Category Archives: Economics

What Impact Will a 9% Drop in Profits Have On Your Organization?

Unless your Supply Management organization takes it to the next level, your company is facing a 9% drop in corporate profits this year due to rising prices and other inflationary pressure according to a recent Hackett Group study. For a typical Global 1000 company with 27.8 billion in revenue, Hackett’s study estimated that commodity and offshore labor inflation will drive a 150 million per year hit to the bottom line. Ouch!

Why? While most companies are now able to effectively anticipate commodity price increases, more than 60% of companies surveyed by Hackett in the recent study have not been successful at mitigating these cost increases. The reality is that few executives have experienced significant inflation, which is now at levels not seen in 30 years (when inflation rates hovered around 13% back in 1981).

And while inflation may not yet be at 13%, it is bad. Not only do respondents to the Hackett study expect the rate of inflation for commodities overall to rise by more than 30%, to 6.3% a year, but commodity price volatility has increased nearly 60% since before the recession. Making matters worse, at the same time, due to the talent crunch, the rate for internal labor is expected to more than triple from 0.7% to 2.2% and the rate of inflation for external labor is expected to more than double from 1.2% to 3%.

The problem, as identified by the Hackett study, is that most companies tend to take a fragmented, siloed approach to anticipating and mitigating costs. And while more advanced companies will forecast prices and do some basic hedging by adjusting contract length, purchase volumes, or inventory levels, few take the cross-functional approach required to combat the mitigation. The majority of companies do not do the analysis required to understand the impact of commodity cost increases on profitability, do not use specialized analytics to anticipate future commodity costs, and do not provide clear direction and policy for making hedging decisions. A future post will explore in greater detail some of the options presented in Hackett’s study on “Taming the Inflation Dragon” and why your organization must adopt more advanced

Is Your Supply Management Organization About to Move to Asia?

As per this recent article over on the McKinsey Quarterly on “Translating Innovation into US Growth: An Advanced-Industries Perspective”, the US is posed for a future in which the elements of economic leadership are moving abroad. The US might still be the global leader in R&D spending overall, but in order to maintain its competitive edge, it has to be able to devise innovations the world wants and needs and translate those into economic leadership.

Economic leadership requires more than a capital market system that encourages (and rewards) risk taking and entrepreneurship, more than simply attracting top students and teachers globally, and more than bulk spending. As per the article, it also requires cutting-edge technology, demand, talent, and entrepreneurial spirit. And, right now, the US is falling behind on each of these.

Cutting-Edge Technology
In leading industrial technologies — such as advanced batteries, high-speed rail, hybrid automobiles, solar modules, offshore wind turbines, and machine tools — the United States finds itself competing against, or even catching up, with foreign companies and engineers. Furthermore, as the article notes, the US is now relying on Japan, Russian, and Western Europe to launch its satellites — an industry it used to pretty much own globally. If the US can’t even compete in green energy, it’s in for trouble.

Demand
More than 50% of the global middle class now lives outside North America and the demand for many next-generation products is now coming from Asia, Latin Ameria, and the Middle East. These customers are creating new markets and dictating preferences. US products for the US market are no longer profitable on their own in many industries.

Talent
Scientific and engineering talent is now building up outside the US while one-third of US manufacturing companies are suffering from skills shortages. Cutting edge research is moving to India and China as well as accelerating in Japan and Germany.

Entrepreneurial Spirit
Once a mainstay of the private sector, risk aversion to new vetures is increasing across the board in the US. At the same time, the “new” India is becoming much more entrepreneurial and risk taking. It’s not a good combination.

Then, when you also consider:

Cost
Many emerging countries have labour and overall operating costs that are still only a third of labour and operational costs in North America or Europe.

Success
A number of global multinationals, including IBM, have proved that you can move global Financial, Services, and Supply Management organizations to China and India and still be a world-class organization.

it becomes impossible not to ask if your supply management organization is about to move to Asia.

Should You Manufacture That Product?

A recent article over on Industry Week that asked you to “show me the money” laid out six money questions that the author believes should be asked and answered before a manufacturing decision is made because a product that can’t be manufactured affordably shouldn’t be manufactured at all. As a supply chain professional, it’s your job to ask, and answer, these questions even if product development doesn’t, and even if the product can’t be cut, your job to figure out if it’s cheaper to build in house or outsource.

So, what are the key questions that should be answered?

  • How much will the total project cost?
  • How many products will be sold in a year? and
  • How many years will it take to get your investment back if you manufacture in house?

If the ROI will take years because an investment in new technology is needed, then, even if outsourcing adds cost, it might be the right idea.

For more insights, including the questions to asks (and calculations to do) if you’re trying to decide whether or not to manufacture a product in the first place, see the article.

Procurement Is Worth IT

So listen to the CPO Agenda when it says that Procurement Professionals should get bonuses, even though it might make this recommendation for the wrong reasons.

If Sales gets bonuses for making a sale, which brings the organization X cents to the bottom line for every dollar sold, then Procurement, which brings the organization 5X to 20X cents to the bottom line for every X dollars saved should definitely be in line for a bonus.

Plus, as the CPO Agenda suggests, if fixed costs are still a problem from a (short-sighted) organizational viewpoint, performance-based bonuses should be much less of a problem, especially if they are based on cost avoidance or savings, as a CFO can’t argue with numbers that improve the bottom-line 10X as much as the same numbers from Sales improve the bottom line.

Plus, if you want to retain talent, this is the best way to do it. Just like a hedge fund manager jumps to the investment house that will give him the biggest reward, your stars are going to jump to the organizations which give them the biggest rewards. And as much as you’d like to think that work-life balance, empowerment, and sustainability are important to your team, in general, nothing compares to a bigger paycheck which gives your star the ability to control their own work-life balance, a feeling of empowerment, and the ability to financially support their own sustainability goals.

So give your stars performance-based bonuses. They’re worth it.

Productivity Truths

The McKinsey Quarterly recently ran a great article on “five misconceptions about productivity” (registration required) that is a must read for anyone thinking about not greenlighting an investment in new supply chain technology. As per the article:

  • Productivity IS a priority
    In order for the US to sustain its average historical GDP growth of 3.3% with the projected declines in labor-force growth, productivity growth needs to increase at an annual rate of 2.3% — a rate of growth not achieved since the 1960s. And since the supply chain is the dominant driver of productivity in most organizations, supply chain needs every productivity increase it can get.
  • Productivity IS a job saver
    With a continuing lack of credit and a slow sales rebound in most sectors, your average company can not afford to hire and still has a significant need to do more with less as it first has to grow with the resources it has. Productivity increases help a company keep costs under control, which reduces the chances it will need to layoff.
  • Productivity gains ALSO come from increasing value
    If a new technology will allow the company to identify value or increase value, it’s a must. For example, an analytics system that will help pinpoint key value addes across a product line, new sustainable warehouse technologies (such as hybrid vehicles), or investments in new technologies that reduce plant energy requirements, can increase profit, brand image, and/or sales.
  • Productivity IS AS important to leaders as losers
    How do you think leaders stay leaders? They continue to make gains year after year!
  • There is NO LIMIT to Productivity Gains
    McKinsey’s research estimates that three quarters of the productivity gains required by the US can be achieved simply by applying best practices across the private sector! Imagine what new technology and methodologies could do!