Category Archives: Global Trade

Sixty Nine Years Ago Today …

GATT was created. Originally signed by 23 nations in Geneva on October 30, 1947, it was the foundation for global trade until January 1, 1995 when the WTO was formally established (after being agreed to by 123 nations in Marrakesh on April 14, 1994). GATT was important not just because it created critical multi-lateral agreements, but because it offered a substantial reduction of tariffs and other trade barriers for its member countries, with average tariff levels for major GATT participants of only 22%. This might sound high as a tax rate, but when you consider some acts can see tariffs as high as 100% or 200% (to prevent market flooding with foreign goods), this is very advantageous. And these levels dropped over time. By 1967, average tariff levels were 15%, and by 1993, two years before the creation of the WTO, average tariff levels were 5%.

Any comments, LOLCat?

Navegador Nightmares? It’s Your Own Damn Fault!

In the midst of the recent receivership of Hanjin shipping, the seventh largest shipping line by overall capacity, there are a lot of trepidations, fears, and worries by companies that use it for shipping, and in particular, companies that already have cargo on its ships. (As noted by Bob Ferrari over on Supply Chain Matters in The Financial Shot Heard Across the Globe, many global ports will not accept nor export cargo on the carrier’s vessels because of uncertainties as to whom we pay charges or more importantly, whether specific vessels will be seized by creditors as captured assets, meaning that not only can vessels on the water not be loaded, but they can’t be unloaded.)

Now, if you happen to be working in one of the organizations relying on this carrier, directly or indirectly, you’re probably screaming “how did they let this happen” (where “they” is, in your mind, poor management) and “what the hell do I do now” (and the answer is easy, what you should have done in the first place, and we’ll get to that) and that would be fine, if you were focussed on the right “they” and were simply choosing among your different (pre-planned) disaster recovery options, but chances are it’s the wrong “they” you are focussed on and, as the organization never allowed Supply Management the time to do proper risk assessments and disaster recovery plans, there are no backup plans ready to go.

The short answer is unless you are including yourself in the “they”, as the “they” is all of the Procurement and Logistics managers who not only selected the carrier but encouraged the excessive growth, and unless you are acknowledging that your lack of a disaster recovery plan for this very predictable likelihood (as it’s easy to identify a supply chain choke point and what could go wrong – in this case, all your products in containers on the same ship and that ship all of a sudden going missing, and whether it sinks, gets captured by pirates, or seized by creditors is irrelevant from a recovery point of view), you’re not focussed on the right questions, what you should do about it, and what you should have done in the first place.

Maybe you had little option (as you were shipping from Korea and this was the only reasonable shipping deal you, or your 3PL, could cut), but you could still plan on a lost shipment, have a supplier with excess capacity (in overtime if necessary) that could replace the shipment quick, and a back-up (more expensive carrier) ready to activate if needed (along a different route). This would be okay and proper, especially if you really did need to outsource to Asia, but how many companies did it okay and proper? Judging by the number of articles and semi-widespread panic (and fears of more receiverships and bankruptcies because of the over-capacity, not too many).

But chances are you got yourself into the situation where you had little option, by far-sourcing something you didn’t need to far-source. You got caught up in the outsourcing craze in the 90’s, believed all the hype about lower costs (because of lower unit costs due to weaker Asian currencies, lower wages, etc.), and didn’t look at the full TCO, which also included transportation costs that could be 10X what you were paying when you were near-sourcing from Central America (from the US), skyrocketing T&E costs (because if you didn’t go on-site regularly, you didn’t get what you wanted), and phone-bills that looked like office building lease payments. And maybe if you were in electronics China and Korea had the better factories, but how hard would it have been to invest in new factories in Mexico and Brazil, relocate the necessary top-talent to get them going, and recoup the initial investment in orders of magnitude over a ten to twenty year time-span? Not hard.

Basically, by outsourcing everything you could identify faster than rabbits without any natural enemies can breed, you built up a need for a lot of capacity, which the industry responded to, but when you kept going, the shipping industry, not wanting to get caught with its pants down again, analyzed the trends and kept building. Then, when oil went through the roof, and the smarter companies realized that long-term strategic near-sourcing (and, when possible, home-sourcing) was actually the best option after all was said and done, and pulled back, there was glut capacity and the shippers, who overbuilt, were now stuck with capacity, overhead, and loans they couldn’t pay. This is all a result of poor long term planning on the part of Procurement, and your predecessors, which, in all honesty, you should have been endeavouring to fix as each and every outsourced category came up for re-sourcing (as you should only produce products in Asia for Asia if you can help it — even FoxConn has realized this and opened a Brazilian factory — slow ramp-up not withstanding).

