Category Archives: Talent
The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part XXI: Dark Minions
In Part V and Part IX, we introduced you to Small World, a delightful game from Days of Wonder (also on iOS) that, in the words of Wil Wheaton, combines the military strategy of Risk with the delightful art and fantasy races of Cosmic Encounters. Except it’s more dynamic than Risk, more variable than Cosmic Encounters, and a good introduction to how your suppliers’ sales and marketing forces are going to try and counter, and undermine, your every effort to procure and manage supply at a fair and sustainable price (as profit is the name of their game, not cost control).
Small World, with its 14 races and 20 powers, leading to 280 different possible pairings of race and special ability, did a great job of capturing the many different types of sales professionals that will ascend upon you in the course of your day job, but it lacks a mechanism that accurately captures the hoard mentality of larger vendors with seemingly endless and disposable sales forces. Larger vendors, when they lack the ability to win on saleability alone, resort to trying to overwhelm a potential customer with a large sales team that will descend upon the potential customer on every front in an effort to overwhelm the potential customer and wear them down until they just give in and sign on the dotted line.
On the other hand, Dark Minions not only captures that hoard mentality to a tee, but effectively lets you take on the role of a Sales Director of a large vendor with undifferentiated commodity products who’s only sure method of success is to strategically send his hoard of disposable snake-oil salesmen against the most susceptible targets. In the mindset of Dark Minions, differentiated capability doesn’t matter, as the organization doesn’t have anything unique to sell, only strength in numbers. More on this later. For now, let’s introduce the game.
In Dark Minions, hordes of dark minions have descended upon the countryside, eager to secure their reputation as a scourge on mankind. The despicable evil marauders attack everywhere in search of conquest. The citizens are helpless and will soon be overwhelmed. Death and destruction awaits all those in the path of the evil ones …”
In Dark Minions, you are a great evil one and your goal is to vanquish the medieval towns in your domain. Every time you vanquish a town you gain vanquish points, and the first great evil one to a fixed number of vanquish points (which varies according to the number of great evil ones playing) wins the game.
In Dark Minions, you control an evil hoard, equal to 50 minions to start, and on each turn you can either use part of that hoard to attack a town or capture a defense tower, or you can choose to re-spawn some of your evil minions from the graveyard. When you send part of your hoard against a town or a tower, you knowingly send them to their doom. (But you are a great evil one, and minions exist to be sacrificed! Plus, since you have the power to re-animate them at a later time, their deaths have no impact on your overall power.)
Unlike most of the games we have covered in our series, Dark Minions is a dice-based game, which adds a considerable element of randomness to your strategy (which mimics nicely the apparent strategy of some sales forces), as each roll dictates what you can, and cannot, do on your turn. (This is a good analogy to the real-world where a sales organization is often limited by the number of sales resources currently available for deployment, the financial resources free to deploy them, and the organizational resources to acquire more sales resources.) At the start of the game, each player rolls three six-sided black dice (as you are evil, remember) on their turn, numbered +1, 2, … 6. If a 4, 5, or 6 (or higher) is rolled on a die, and one is available, the player may choose to commit that many minions to attack, and capture, a white, grey, or black tower (on a 4+, 5+, or 6+ respectively). When you have captured one of each tower, you can trade them in to gain a level. If a 2 or higher is rolled on a die, the player may choose to attack a town with the number of minions allowed by the die (and if the total number of minions attacking the town exceeds the strength of the town, the town falls), and if a 1+ is rolled, that is added to another die. Alternatively, you can choose on a roll of 2 to 6 to re-spawn that many minions from the graveyard. (Minions go to the graveyard when a tower or town falls.) [Each die in the 2 … 6 range is a separate hoard and cannot be combined in the conquest of an individual town or tower. Only +1, or +2 rolls can be added to another die to increase the size of a hoard.]
