Category Archives: Orchestration

… so What’s the Real Future for Procurement Tech?

Yesterday we pointed out that SOFIA Killed BOB and Replaced POE with a Black Box Agent, which forces us to ask what’s the real future for Procurement Tech?

As we noted in our last post, twenty (20) years ago the debate was BOB (Best-of-Breed) vs POE (Platform Oriented Enterprise — a [mini] Suite solution).

It was a real debate — best-of-breed modules gave you what you wanted and delivered value, but a slew of disconnected modules is not very productive. (Mini) Suites solved the dis-connectivity problem, but came with their own problems. Given that most were quickly built out on top of one or two core modules, and modules beyond those were barely MVP (that even startups would be shy releasing), you were sometimes lucky to get the 60% to 80% functionality the vendor promised.

SOFIA ((Solution Orchestration Framework Integration Architecture) was supposed to end the debate. Real orchestration solutions that would allow organizations to BYO-BOB (bring-your-own-best-of-breed) for any and all modules they wanted to construct their ProcureTech (and, hopefully, SupplyTech) platforms, but fell short. Part of the reason is that they started as intake to make the big suites usable, and didn’t start building a true, native, orchestration architecture — making it difficult for them to quickly and easily orchestrate the plethora of platforms that customers throw at them. The other part of the problem is that the majority of (classic) SaaS platforms weren’t built to be orchestrated, and, frankly, can’t be.

And using AI-first tools to quickly vibe-code the most common MVP modules customers want that can be “orchestrated out of the box”, doesn’t solve the problem. It just devolves the solution into a classic POE solution (but with less security — one of the big flaws of vibe coding). So SOFIA isn’t solving anything either.

Now, if you ask GAIN, the future is “AI Employees” (which aren’t real). Like any LLM-based solution, they will work great until a Grade A Hallucination results in buying millions of dollars of the wrong product, selecting a sanctioned supplier, or sending money to a dark-web criminal organization. Then it won’t. (At first, it will just order 3,000 pairs of gloves for an automated cafe for a lone worker, because it’s cheaper. LLM-based AI has already done that. Look it up.)

Probabilistic AI (where hallucinations are a core function that CANNOT be trained out) is not the answer and should never be used for more than suggestions.

So what is?

An enterprise SaaS platform rebuilt on a proper intake and orchestration platform (that supports rules-based agentic automation, i.e. [A]RPA) that was originally built to be domain independent and just solve the data and workflow integration challenges. In other words, if Coupa rebuilt on Tonkean (which won’t happen for so many reasons), that could be close to the answer. Zip and Oro were built too quick or too focussed to be the answer. It will be true orchestration platforms you don’t yet know that get acquired by tier-2 suite players with a lot of tech debt that rebuild on those orchestration platforms (that also built native intake) which can seamlessly integrate with next-gen SaaS platforms with secure, full, open APIs that allow for full data push and pull and programmatic function and workflow execution.

In other words, it will be domain specific SOFIAs. Not POE (which is too limited) and not Fake AI Employees.

The question is, who will create theirs first?

SOFIA Killed BOB and Replaced POE with a Black Box Agent …

What’s the real future of Procurement Tech?

Twenty (20) Years Ago, we asked What about BoB? when the debate in ProcureTech between BOB (Best-of-Breed) vs. POE (Platform Oriented Enterprise) was getting drowned out by the emerging suite players.

Did you go out and assemble your own suite of best-of-breed modules to suit your needs, and then pay the consultancy integrators big bucks to integrate them, or simplify your life, settle for a 60% to 80% solution and buy a suite that gave you an all-in-one solution (and bypassed difficult and expensive integration requirements) that was hopefully strongest where your core needs were?

It was a valid hot debate because most suites were centred on one (or two) strong modules that the firm was founded on, with the other modules either hastily built to what the firm considered an MVP so that they could sell a (mini) suite or acquired (and partially integrated) so they could have a suite, even though some of the modules were loosely connected (and sometimes even built on entirely different UX philosophies with noticeably different user interfaces).