So, whether you created the mess or not, you’re in the job now and it’s up to you to fix it, and the navegador nightmares, the doctor is sad to say, are your own.

With Currencies Crazy, Is It Time to Return to Barter?

This is more of a question / thought experiment than anything else, but it’s a good question.

Brexit has thrown the British pound into chaos again. (Nothing new, it’s happened before, it will stabilize eventually, but it will happen again.)

Canadian and Australian dollars have recently made substantial declines from highs that put the dollars almost on part with the American dollar to lows that put it a mere two thirds to current values around the three quarter mark.

The Greek financial crisis is still ongoing and could threaten the Euro further.

And so on.

An organization enters a long term (multi-year) contract with an international partner under the expectation of value, an expectation that is crated based upon a current and projected currency exchange rate — which can change radically overnight when a single country, or in some cases, a single bank, decides to do something extremely unexpected or extraordinarily stupid.

All of a sudden costs can double. That’s considerably more fluctuation than is in the reserve budget.

But what if there was no exchange of currency. What if it was an exchange of a raw material or service for another raw material or service, where each raw material or service came from the organization or a partner in the same country. Since the value of a product or service, adjusted for inflation, is relatively constant over time and since the relative value of one versus another is also relatively constant over time, such a contract would not be subject to rapid changes in value differences regardless of what happened in the currency markets.

Now, you’re probably thinking that this wouldn’t work — you buy from X and don’t sell them anything, but who do they buy from and what do they buy? And what do their downstream partners need? Remember, they have bills to pay too and if their supplier requires a raw material in abundant supply that could be supplied by one of your customers, that has to pay you anyway, all could work out.

For example, just because you’re buying rare earth metals for electronics manufacturing, doesn’t mean bartering is off the table. The rare earth metals provider, which provides a refined metal, might be buying from a mining company that is part of a conglomerate owned by a single company that requires specialized mining equipment on a regular basis. One of your biggest customers could be a producer of this equipment that buys all of its hardware and associated services from you. If you arranged for payment in mining equipment of your choice in today’s dollars, and the seller was happy with that conversion, you could pay in mining equipment over time, regardless of how your relative currencies rose and fell.

This might not have been imaginable years ago given all the supply chain visibility, data, and optimization models that would be required to identify the right value-generating deals that could keep costs constant over time, but with modern supply chain systems that enable visibility from the raw material to the end customer, all supply relationships, demands and spend, and multi-level optimization models, this is now a reality. And currency risk could effectively be made a thing of the past in large, critical categories. It could require more multi-party agreements, but if all parties benefit, why not? It’s not like you have to courier contracts around the world — create a secure collaboration portal, agree, e-sign, and you’re done.

Now, just like buying on behalf of the supplier to get lower costs through greater volume leverage is still only done by the leaders, SI expects that this is something that only leaders would do for at least the next decade, if it was done at all. What do you think? Will leaders catch on?

Infrastructure Sustentation 12: Airlines

Airlines are sometimes the most unpredictable of the infrastructure damnations. Postal services failures can be overcome with private carriers. Road closures can be overcome with longer detours. Port closures can be overcome by routing to alternate ports and trucking for longer distances. But when airlines fail, especially when all airlines are unable to serve a region, what do you do. Send a zeppelin? (And when was the last time those great balls of fire just waiting for a spark were used?)

The reality is that airlines are subject to a host of threats that can shut them down at a moment’s notice including, but not limited to:

  • Environmental Hazards

    planes can’t fly through hurricanes, tornados, or tsunamis; they can’t fly when the air is filled with volcanic ash (that will choke up an engine); they can’t land on water or thin ice); etc.

  • Geopolitical

    embargoes, disputes, and wars can close down a zone for an extended period of time

  • Labour

    worker strikes can take an airline down for an extended length of time

And even if this doesn’t happen, there’s still the risk that:

  • AirFreight can skyrocket over night.

