Category Archives: AI

AI That Makes Recommendations Makes You Dumber, NOT Smarter!

Still too many posts about how great (Gen) AI is (in the age of LLMs).

They tell you truths:

AI can process all of your spend in seconds and find anomalies.

AI can collect all of the relevant market data and find opportunities.

AI can review large amounts of text and find risks or unfairly onerous contract clauses.

AI can track your SaaS utilization and ensure you are not being overcharged.

Yada Yada Yada.

All true, all fine.

But then the blasphemy starts. (Where I’m using the word in the context of the profane for the humanity bashing that it is.)

AI is great because it can recommend the spend “opportunities” you should pursue … and even automatically generate sourcing events for you.

AI can find the lowest cost when you need to spot buy and automatically buy/cut and send the PO for you.

AI can tell you what clauses to take out, what clauses to edit, and what clauses to add and automatically suggest the edits and write the new clauses for you.

AI can automatically enable and disable user accounts/seats, compute capability, application instances, etc. and save you money.

Now, theoretically, it can do all this. But practically, when it does so, it costs you money, capability, and you humanity.

When it selects opportunities, generates an event, and selects suppliers, it does so on a cost and historical utilization basis, with vacuum forecasts and whatever specs it can find. It doesn’t look at associated logistics costs, lead times, quality levels, service costs, certifications, safety, or anything else that is critical. You teach it cost, the metrics dictate that the CFO only cares about what shows up in the P&L, and you get the lowest cost piece of cr@p on the market. No big deal until customers get so fed up they start leaving, unless, of course it was the bolt holding the axels together on the bus that regularly drives the cliffs of the local mountain range or the door on the Jet you cram hundreds of passengers into.

When it selects the lowest price, there’s no guarantee the product will arrive on time or meet all of your requirements (because you just specified the cheapest card stock, but didn’t specify white and got pretty pink; 32 GB DDR chips, but didn’t specify they were for laptop upgrades and got server RAM; specified DBA, but didn’t specify Oracle and got someone who’s only ever used SQL Server).

When you tell it to slash your SaaS and Cloud costs, it happily deletes all the C-Suite accounts because they only log in once a month, cancels your vulnerability scanning service, because that costs way too much for something that happens only monthly, and deletes your main production database (because it cost way more than the QA database). And yes, plenty of news stories where it has already done all this.

When it scans the 60 page contract behemoth from the supplier, it overlooks the clause that transfers all liability to you for their AI failures (because you deployed the product) because you trained it on contracts where you transfer all liability of use of the equipment you create to your customers (because they use the product and accept not to use it beyond your specifications). Then when the AI accuses your best supplier of submitting fraudulent invoices, automatically files a report with the bank, which in turn freezes the suppliers accounts, which blocks all automated payments, which results in their energy supply being turned off for non-payment, which brings down their production line, which costs the supplier 2 million dollars, which results in them suing you … guess who’s on the hook when the court says “you can’t say the AI is responsible”?

But that’s just the direct costs.

The indirect cost is that it’s making you stupid.

The problem is this. Most of the time,

  • the opportunities will be real, not the most significant, but real, and the recommendations will be “good enough” that an average human won’t feel it worth the effort to qualify and/or improve
  • 80% of tail is usually well-defined cookie-cutter finished products/basket services and there will be enough description in the catalog/e-Pro system for the AI to get it “good enough” that the org can make it work
  • the security settings and “manual overrides” will usually prevent exec accounts and production instances from being deleted, and its ITs job to deal with the odd glitch, so who really cares
  • the missed risk won’t materialize in 95% of contracts, and usually not in the first 6 months

So people quickly stop questioning, start trusting, and then start blindly depending on it. The systems are allowed to do whatever they want as long as they aren’t creating fires worse than what the humans are already dealing with. And even as performance degrades, requirements change, or system costs escalates, nothing is checked, and as slightly worse decisions are constantly reinforced and bad data piles up, the organization is sitting on a ticking time bomb. Which is going to go off. The only question is how much damage it is going to do.

Which you won’t be able to deal with when it does go off because you won’t have a clue what to do.

Every time you fail to question it, your cognitive skills atrophy.

Every time you fail to use a skill, your expertise dissipates.

Every time you fail to put the effort in, your problem solving stamina degrades.

Every time you fail to think about the situation, your knowledge erodes and you forget.

When they say your mind is a muscle, they’re not exaggerating. Bodybuilders don’t work out every day just to build, they do it because it’s a basic requirement to maintain what they have so their muscles don’t atrophy and their hard work dissipate.

The brain works the same way, when you don’t use it, it atrophies.

