Monthly Archives: November 2011

Have Some Lessons Been Learned by Supply Professionals?

World Trade recently ran an article on “lessons learned by supply professionals” which started out by doing a great job of proclaiming the obvious — it’s been a rough year. As noted, unemployment continues to thwart efforts to tame it, customers are becoming more conservative, and in some quarters, forward thinking and strategizing seem to have been put on hold and profits are hard to make these days.

But is there a silver lining? New opportunities borne of anxiety and the desire among clients and potential clients to overturn every stone they can find to bolster their competitive edges and their bottom lines is a good start, but not a silver lining in and of itself. And executing on the lessons learned from 2008 is something companies should already be doing.

Understanding the market is good, understanding the technology requirements of the market is better, and understanding how to utilize both to provide more value to the customers is key, but should it take an extreme harsh environment to learn the lesson? And is the consensus reaction of lengthening decision times and more deliberation right when efforts need to be made to reduce costs and create value now?

And are 3PLs really getting more business opportunities? They’ve always done, and had the ability to consult on, inventory, regardless of whether or not companies care about inventory optimization outside of down markets. And there hasn’t really been any new offerings in VMI (Vendor Managed Inventory). And leading companies have always been doing supply network optimization on a somewhat regular basis. And smart companies never chase bad deals.

It sounds to me like average company hasn’t learned much, and that it definitely has not learned that the best way to weather a storm is to prepare for it before it hits. Innovation and improvement should be continuous and strategically planned, not a one-time tactical response to a down market. That’s the one lesson worth learning.

Is A U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance Coming?

A recent article over on bcg.perspectives on “the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance” (registration required), summarized over on Supply Chain Brain (in an article that states “Manufacturing “Renaissance” to Begin Returning to U.S. Around 2015″), states that seven “tipping point” sectors are poised to return to the U.S. for manufacturing:

  • transportation goods
  • computers and electronics
  • fabricated metal products
  • machinery
  • plastics and rubber
  • appliances and electrical equipment
  • furniture

The expectation of Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is that these industry groups could boost annual output in the U.S. economy by 100 Billion while creating 2 to 3 Million jobs and lowering the U.S. non-oil merchandise trade deficit by up to 35% when combined with increased U.S. exports, starting in the next five years.

Note that these industry groups account for about 2 Trillion in U.S. consumption each year, and roughly 70% of the 300 Billion in goods imported from China. If the BCG is right, China will not only lose a huge cost advantage of the US, but a huge manufacturing advantage as well.

Why would this happen?

  • Labor costs in China are rising rapidly (at 15% to 20% a year) with required skill levels, quality and the rising yuan; the gap between US and China labor costs will be less than 40% by 2015
  • U.S. productivity is increasing
  • Factory automation is increasing, and a robot costs the same whether you operate it in China and the US
  • shipping and import costs (due to all of the security and
    paper trail requirements) are rising
  • management costs are rising with travel costs, as on site visits are becoming more expensive

It’s pretty clear that China is on its way out as a manufacturing location of choice for many industries and American companies, with the exception of those that have invested in World Class Facilities (like Apple, etc.) that could not be cost-effectively replicated elsewhere. But will the Renaissance take place in the US, or will we see a return to Mexico? That is not quite as clear.

Halloween Sponsorship Special

The rest of 2011 FREE for any new sponsor who signs up for all of 2012 (at published rates) until all slots are full. If you’re interested, and have the authority to contract on behalf on behalf of your organization, send an e-mail to us in the next 48 hours. (By 1:00 pm CT on Wednesday, Nov 2.)

For sponsorship details, click the Sponsorship Information link. (And no, the doctor is not making a PowerPoint available. He refuses to submit to the enemy that is PowerPoint.)

As always, sponsorships are first come, first serve.

 

* You do not have to sign within 48 hours, just express interest. You will be granted extra time to get the paperwork done.

Why Are Fuel Prices So Volatile?

This recent article over on the Supply & Demand Chain Executive Site by Barry Hochfelder on a volatile problem does a great job of sketching out the fuel supply chain and explaining why prices will sometimes change five to ten times a day!

At a high level, this is how a fuel supply chain works.

  1. The refiner receives oil and produces gas, diesel, and petroleum fuel products.
  2. Traders then buy and sell the fuel.
  3. Fuel is moved via pipelines, barges, and tankers to supplier storage tanks.
  4. Distributors transport the fuel to retailers or consumers.

So where’s the volatility?

  1. There are buyers, sellers and intermediaries between the pipelines.
    Furthermore, there are many suppliers at different terminals in the geographic locations where pipelines terminate into bulk storage. These suppliers advertise prices at their terminals. If they see a change, they will often move prices to their advantage.
  2. Then there are contracts.
    Buyers will procure fuel based on midday close and other complex calculations.
  3. And suppliers offer multiple price feeds to try and win contracts.
    With prices that change based on time of day, contracting terms, and calculation methodologies.
  4. Taxes are constantly changing.
    There have been over 1,800 changes in tax rates at the local, state, and federal levels.

And this volatility is not going away. Time to start preparing.