Category Archives: Manufacturing

It’s Not Just About Cost!

Editor’s Note: Today’s guest post is from Dick Locke. Dick, who has delivered seminars to over 100 companies across the globe, is a seasoned expert on International Sourcing and Procurement who wrote the book. (See his archived posts.)

Last week, I bought two home items at Costco. One was a Chinese-assembled and branded 42 inch very thin LED-lit TV for $300. The other was a U.S. made foam mattress for $500. Guess which one had an obvious manufacturing defect and had to be returned and which one worked perfectly right out of the box? The simple product from the US or the complex product from China?

Anyone? Anyone?

It was the U.S. built mattress (and it was so much fun to get it picked up and replaced).

Products aren’t going to come back to the US from anywhere unless our factories not only compete in landed price but have better quality than other countries’ products have.

While China doesn’t have the greatest reputation for quality in some of its products, its electronics (and I’m sure other products) are generally excellent. I’m convinced that quality levels are more a function of the purchasing techniques that buying companies use and less on the country of manufacture.


Thanks, Dick! (Global Supply Training)

Will You Need to Ship Same Day?

Amazon is renting locker storage in physical storage locations across the country and dramatically broadening its DC footprint so that it can launch a same-day delivery service. Wal-mart Stores and e-Bay are testing same day delivery in multiple locations. And now the cash-strapped USPS is turning to same-day delivery. So are you going to have to ship same-day?

If you’re a retailer that makes money on impulse purchases, most likely (or lose a chunk of your market share). So what about if you’re a manufacturer that supplies a retailer that does same day delivery? Probably not, but it’s quite likely that you are going to have to ship more often and deal with less lead-times.

If a retailer is shipping same day, it is going to need to not only be updating its inventory daily, but it’s inventory turn-over projections daily, and (re)ordering as soon as it detects that waiting longer will risk a stock-out given the minimum lead-time required by the manufacturer. At some point, it’s going to be ordering too often, shipment volumes are going to be too low, and it’s going to need to re-adjust it’s ordering strategy to keep costs down. So it’s going to adjust it’s algorithms to calculate with respect to a specific, regular, order day, and then realize it needs to order early. Then it’s going to realize that inventory levels for some items will need to be relatively high due to long lead times. And it’s going to ask you to reduce your minimum lead times and distribution efficiency so that it can optimize it’s re-order times and respond to unplanned demand surges in the supply chain.

Net effect: you’re probably not going to have to ship same day as a manufacturer, but you’re going to be asked to reduce your lead times and increase your distribution efficiency.

Anyone disagree?

If America is Going to Be Number One Oil Producer By 2020, Will Canada Be Number Two?

According to this recent Economist Article on Energy to Spare, America is on track to produce all the energy it needs at home. Considering that Americans burn three and a half times as much energy as the average Chinese person, and hasn’t been able to meet its energy needs in over half a century, this seems like a tall order. Especially since, demand has more than doubled since America was last able to satisfy its energy needs from domestic sources.

However, the International Energy Agency is forecasting that America could become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, when it could be churning out 11.1 Million barrels a day, and be energy self-sufficient by 2035. Coupled with the fact that demand is waning due to increased fuel efficiency, the prediction is that rising production and falling demand will equal out in 2035.

It’s an interesting prediction, but so is the prediction about the Athabasca Oil Sands north of the American border. Right now, production is about 1.3M barrels per day, but estimates are that production can get to 5.1M barrels per day. As per this article in the Economist, on The Sands of Grime, Canada’s oil sands contain over 170 Billion Barrels of oil that can be recovered economically with today’s technology. With the third largest proven oil reserves in the world, it’s quite likely that production can ramp up to make Canada at least fourth in oil production by 2020, with third place a strong possibility. Right now, Venezuelan production for 2020 is estimated at 6.5M barrels per day and Saudi Arabia, at close to 10M barrels per day, expects it can get to 11 M barrels per day (Source). With the difference between Canadian production estimates and Venezuelan production estimates for 2020 less than 30%, it would only take a 15% increase in Canadian production and a 15% decrease in Venezuelan production for Canada to edge in third.

Unless Saudi Arabian reserves are less than estimated, or Canadian production ramps up exponentially beyond expectations, we probably won’t make number two, but number three is a strong possibility.

The Real Reason We’re Losing Manufacturing Jobs (in North America)?

Because the Chinese are taking them? No.

Because we’re not subsidizing them? No.

Because, as pointed out by Mitch Free of MFG.com in a great article in Forbes this summer, we’re not exporting.

Instead of using North American know-how to build great products and sell them to other countries and optimizing the value generation chain, we’re optimizing the cost saving supply chain to instead import great products from other countries. Now, in some cases it makes sense when these products can be produced cheaper and in greater quantities than they can be produced in the US, especially when those products are going to be sold around the world, but I’m still not sure it makes sense in all cases. Especially for custom made products or high-end manufacturing or medical devices which are high value and require very high-end expertise that we possess a lot of in this country.

