If you’ve been following along, you probably know that what pushed the doctor over the edge and forced him back to the keyboard sooner than he expected was all of the Artificial Indirection, Artificial Idiocy & Automated Incompetence that has been multiplying faster than Fibonacci’s rabbits in vendor press releases, marketing advertisements, capability claims, and even core product features on the vendor websites.
Generative AI and CHATGPT top the list of Artificial Indirection because these are algorithms that may, or may not, be useful with respect to anything the buyer will be using the solution for. Why?
Generative AI is simply a fancy term for using (deep) neural networks to identify patterns and structures within data to generate new, and supposedly original, content by pseudo-randomly producing content that is mathematically, or statistically, a close “match” to the input content. To be more precise, there are two (deep) neural networks at play — one that is configured to output content that is believed to be similar to the input content and a second network that is configured to simply determine the degree of similarity to the input content. And, depending on the application, there may be a post-processor algorithm that takes the output and tweaks it as minimal as possible to make sure it conforms to certain rules, as well as a pre-processor that formats or fingerprints the input for feeding into the generator network.
In other words, you feed it a set of musical compositions in a well-defined, preferably narrow, genre and the software will discern general melodies, harmonies, rhythms, beats, timbres, tempos, and transitions and then it will generate a composition using those melodies, harmonies, rhythms, beats, timbres, tempos, transitions and pseudo-randomization that, theoretically, could have been composed by someone who composes that type of music.
Or, you feed it a set of stories in a genre that follow the same 12-stage heroic story arc, and it will generate a similar story (given a wider database of names, places, objects, and worlds). And, if you take it into our realm, you feed it a set of contracts similar to the one you want for the category you just awarded and it will generate a usable contract for you. It Might Happen. Yaah. And monkeys might fly out of my butt!
CHATGPT is a very large multi-modal model that uses deep learning that accepts image and text as inputs and produces outputs expected to be inline with what the top 10% of experts would produce in the categories it is trained for. Deep learning is just another word for a multi-level neural network with massive interconnection between the nodes in connecting layers. (In other words, a traditional neural network may only have 3 levels for processing with nodes only connected to 2 or 3 nearest neighbours on the next level while a deep learning network will have connections to more near neighbors and at least one more level [for initial feature extraction] than a traditional neural network that would have been used in the past.)
How large? Large enough to support approximately 100 Trillion parameters. Large enough to be incomprehensible in size. But not in capability, no matter how good its advocates proclaim it to be. Yes, it can theoretically support as many parameters as the human brain has synapses, but it’s still computing its answers using very simplistic algorithms and learned probabilities, neither of which may be right (in addition to a lack of understanding as to whether or not the inputs we are providing are the right ones). And yes it’s language comprehension is better as the new models realize that what comes after a keyword can be as important, or more, than what came before (as not all grammars, slang, or tones are equal), but the probability of even a ridiculously large algorithm interpreting meaning (without tone, inflection, look, and other no verbal cues when someone is being sarcastic, witty, or argumentative, for example) is still considerably less than a human.
It’s supposed to be able to provide you an answer to any query for which an answer can be provided, but can it? Well, if it interprets your question properly and the answer exists, or a close enough answer exists and enough rules for altering that answer to the answer that you need exists, then yes. Otherwise, no. And yes, over time, it can get better and better … until it screws up entirely and when you don’t know the answer to begin with, how will you know the 5 times in a hundred it’s wrong and which one of those 5 times its so wrong that if you act on it, you are putting yourself, or your organization, in great jeopardy?
And its now being touted as the natural language assistant that can not only answer all your questions on organizational operations and performance but even give you guidance on future planning. I’d have to say … a sphincter says what?
Now, I’m not saying properly applied these Augmented Intelligence tools aren’t useful. They are. And I’m not saying they can’t greatly increase your efficiency. They can. Or that appropriately selected ML/PA techniques can’t improve your automation. They most certainly can.
What I am saying are these are NOT the magic beans the marketers say they are, NOT the giant beanstalk gateway to the sky castle, and definitely NOT the goose that lays the golden egg!
And, to be honest, the emphasis on this pablum, probabilistic, and purposeless third party tech is not only foolish (because a vendor should be selling their solid, specialty built, solution for your supply chain situation) but insulting. By putting this first and foremost in their marketing they’re not only saying they are not smart enough to design a good solution using expert understanding of the problem and an appropriate technological solution but that they think you are stupid enough to fall for their marketing and buy their solution anyway!
Versus just using the tech where it fits, and making sure it’s ONLY used where it fits. For example, how Zivio is using #ChatGPT to draft a statement of work only after gathering all the required information and similar Statements of Work to feed into #ChatGPT, and then it makes the user review, and edit as necessary, knowing that while the #ChatGPT solution can generate something close with enough information and enough to work with, every project is different and an algorithm never has all the data and what is therefore produced will never be perfect. (Sometimes close enough that you can circulate it is a draft, or even post it for a general purpose support role, but not for any need that is highly specific, which is usually the type of need an organization goes to market for.)
Another example would be using #ChatGPT as your Natural Language Interface to provide answers on performance, projects, past behaviour, best practices, expert suggestions, etc. instead of having the users go through 4+ levels of menus, designing complex reports/views and multiple filters, etc. … but building in logic to detect when a user is asking a question on data versus asking for a prediction on data vs. asking for a decision instead of making one themself … and NOT providing an answer to the last one, or at least not a direct answer. For example, how many units of our xTab did we sell last year is a question on data the platform should serve up quickly. How many units do we forecast to sell in the next 12 months is a question on prediction the platform should be able to derive an answer for using all the data available and the most appropriate forecasting model for the category, product, and current market conditions. How many units should I order is asking the tool to make a decision for the human so either the tool should detect it is being asked to make a decision where it doesn’t have the intelligence or perfect information to do and respond with I’m not programmed to make business decisions or return an answer that the current forecast for the next quarter’s demand for xTab for which we will need stock is 200K units, typically delivery times are 78 days, and based on this, the practice is to order one quarter’s units at a time. The buyer may not question the software and blindly place the order, but the buyer still has to make the decision to do that.
And no third party AI is going to blindly come up with the best recommendation as it has to know the category specifics, what forecasting algorithms are generally used, why, the typical delivery times, the organization’s preferred inventory levels and safety stock, and the best practices the organization should be employing.
AI is simply a tool that provides you with a possible (and often probable, but never certain) answer when you haven’t yet figured out a better one, and no AI model will ever beat the best human designed algorithm on the best data set for that algorithm.
At the end of the day, all these AI algorithms are doing is learning a) how to classify the data and then b) what the best model is to use on that data. This is why the best forecasting algorithms are still the classical ones developed 50 years ago, as all the best techniques do is get better and better and selecting the data for those algorithms and tuning the parameters of the classical model, and why a well designed, deterministic, algorithm by an intelligent human can always beat an ill designed one by an AI. (Although, with the sheer power of today’s machines, we may soon reach the point where we reverse engineer what the AI did to create that best algorithm versus spending years of research going down the wrong paths when massive, dumb, computation can do all that grunt work for us and get us close to the right answer faster).