Furthermore, twenty years ago, the bigger the suite was, the worse or more disconnected part of the suite was. In the beginning, most vendors started as e-Sourcing or e-Procurement and mini S2C and P2P suites were built up around those modules, respectively. S2P suites were usually built by one mini-suite vendor acquiring another (or, in rare cases, a CLM or SXM vendor realizing they needed both and getting the help of an investment firm). You had frankensuites built from three (3) primary solutions (and, in some cases, fattened up by additional acquisitions over time), which felt as disconnected as they were to use. However, the one-vendor-throat-to-choke and one-implementation-team comforted the C-suite and those purchases were easier than trying to get permission to acquire a bunch of best-of-breed solutions and then write a big cheque to an integration consultancy that you hope can get the solutions to all work together, at least until major solution upgrades, in which case the consultancy will have to come back and upgrade the integration.

Then orchestration came along and SOFIA (Solution Orchestration Framework Integration Architecture) was supposed to settle the debate once and for all. With modern orchestration solutions, you were supposed to be able to bring your own best-of-breeds, integrate them all with modern orchestration, and either use their native intake, or bring your own, to open up their solutions to everyone who needs access. That was the theory. The practical reality is different.

I’m not sure if it’s still the case, but for years, neither you nor your consulting and integration partners could integrate your own solutions with Zip — Zip had to do it internally because it was too complicated and needed to be done a specific way. Oro, first designed to make Ariba usable and then to make other major last-generation suite solutions usable, provided you with a similar situation — partner solutions are pre-integrated and easy to onboard, other solutions took time. Then there’s Tonkean, now part of Coupa, that could integrate anything if they did it and you gave them the time to do it. Time being the key word. (They were essentially assembling an application for you … no quick out-of-the-box configuration!)

None work(ed) out of the box, and there’s two reasons for that.

The first is that you can’t quickly MVP generic orchestration solutions that are flexible, powerful, easy to use and work with today’s SaaS — the Enterprise has to be carefully thought out and designed and the coding talent needed is not the script-kiddie drop out talent that many (AI-first) firms are employing.

The second is that most platforms, frankly, weren’t even built for integration, which means that they definitely weren’t built for orchestration. Modern orchestration requires more than the ability to push some data in, and pull some data out. First of all, it requires the ability to push all data in and pull all data out. Secondly, it requires the ability to programmatically trigger and execute functions and workflows from external sources. Most platforms don’t support that (well). As a result, orchestration platforms don’t work. If the platform doesn’t have, and completely expose, its API (through secure channels to apps with appropriate security credentials), orchestration is not truly possible.

As a result, most of the big orchestration providers are trying to use AI-first tools (and vibe coding, which, as we’ve made clear many times, only produces vibes that are please to the smug sniffing coders who use it, not good code) to quickly code their own S2P apps and modules, and essentially reverting to a POE (2.0) solution — internalizing their orchestration solution as a platform oriented enterprise to build a next-gen classical suite solution. (Oxymoron intended!)

But is that the future? (Hopefully not!)

Dangerous Procurement Predictions Part III

As per our first two posts, if you read my predictions post, you know SI hates predictions posts. It fully despises them because the vast majority of these posts are pure optimistic fantasy and help no one. Why are the posts like this? Because no one wants to hear the sobering reality off of the bat in the new year and the influencers care more about clicks than actually helping you.

But the predictions are not only bad, they’re dangerous if you believe them. So we are continuing to lay bare the reality of the situation to make sure you understand that this year isn’t much different than last year, no miracles are coming, and only hard work and the application of your human intelligence are going to get you anywhere. Today we tackle the next three, and while we hope we’re getting close to the end of the series, we’re pretty sure there will be at least one more entry.