And while some North American companies have figured this out, and are doing a great job of selling product abroad (like Apple and Caterpillar), they are few and far between and all large companies. As Mitch says, the key to (North) American Manufacturing success is for small and mid-size manufacturers to get into the exporting game and sell their products outside of North America. There are less than 460 Million people in North America. That’s less than 6.6% of global population. And with large middle classes emerging in China and India, where 2.585 Million people live, North America is quickly becoming a (very) small portion of the global market for whatever product you are making.

So why aren’t we exporting? Because, as Mitch says, we have been spoiled by our home business market of more than 300 million people who speak the same language, largely embrace the same culture, abide by the same laws, use the same currency and have freedom of movement and disposable income. In the past, our market has been so robust that you did not need to sell abroad in order to have a great business and live a comfortable lifestyle. But this isn’t the case anymore. Now, we have a lot of work and learning to do in order to catch up with our global competitors whose small- and medium-sized businesses are already skilled exporters. They understand and appreciate different cultures, speak multiple languages and are good at adapting to the markets they are selling in. Because, for the most part, they had no choice. For example, Germany only has 81 Million people. It couldn’t build great, now globally recognized, brands if it just tried to build for it’s home market. And the UK and France only have 62 Million and 65 Million respectively.

We’re losing jobs because we aren’t exporting. But there’s no reason we shouldn’t be. We are among the most productive and technologically advanced countries in the world. We can compete with anyone; we just need to learn to export. And it shouldn’t be hard. We’re already masters at importing with some of the most advanced supply chains in the world. We just have to point them the in the other direction now and then.

Should Manufacturing Jobs Be ‘Re-Shored’ to the U.S.?

Yes. No. Maybe.

A recent article over on the Knowledge @ Wharton site that questions if manufacturing jobs should be ‘re-shored’ to the U.S. points out that the Boston Consulting Group forecasts that 2 Million to 3 Million manufacturing jobs will come back to the U.S. because of the fundamental shift in economics between China and the United States. While the projected shift will increase U.S. economic growth by about $100 Billion, let’s not get too excited. First of all, this is less than 1% of current GDP. Secondly, if the right jobs aren’t brought back for the right reasons, they’ll just shift again next decade.

Before we dive into this discussion, let’s summarize some key statistics from the article. Namely:

  • it is projected that the wage differential will drop from the 22X it was in 2000 to 4X in 2015, not adjusted for productivity
  • many global manufacturers have begun to move their outsourcing to even lower cost countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Cambodia
  • outsourcing costs include higher transportation/logistics costs, extra inventory costs, and quality control costs
  • improved lean manufacturing processes can often cut production-times per unit considerably, up to 65% in one instance at GE
  • more than 60% of the cost of manufactured goods can be attributed to goods and services that the average firm buys from its suppliers

When you consider these points, it becomes clear that:

  • if the primary reason for outsourcing to China was labour savings, this is no longer a good reason; in some districts, the wage savings are less than 40%!
  • the wage game requires a constant move, often into unknown, or dangerous territory (as Africa will be next)
  • there are ‘hidden’ costs as transportation costs are rising, inventory carry costs can explode if demand patterns shift, and quality control costs are exponentially higher as the only sure way to ensure quality is to get feet on the ground … regularly
  • innovation and creativity can slash the relative cost of manufacturing at home if productivity is doubled (or tripled)
  • the production costs will probably be less than the procurement costs for the raw materials, components, and services — which means cost reduction is more reliant on Procurement efficiencies and successes than manufacturing, as it should be

This means that:

  • you should never outsource on a wage analysis alone, but it doesn’t necessarily mean you should pull back to the U.S. — sometimes near-sourcing, to Mexico for instance, is the right solution
  • you shouldn’t play the wage game unless you are planning two moves ahead
  • bulky items, items that can experience unpredictable demand spikes, and items that require a lot of quality control are typically not good options for outsourcing
  • you should never underestimate the potential of talent — and what can be accomplished with the right incentive
  • decisions should be made from a true TCO perspective, not just a manufacturing perspective

And when you start looking at the overall picture, the overall product lifecycle, and the strengths and weaknesses of outsourced manufacturing partners, you’ll realize that some manufacturing, even with the disappearing wage differential, should be left in China; some should be brought back home yesterday; and some should be near-sourced. For example, you can’t build a FoxConn in the U.S. China is dominant in many areas of electronic manufacturing now and will stay that way — and considering the density of phones, tablets, and laptops, it makes sense to produce them in China. On the other hand, major appliances and automobiles should be produced at home, where efficiencies in production and greatly reduced transportation costs more than make up for the labour differential. And major appliance and automotive sub-assemblies should probably be produced in Mexico, where they have idle factories, and from where shipping costs are relatively minimal.