowing down on the development front, so it’s more likely than not that they’ll continue to innovate and achieve the goals they’ve laid out. Also, due to the lack of integrated PLM and sourcing solutions in the direct sourcing space, I think many buyers are starving for options (since the only other option for some of these companies is Siemens PLM – which was the UGS / e-Breviate solution), and that a fair number will accept it – or at least give it a shot.

Emptoris
Question: Is this the year that Emptoris gets innovative?
 8-ball : Concentrate and ask again
Question: Is this the year that Emptoris makes another acquisition?
 8-ball : Reply hazy, try again
Question: Is Emptoris going to go public this year?
 8-ball : Signs point to yes
Question: Any chance that they’ll succeed in luring away droves of Ariba / Procuri customers and possibly become the number one player in the next year or two?
 8-ball : Cannot predict now

Well that’s a pretty non-commital 8-ball – but it’s probably right. With Emptoris, you just never know.

the doctor Wants To Assure You That This Blog Is Not Evil

The unnaturally observant will notice that this is the 666th post. Knowing that the majority of readers of this blog are from North America or the UK, that the predominant religion in these parts of the world is Christian, and that many Christians associate 666 with the number of the beast, I feel that it is important to point out, for their piece of mind, that this blog is not evil. Furthermore, this post does not have any special significance.

I should also note that I do make it a point to expose the truth wherever I can find it – be it the elephants in the room that your vendor would rather keep hidden behind the blind; the myths that salespeople use to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt; or the reality with respect to what a technology-based product can, or can not, do. While it’s true that I will praise certain vendors on their innovative technology or service offerings, it’s also true that I will harshly criticize others for promising more than what they are really delivering. Moreover, if all they’re doing is serving up last year’s outdated technology in a new shiny wrapper, I can be quite harsh in my scathing expose. And if they’re all haughty about it, or their messaging is way over the top, then it’s the case that I’m likely to open the water tower door and let out the Sourcing Maniacs.

Okay, maybe this blog is just a little bit evil.