Gaining levels is important because, at each successive level, you get to replace 1 black dice with 1 (blood) red dice, which allows you to roll 2 to 7 instead of +1, 2 … 6. Then, once all of your black dice have been replaced with (blood) red dice, at the fifth and final level, you get to roll a bonus white die (which has +1, +2, and re-spawn 10 minion squares) every roll. So if you were to roll a 4, 5, and 6 on your first turn, and if they were available, you would likely want to attack and capture a set of (white, grey, and black) towers, and turn them in for a level. But if you rolled a 3, 5, and +1, you would likely add the +1 to the 5 to attack and capture a black tower (which is the hardest to capture) and attack a town with 3 minions. Towns will take, on average, between 15 and 25 minions to vanquish (as the game progresses), and will typically take multiple turns to collectively vanquish.
The strategy is figuring out when to attack towns versus towers and which town to attack when. The evil one who sent the most minions against the town gets the vanquish points associated with the town (which will generally be between 3 and 9 points, as the game progresses) when the town is finally overrun, the evil one with the second most minions gets 2 Vanquish Points, and the evil one who triggered the vanquish of the town (by committing the minions necessary to bring it to its tipping point) gets 1 Vanquish Point.
Additional variability is added by the fact that on any turn, you can choose to roll the white die in place of any other die. Generally speaking, you will take this gamble when you need to re-spawn minions since using this die (at levels 1 through 4) means that you will only be able to attack 2 towns and/or towers. The advantage is that a successful roll allows you to respawn 10 minions (instead of 2-7) but the disadvantage is that an unsuccessful roll simply gives you a +1 or +2 on another die (which will increase your chance of capturing a tower, assuming you have enough minions left to commit to the tower). A good roll will allow for a more effective re-spawn, a bad roll (which is twice as likely as a good roll) will dictate a weaker round. But, if you still have your two starting tokens (worth 1 and 2 VP, respectively), you can use these as re-spawn tokens (which are equivalent to a white die re-spawn roll) and if you use both of these in conjunction with a successful white die re-spawn roll, you can re-spawn all of your minions. Properly timed, you can get all 50 minions back in one turn, which can be a great boon early game (especially if you just went up a couple of levels, getting a red die edge on your competition). (The sales analogy is that instead of sending a hoard of average, run of the mill, salesman, you can send specialists, represented by the +1 and +2, who often have the ability to tip a worn down customer into a sale a little bit faster, or, in the case of the re-spawn roll, better apply your financial resources to hire even more salesmen to send towards the next unsuspecting target.)
While it won’t teach you the strategic planning skills you need to design supply strategies that will deliver value in the long term as well as the short term, as Rosenberg’s games tend to do (and, so far, we’ve covered Agricola [Parts I, II-A, and II-B], All Creatures Big and Small [I], Le Havre [Parts I and II], and The Inland Port [I]), it’s a fun distraction that will help you relax at the end of a tough day because, just once, you get to play the evil black knight salesmen instead of the white knight of procurement — and possibly learn to identify hoard mentality sales organizations fast enough to put defenses in place before your organization gets overrun.
The New Supply Chain Manager – Global and Local
Supply Chain Digital recently published an interesting piece on three core trends impacting UK supply chain skills in 2014 where they noted that, even across the Atlantic, globalization is taking a new spin.
According to the article, complex supply networks are now deployed to offset inventory risk, balancing low production costs of far away places with short-lead time replenishment from factories closer to market. This allows for an initial order to be made in the Far East and then supplemented by more local sources if sales demand. This allows the buyer to balance cost vs. lead time / stock out / quality risk and indicates that, like the US, the UK is now focussing more on total cost of ownership and optimizing the total supply chain cost and not just the landed cost (even though the transportation costs from Eastern Europe and parts of Asia are much less for them then the transportation costs their North American counterparts need to bear). It’s a good sign, and SI has always maintained that the right sourcing methodology is best-cost country sourcing, and that often means, when the full life-cycle cost (and risk) is analyzed, home-country sourcing is the way to go.
The need to be local is further emphasized by the evolving purchase patterns of the local consumer. E-commerce is being widely adopted and the Amazon effect is taking hold. Consumers want to shop at home, get the goods delivered to their homes, and if something is broken, return the goods from their homes. This is forcing retailers and distributors to adapt to complex and challenging operating models as they need to not only manage the home-delivery process but the home-return process, often getting products back to the factory from which they came for repair, refurbishment, or recycling (as strict laws in the EU, such as RoHS and WEEE, often prevent outright disposal of anything with electronic components).