8. Global Trade Will Shift, Prioritizing Resilience Over Cost.

In the mid to long term some trade will shift to prioritize resilience, but most trade won’t. While defence procurements, critical mineral and material acquisitions for high-end electronics, and valuable commodities that can be traded like currency (such as gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, etc.) will be shifted for resilience, the reality is that, even with natural disasters, sanctions, trade wars, and actual wars, most companies aren’t going to make any changes to their supply chains (unless given absolutely no choice) because

  • finding new suppliers (in new countries) takes time and effort
  • qualifying new suppliers (in new countries) takes time and effort
  • identifying and contracting reliable carriers takes time and effort
  • building and securing new supply lines takes time and effort
  • etc.

and most companies are in constant fire-fighting mode, overworked, overstressed, and they just don’t have the time as long as the current supply chain, while strained, still works. Until their supply completely dries up, their primary production lines and revenue streams are threatened, and they have no other choice, they won’t change because they’ll keep telling themselves random natural disasters won’t impact them, the tariffs are only temporary, sanctions change with administrations, and wars eventually end.

9. Your employees will orchestrate outcomes.

Woody Woodpecker, take it away!

The level of talent needed to orchestrate outcomes is well beyond the average level of talent in an average (and even most above average) Procurement Department(s). There’s a reason that talent is a concern, a <href=”” target=_blank>top risk, and a top barrier for not just the last five years of studies and surveys, but at least the last ten. Talent has been scarce for a decade, and the situation is much worse since COVID. COVID saw many early retirements of the forced and chosen variety. Then the constant fears of recession saw more layoffs, starting with the highest paid (and most experienced) talent first. And you can be damn sure many of them are not coming back. We told you a year ago that talent is about to become scarce, and we’re sad to say we think we underestimated just how scarce talent is about to become.

And the reality is that only top talent can orchestrate outcomes. All the vast majority of talent can do is execute tasks one by one in a well-defined process. They can’t create new processes, and they certainly can’t define new outcome-centric processes on the fly. Especially when the ORCestration platforms they are given can’t even “orchestrate” a process to lead a mouse to the cheese it desperately wants.

10. New Year, New Me.

Who were you last year?

That’s right, the same person you are this year.

This BS lasts until all the bubbly you drank on New Year’s eve wears off, the rose coloured glasses go dim from the glare of doing the same damn thing as you stare at the same damn screen 12 hours a day, and you get overwhelmed with all the same tasks you were doing last year. Within two weeks at most, the new year, new me bullcr@p disappears with your last new years resolution and you’re just fighting to survive being overworked, understaffed, underfunded, and under-resourced, especially on the tech side (because the C-Suite wasted all the budget on a Big X Consultancy Gen-AI project that never even got to beta testing because the prototype phase never actually worked).

Most people won’t even make an effort to improve, which is the best one can hope for! (So if you have an employee who does, proactively give them a raise, any training they ask for, and keep them. Because, as per our response to the last false, and dangerous, prediction, talent is scarce and you should do whatever you can to keep whatever talent you have [instead of trying to replace it with fake AI that will never work fully autonomously].)

Dangerous Procurement Predictions Part I

If you read my predictions post, you know SI hates predictions posts. It fully despises them because the vast majority of these posts are pure optimistic fantasy and help no one. Why are the posts like this? Because no one wants to hear the sobering reality off of the bat in the new year and the influencers care more about clicks than actually helping you.

But given how dangerous and costly the hopeful fantasy has become, not only did SI swallow its disgust and give you a realistic predictions post, but it’s going to collect and lay bare the most dangerous of the predictions that, even if seemingly innocuous, will lead you astray if you believe them. And now some of the influencers and LinkedIn aficionados are taking up the claims, and the charge, but like many other claims, they are overstated.

Today we tackle the first three, but you can expect this to be the first of many posts as dangerous prediction posts flood your feeds for the rest of the month.