Numerous studies have shown what happens when you use AI even for the simplest of tasks. Even typing vs hand writing reduces brain power. Using it to edit reduces more. Using it to write reduces more. (15% or more — you’re effectively shaving 15 points off your IQ!) Using it for strategy gets to the point where you might as well be boarding the short bus and taking the remedial class, because in a matter of months you’ll have trouble keeping up with that!

So, the more AI you use, the dumber you get.

And that’s great?

Maybe if you’re a malevolent billionaire trying to dumb down humanity to the point that they are too stupid to question your true intentions, but otherwise …

AI Hasn’t Changed The Fundamentals Of Analysis — It’s Reinforced The Needs For It

AI is Not AI … And AI-Related Tech is Not Created Equal

Joël Collin-Demers recently made a post that correctly stated that real “AI solutions” tell you exactly what they do, in which sequence, and [help you] understand how it solves your exact problem. the doctor totally agrees. Otherwise, they are using buzzwords and trying to cash in on the hype to sell you old-school automation at best, or third party (Gen-AI LLM) wrappers at worst, and don’t have any real AI.

He covered ten different types of technology and attempted to capture the positives, the negatives, and the best uses therefore in source-to-pay. For a relative non-techie (compared to the doctor with a PhD, degrees in CS and Mathematics, and actual experience implementing everything but BS LLMs from scratch), he got a lot right. But he got a few things wrong. As a result, there was a need to correct him (in this post) and ensure the corrections have as much permanence as the original post.

We do recommend you read his original post, but for each tech addressed, integrate the correction below.

RPA – does not “break” when processes change; it breaks when you feed it bad data; when you change processes, it simply loses its usefulness until you change it to match the process — with a good RPA system, that shouldn’t be hard

Machine Learning – requiring clean data is NOT a bad thing; it ensures the algorithm “learns” the patterns you need it to learn to use it effectively

Natural Language Processing – doesn’t struggle with jargon, just context — you define the dictionaries, the grammar, the language — it’s accuracy boils down to that; if you are feeding in documents that use the same words/phrases in multiple contexts, it will always struggle with that to a point

Predictive Analytics – in lay terms, classical predictive analytics is essentially just multi-dimensional curve fitting based on the data available — when something has not been modelled, there is nothing the algorithm can learn to fit against — but to be fair, nothing you’ve listed will succeed with unprecedented events/data

Anomaly Detection – this is based on outlier detection, and well trained outlier detection does NOT have high false positive rates (which are no higher than false negatives), and any “wrong” classifications from a business perspective simply means that the definition of a valid transactions needs to be amended to reduce the “outliers”

Computer Vision – lighting is not as much of a problem as you think as most good algorithmic interpretations will always mathematically adjust the brightness and contrast to a consistent range in pre-processing, and sometimes even greyscale; angles are a problem, because if they can’t be determined, the right transform can’t be applied to appropriately orient the image to maximize identification likelihood

Optimization Algorithms – “requires precise problem definition” is not a bad thing, it’s a good thing — if you don’t have a precise problem definition, you cannot get a precise answer with any technique; one of the best uses is product mix, not just supplier portfolio

LLMs – not “can” hallucinate false info; “will” hallucinate false into — every single time, just a question of the degree; it’s “generative” AI which literally means it makes stuff up, and how accurate what it makes up is with respect to your problem depends on how it was trained, what was asked of it, and how you ask it … very unreliable all around

Pattern Based Recommendations – the whole point is to “filter” to what you would normally buy so that you don’t have to sort through everything, that’s not a problem

Reinforcement Learning – it does not require extensive time, it requires extensive data — computers process mathematical calculations billions of time faster than we do — it’s never time anymore!

AI Doesn’t Help You Get The Most From Your Spend Analysis System

Twenty years ago we wrote a post on how to get the most from your spend analysis system, and the reality is that not much has changed. In fact, AI has only cemented the need for the foundations.

Twenty years ago, we essentially told you the keys were to:

  • streamline the tactical
  • focus on strategic analysis that always delivers

And those haven’t changed. Because:

1. With AI overloading you, you need to verify, or dismiss as fast as possible, which means tactical should be quick, easy, and effective.
2. With AI vendors claiming they can replace you, it’s critical to start with analyses that deliver results to prove the power of manual analysis.

We’ll review the tactical capabilities that are still super relevant and the strategic capabilities you should always keep in mind.