Finally, it all comes together in the last trend which revolves around the need for a broader skill-set to manage the broad nature of today’s Supply Management initiatives — initiates that are hugely complex in nature and require Supply Management professionals to know how to manage suppliers, production facilities and freight movements across a multitude of countries and time-zones. It’s not easy, but it can be fun!
Top 12 Challenges Facing India in the Decades Ahead – 07 – Education and Opportunity
If you remember our last post on poverty, you will note that we said that when India is compared to the 16 countries outside of sub-saharan Africa that are poorer than it, it doesn’t do well in any social indicator, with social indicators for Education being one of those indicators. In particular, it’s literacy rate among Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Haiti, Krygyzstan, Laos, Moldova, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua, New Guinea, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Yemen ranks 9th for Males and 11th for Females (at 82.1% and 65.5%)! Not good. In comparison, the literacy rates in China (at 97.5% and 92.7%), Brazil (at 90.1% and 90.7%), and Russia (at 99.7% and 99.5%) are much higher in comparison, as are the literacy rates of most of its Asian neighbours.
But it’s educational challenges are not just limited to its literacy rate. The challenges also stem to the perception of the importance of education, especially at an early age, as a whole. In their newly published book, An Uncertain Glory, Dreze and Sen do a great job of outlining some of the significant challenges facing India in terms of education and literacy, challenges which start with the first five year plan created by the newly independent India back in 1951.
The first five year plan in 1951, even though sympathetic to the need for University education which it strongly supported, argued against regular schooling at the elementary level, favouring instead a so-called ‘basic education’ system, built on the hugely romantic and rather eccentric idea that children should lean through self-financing handcraft. It went on to say that ‘the tendency to open new primary schools should not be encouraged and, as far as possible, resources should be concentrated on basic education and the improvement and remodelling of existing primary schools on basic lines’. Other than an outright banning of education for the lower castes and Dalit, SI does not think one would find a better prescription for a return to the middle ages. (And what makes this especially sad is that India, in the 4th Century AD, more than 600 years before the first European University was founded in Bologna, had one of the first big Universities at Nalanda. This University, run by a Buddhist foundation and supported by Hindu kings, drew students from all over Asia, and, at its peak in the seventh century had over 10,000 students in its dormitories.)
But it’s not just the outlook on education that’s the problem, it’s the delivery. In a nation-wide school survey conducted by the PROBE (Public Report On Basic Education) team in 2006, only two thirds of the students were present on the day of the survey (according to the school registrars) and even fewer according to the field investigators’ direct observations. In addition, there was considerable absenteeism of teachers as well, in addition to widespread late arrival and early departure problems. Given that 12% of schools had only 1 appointed teacher at the time of the survey, any teacher absenteeism at all is a huge problem. Furthermore, on the day of the survey, 21% of the schools were operating as single teacher schools and, to make matters worse, half of the schools had no teaching activity at all at the time of the investigators’ unannounced visit! (Why? Due to the relatively high salaries accorded to appointed teachers, there is a reluctance to make appointments. In addition, appointed teachers typically have the equivalent of tenure and there is little oversight.)
Officially, there are supposed to be about 200 school days per year. But with a teacher absenteeism rate that was found to be about 20%, a pupil absenteeism rate of about 33%, the chance of both a pupil and a teacher being present on the same day is about 50%. Then there is the chronic problem of a lack of teaching activity and the fact that a given student only gets taught about half the time the student and teacher are both present on a teaching day. The net result is that the average student gets about 50 teaching days per year, or one fourth of what the student would get in a well-functioning school system!
For a considerable portion of the population, the words of Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore (1913, Literature), spoken in an interview with Izvestia in 1930, still ring true. In my view the imposing tower of misery which today rests on the heart of India has its sole foundation in the absence of education. Because, as Dreze and Sen point out in their work, in a society, particularly in the modern world, where so much depends on the written medium, being illiterate is like being imprisoned, and school education opens a door through with people can escape incarceration.