1. The “Great Convergence” Accelerates

The claims of of the ORChestration providers is that all roads lead to them, the convergence will accelerate, and you won’t have to worry about what you need because, as long as you have orchestration, you’ll have it all!

For example, if you want to use the largest orchestration provider in S2P, your are limited to the platforms they have already integrated. The same goes for the second or third largest. Plus, if the providers you want to integrate aren’t reasonably sized Source to Pay providers, good luck expecting the workflow to support them appropriately.

Moreover, they were built to minimally support the existing solutions, not emerging solutions in the Source to Pay and extended Supply Chain Marketplace. In other words, the convergence will continue at a snails pace, but it will never be great!

2. “X” Finally Gets Modern Attention

It doesn’t matter what X is — if X has been needed, but ignored, for the last ten years, it’s NOT going to all of a sudden be addressed this year. For whatever reason, it will continue to be ignored.

Example #1, Cybersecurity.

As per my recent post on breaking down the risks: IP / cyberattacks, the risk of cyberattacks has been high since 2014, a year when 71% of organizations were affected by a successful cyberattack! Ten years later, 70% of small to medium sized businesses are still getting hit by cyberattacks. (Which means that if it was going to get major attention, shouldn’t 2014 have been the year?!?)

Nothing has changed — the reason? Cybersecurity is seen as a cost, not a return. So, when a successful attack results in significant losses, organizations spend on improved cybersecurity, and ignore it until the next significant successful attack hits, and that is the only time they will spend for new systems across the board, and that’s it. That’s why cybersecurity, inside and outside the organization, won’t get any more attention this year than last year.

Example #2, Risk Management.

There’s a big reason it’s been the exact same risks in the state of procurement studies and reports for at least the last five, if not the last ten, years. It’s because, despite the fact that risks keep increasing, no one ever does anything about it … there’s no additional investment in risk management software. Why? Again, it’s seen as a cost and not an investment. And when you’re already paying for insurance, why pay for what, at best, seems like more?

Even though the cost of insurance will soon be unaffordable given that natural disaster and fraud losses are going through the roof, if you can even get insurance at all, risk management solutions are still being ignored by every organization that hasn’t suffered a major loss as a result of a risk-related event. (And who knows if insurance will cover AI losses when AI escapes the vending machine? It’s a question you should definitely be asking!)

Example #3, Direct.

That’s supply chain, right? Right?

Wrong! But that’s the view that the vast majority of Source-to-Pay providers have taken since the beginning. Sure a few big suites picked up a few smaller players that specialized in direct sourcing, but that’s about it from the big players. And there are a few startups here and there, but they’re all overlooked, underfunded, and not getting any traction.

Because it’s hard. Damn hard. And the majority of S2P players don’t want hard. They want easy. They built easy. They sell easy. And that’s all they want to do. (And, often, all they can do!)

We could continue, but you get the point.

3. One of the big legacy S2P suites will go out of business.

This is a prediction straight from the genius of Gary Wright. Only a Dream Weaver would predict this! This has happened exactly once since our space began in the late 1990s, and it wasn’t exactly going out of business, it was a big acquirer deciding the space wasn’t profitable enough and shutting the vendor down. Specifically, it was IBM shutting down Emptoris and shunting all the customers to SAP Ariba in 2017.

Every big provider in this space is controlled by PE who have poured tens, hundreds, or thousands of millions (that’s billions) into the firm. If it starts losing money, and if they think they can’t turn it around, rather than shutting it down, they’ll flip it to another firm at a loss (to recover some investment) who will pick up some fire sale acquisitions, integrate them, update the UX, install a whole new management team, fluff it up, rebrand it, and bring it out with a whole new spin. Like ERPs, Suites never die. Even if they’re twenty years behind the times.

So if a new big player hits the scene, check under the covers, do a bit of research, and dig up those skeletons. PE knows how to make everything old new again, but tech is not like fashion, and you don’t want two decades old SaaS, as that’s just the same old sh!t.