Your tactical skills with respect to the following should be best-in-class with leading peers:

  • (sub) cube creation off of the primary cube (using inheritance)
  • re-classification, derived dimension creation, and view modification
  • baseline and compound view-based report creation
  • direct integration with the contract repository, supplier management system, and external data feeds
  • automated maverick spend and override approvals

Your strategic skills with respect to the following should be second nature:

  • overspend calculation on “best price” agreements against market prices offered by the vendor through other channels
  • purchase order vs invoice vs payment analysis for overpayment recapture
  • outlier analysis tuned to (potential) fraud identification (both internal and external)
  • loss prevention (repair vs. replace analysis, keep vs. return analysis, price reduction vs. charity donation for write off analysis, etc.)
  • compliance analysis (right products/services being used, payment terms being adhered to, etc.)

But, most importantly, your perception skills need to be top notch. When the AI spits out an opportunity, you need to:

  • identify precisely not only what the AI thinks the opportunity is, but how you would verify it, and if the opportunity is real, capture it; but if not, disprove it quickly
  • when the opportunity turns out to be false, identify the direction the AI was heading, what the AI got wrong, how to identify such errors instantaneously in the future, and what direction to give to the AI handlers to stop wasting your time with obvious garbage
  • how to identify the gaps in what the AI analyzes to find opportunities even faster than the cognitive atrophied team driving the AI

While the AI can kick off the tactical, and support some of the strategic, it should be clear that it falls short in all three categories, and doesn’t even scratch the surface where real perception is required.

AI Doesn’t Change the Fundamentals of Spend Analysis

Twenty years ago, we wrote a post that said, so you want to do spend analysis?

And in that post, we noted that you want to get on with it, but you’re not sure where, or how, to start. So we provided you with a step-by-step process you can use to get your spend analysis effort under way and keep more of those corporate dollars in the corporate coffers, where they belong. And, after 20 years, the steps remain, more or less, the same. Because the song hasn’t changed. Only the noise by those trying to sell you fancy tools (that don’t work) has gotten louder in their attempts to drown the song out.

1. Locate Your Data

You need to identify where all of the source data is. Not the data warehouse or data lake you’re pointed at or someone’s random, monthly data dump, but the source data. That’s because it’s not likely that all of the data you need will be in the warehouse, lake, or dump because that likely consists just of the ERP or AP system, and we know that no single system contains all the data you need. Spend will be split between the ERP, AP, and T&E. Supplier information in the ERP, SXM, and Risk Management Systems. Contracts, and key data, in the CLM and Legal Systems. And so on.

Make sure you know where all the source data you need is, what warehouses and lakes it is pushed to, on what schedule, and which of these you can use. If you can work with system owners to get the missing data pushed to central locations, or if you will need to retrieve it directly.

2. Create a starting taxonomy

You can’t integrate the data otherwise. As long as the taxonomy integrates and federates all of the data, it will be sufficient. Remember that a modern spend analysis system supports multiple cubes, with inheritance, that each cube can have its own hierarchy, and that cubes and sub-cubes can be created on the fly.

3. Centralized the Data

Centralize the data into a single (virtual) starting cube that everything can work off of. Do this by defining the master transaction records, absorb all of the related information, and build the initial (virtual) cube(s) that every (derived) cube will work off of. (By virtual, we mean that the system can pull data on demand as needed with predefined definitions, it doesn’t have to be stored in a single cube in a single warehouse or lake.)

4. Family the Data

In just about any ERP or enterprise system, there are multiple entries for every supplier, product, or other entity. Make sure these are familied into one instance in the master data set.

5. Map the Data

As the data gets pulled in, map to the starting taxonomy so that the data is ready for use.

6. Pick the Low Hanging Fruit

Always start with the easy opportunities — today those might be the highest ranked opportunities spit out by the AI, the ones from the “start here” guide (supplier rationalization, bypass spend identification, growing, off-contract, categories, etc.). A few quick wins will build up support for a real, manual, spend analysis effort — which is where the real results will come from.

7. Make sure you get the right tool!

Remember, the tool, which should have all of the features defined in our previous entry in this series, must be one that gives you the agility, speed, and power you need to apply your intelligence to the problem at hand.

8. Get a good consulting mentor

You want someone to teach you not only how to do spend analysis, but how to approach and even think about spend analysis so that you can translate your instincts into analysis with quick, pinpoint, accuracy and answer your queries faster and better than any AI ever could. That’s not your run of the mill consultant who just executes the standard slate of analysis and applies the AI tools in their stables, that’s a real analyst who understands what analysis truly is and is willing to teach you. They are few and far between, and may not come cheap due to high demand, but once you learn, you won’t need them anymore. And what you spend up front will be insignificant with respect to the opportunities real analysis can uncover.