This lack of education is a big contributor to the Unemployment problem in India. (After all, how can you even apply for any meaningful work in our modern economy if you can’t even read and write?) While the official unemployment rate is 9.9% (as per a press release from the Labour Bureau of the Government of India), the problem is much, much worse than that. (How can it not be when over two thirds of your population has to survive on less than $2 US dollars a day?) Consider the recent example of SBI, the nation’s biggest bank, who in April of last year decided they wanted to recruit 1,500 employees and received over 1,700,000 applications?
While the Indian economy did create approximately 60 Million jobs between 2000 and 2005, during the forefront of the outsourcing craze, it did not create more than 2.8 Million between 2005 and 2010 (as per the Institute of Applied Manpower [IAM]). And while the loss of jobs in the agricultural sector was absorbed in the construction sector, the IAM estimates that 5 Million construction jobs were lost between 2005 and 2010. In addition, 93% of the Indian workforce is interim or informal and receive no health insurance, retirement pension, or basic benefits. As a result, the real unemployment statistic is estimated by experts (Source: WorldCrunch) to be around 20% and doesn’t include the interim or informal workers, especially in rural areas or employed in season sectors, who are underemployed.
And the problem is likely to get even worse. The population in India is still increasing, and in order to maintain the current levels of employment, India needs to add about one million jobs a month, but only managed to add about 50,000 a month between 2005 and 2010, one twentieth of the required number! An educated population could at least try to seek work elsewhere, or, like the services sector, compete to bring more work in. An uneducated population, on the other hand … well, ask South Sudan, Afghanistan, or Niger how an utter lack of literacy is working out for them! (Or even Belize, Bangladesh, or Syria — with slightly higher literacy rates, but still quite low with respect to the developed world.)
Supply Chain 2020 – What Will It Take to Get There?
I’ve been noticing an uptick in Supply Chain 2020 discussion and blogging lately, despite the fact that 2020 is only 7 years away. Why do I say only? While 2020 may be 28 years away in ‘Net Time, given the pace at which the average Supply Management Organization moves, that’s breakneck speed! (It shouldn’t be, but it is. That’s why, despite the fact that it’s 2013 and e-Invoicing is old enough to drink, approximately 90% of invoices are still paper-based.) Furthermore, most prognosticators want to make predictions that are far enough away that either their prediction will almost guaranteed to be a reality by that time or everyone will have forgotten completely about their prediction by then. (Given the rate of increase in ADD/ADHD in recent years, that might be long enough for all of us to have forgotten everything from today, but I’d like to think that some of us may still have a long-term focus, and a longer-term memory, in 2020.)
A lot of these discussions are focussing on what the Supply Chain is going to look like in 2020, what technologies are going to drive it, and how the Supply Chain is going to run. These discussions are interesting, because we all want to know what tomorrow is going to look like today, but it’s not 2020 — it’s 2013. And whatever vision you have of 2020 is not going to become a reality without a plan to get there. That plan will, of course, depend on your vision and your end goal, but regardless of the plan you choose, there are three elements that will be required to get there.
What are these three elements? The Three Ts of Strategic Supply Management, of course!
- Talent
- Technology
- Transition
No innovation, or renovation, will succeed without these 3T’s, and an alignment thereof.
Despite the need for transportation, Supply Chains don’t run on trucks and trains — they run on Talent. Talented people identify potential suppliers. Talented people run strategic sourcing events. Talented people negotiate and execute contracts. Talented people collaborate with supplier personnel to ensure quality, on-time delivery, and quick issue resolution. Talented people deliver to Sales and Marketing what the consumers want.
And what do these talented people use to accomplish their tasks? Technology. Real-time communication with suppliers around the globe requires modern technology. Value-generating strategic sourcing events require good strategic sourcing technology. Contract generation, management, and supplier performance management requires good collaboration technology. And the list of technological needs goes on.
However, the technology that is required, for most organizations, is not the technology that the organization currently has. In order to acquire and implement this technology, the organization will have to transition appropriately. This will involve mapping current processes, mapping desired processes, identifying technologies that can appropriately support the desired processes, and putting together a transition plan, that takes into account the needs (but not necessarily the wants) of all of the stakeholders and that is supported by the appropriate executive(s) in the C-Suite, that will get the organization there.
So if you want to get to 2020 in style, first get to 2014 in-style and focus on the 3Ts. This is one best-practice that is year-independent.