    It’s not only ocean freight that can increase 20% or 30% almost overnight, air freight can too (especially when fuel costs skyrocket)

So what can you do?

Minimize Dependence on Air Freight

Yes it’s nice to get things overnight, but with proper supply chain planning, do you really need things overnight? For the bulk of enterprise and consumer goods, the answer is no. And with ocean freight able to get things across the ocean in as little as 23 days, that should be fast enough for most needs.

Have a Backup Plan

Have a backup airline, a backup departure point, a backup arrival point, plans to rail/truck the cargo to backup departure and destination points, and worst-case ocean or land backup plans for at least part of the journey if airlines shut down in a region due to another volcanic eruption.

Get Your Own Cargo Jet (Fleet)

As long as planes can fly, you can have more control. This isn’t a solution for anyone who doesn’t do a lot of air freight, but if you do, just like building your own power plant may soon be a necessity, so may be controlling your own air fleet.

Geopolitical Sustentation 31: China and the New Silk Road

As per our damnation post last year, as part of it’s Grand Strategy, China has recreated the Silk Road, which has been active since November 18, 2015 when the first train left the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang province for a warehouse complex in Madrid, which it reached on December 9th. And it’s not going to stop until it crosses all of China and connects the entirety of Europe and Asia.

And when we say it’s not going to stop, we mean it. As per an article on Forbes on January 21, 2016 on how China is Moving Mountains for the New Silk Road – Literally, they won’t even let mountains get in the way. Four years ago, the entirety of the downtown Lanzhou New Area (LNA) was hundreds of mountaintops, which have been removed to make flat land for development. That’s right, they cut down mountains. In North America, it’s sometimes a massive undertaking just to flatten a few hills for a flat highway. They brought in the equipment and manpower to flatten mountains! If that doesn’t show you how serious they are about trade domination, I don’t know what will.

China is in the midst of implementing its OBOR (One-Belt, One-Road) initiative that will facilitate the creation of a gargantuan network of new highways, rail lines, logistics and industrial zones, pipelines, power plants, sea ports, and even entirely new cities that will stretch from East Asia to Western Europe, span over 60 countries, and impact over half of the world’s GDP, putting an end to US dominance once and for all. (The OBOR initiative also has a sea route, the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, that goes through the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean, which also connects China to all of Africa (and the Middle East), giving them access to the entirety of 3 of the 6 populated continents and 6/7ths of the world’s population!

China is not only an emerging economy, it is the emerging economy that will soon be powering, directly or indirectly, almost 2/3rds of GDP when the silk road is completed and it has it’s hooks across 3 continents.

And, as we said in our damnation post, China is about to become your upstream as well as your downstream supply chain. You have to abandon your old view of the world, accept this reality, and start preparing for it. It doesn’t have to be the damnation that causes your undoing. It can be your salvation. Your choice.

So how do you prepare for it?

1. Learn Mandarin

Chances are your China partners will speak better English than you will speak Mandarin, but any attempt to seriously learn their language will be seen as a sign of respect and good faith and go a long way in negotiations. And even if you aren’t the negotiator, you will be able to communicate with almost 1 Billion native speakers. (That’s roughly twice as many native English speakers.)

2. Model your source-to-sink Euro-Asiatic supply chain.

Don’t just model the inbound supply chain, model the outbound too – and when you do your network design, strategic sourcing, and logistics models, try to find the best locations for storing inbound and outbound materials and products, for manufacturing to take advantage of a strong network design, and to minimize import/export/FTZ requirements and logistics network length. Long gone are the days when you are sourcing from China to sell in the US. Now you are sourcing from China to sell to the world, China included, so why manufacture in Malaysia to ship back to China. You need to take your supply chain and sourcing optimization to the next level. (Which is something the Six Samurai can help you with from a sourcing perspective.)

3. Treat your Big China Suppliers as Strategic Partners

Even if you are convinced they don’t understand your business model, the American marketplace, and the global consumer and even if you are convinced that their only goal is to rip you off at every turn (because you are paranoid or your golf course buddy found one of the scammers, which there are in every country), they know their local market and their own preferences better than you. And even if China is not a market today, if your company needs growth, chances are it will have to be tomorrow and you will need their guidance, and possibly even their innovation capability. So get ahead of your competition in their books.

Now, more will be required, but this should put you on the right track, er, road. The silk road. Which will again be the centre of global trade.