Category Archives: Miscellaneous

Got a Headache? Don’t Take an Aspirin or Query a LLM!

Yesterday we provided you with a brief history of Aspirin, the first turn-of-the-century miracle drug that was both society’s salvation and sorrow, though the latter wouldn’t be known for more than half a century. As we discussed, it was hailed as a miracle and life-saving drug that could be used for everything from the common cold to global pandemics. And it worked, for a price. That price, when it needed to be paid, was usually one of many, many side effects which were often minor and insignificant compared to the perceived benefit the drug was bringing, except when they weren’t and they enflamed ulcers and/or increased gastrointestinal bleeding and created a life threatening situation, caused hyperventilation in a pneumonia patient, or induced a pulmonary edema and killed the patient. While the death rate even at the height of over-prescription was likely only 3%, and less than a 10th of that today, it’s still not good.

The reason for this, as we elaborated in our last post, is because, like many of the breakthrough technologies that came before, it was not only rolled out before the side effects, and more importantly, the long term effects, were well understood, but before even the proper use for the desired primary effects were well understood (as evidenced by the fact that the best physicians were routinely prescribing two to four times the maximum safe dosage during the Spanish Flu Pandemic almost 20 years after first availability). While there were benefits, there were consequences, some of them severe, and others deadly.

Medicine is as much a technology as a new mode of transportation (boat, automobile, airplane, etc.), a new piece of manufacturing equipment, a new computing device, or a new piece of software.

Now you see the point. Every breakthrough tech cycle is the same. Whether it is medicine, farm machinery, the airplane, or modern software technology — and this includes AI and definitely includes LLMs like ChatGPT.

As Aspirin proves, even if the first test seems to be successful, there’s always more beneath the surface. Especially when the population numbers in the billions and every individual could react differently. Or, in the case of an LLM, billions of people who have thousands of queries, the large majority of which have never been tested, and all of which could generate unknown results.

Moreover, there have not been significant large-scale independently funded academic studies that we can use to understand the true strengths and weaknesses, truths and hallucinations, and appropriate utilization of the technology. As Mr. Klein has pointed out in a recent LinkedIn post that asked who funded that study, over 80% of AI industry “studies” are funded by undisclosed sources, and most of them, like most industry studies these days (see Mr. Hembitski’s latest post) don’t contain good data on demographics, sample size, test material, or potential bias.

That would be the first step to trying to get a grip on this technology. The next step would be to create reasonable measures that we could use to appropriately define technology categories and domains for which we could identify tests and measures that would give us a level of confidence for a given population of inputs or usage. If you consider a traditional (X)NN (Neural Network), which have a fixed set of outputs and are designed to process inputs from a known population, we have developed methodologies to determine the accuracy of such models with high confidence through testing and random sampling with sufficiently sized data sets using appropriate statistical models. Furthermore, mathematicians have proved the accuracy of those models for a given population and we know that if appropriate tests have demonstrated 90% accuracy for a population with 98% confidence, the model is 90% accurate with 98% confidence when used properly.

We have no such guarantees for LLMs, nor any proof that they are reliable. “It worked fine for me” is NOT proof. Vendors quoting nebulous client success stories (without client names or real data) is not proof. Moreover, the fact they raised millions of dollars to bring this technology to market is definitely not proof. (All a raise proves is that the C-Suite sales team is very charismatic and convincing and great at selling a story. Nothing more. In fact, fund raising would be more honest if securities law allowed fund raising via poker and takeover protection via gunfighting, as imagined in the season two episode of Sliders “The Good, the Bad, and the Wealthy“. At least then the shenanigans would be out in the open.)

The closest thing out there to a good industry study on LLMs and LRMs is likely Apple’s newest study, as summarized in The Guardian, where they find that “standard AI models outperformed LRMs in low-complexity tasks while both types of model suffered “complete collapse” with high-complexity tasks“.

The study also found that as LRMs neared performance collapse they began “reducing their reasoning effort and that if the problem was complex enough even when provided with an algorithm that would solve the problem, the models failed.

Still we have to question this study, or more precisely, the release of this study (especially given the timing). Did Apple do it out of genuine academic interest to get to the bottom of the technology claims, or are they doing it to cast doubt on competition as rivals are claiming they are behind in the AI race (and thus they are focussing only on the negatives of the technology to show that their competition doesn’t have what their competition claims to have and are thus not behind).

The point is, we don’t understand this technology, and that fact should scream louder in your head every day. Look at all the bad stuff we’ve discovered so far, and it’s likely we’re not even close to being done yet:

Yes there is potential to the new technology, as there is with all discovery, but until we understand fully not only what that is, how to use it safely, and, most importantly, how to prevent harm, we should approach it with extreme caution and we should most definitely not let it tell us how to run our business or our lives — or else, like an Aspirin overdose, it might just kill us. (And remember, Aspirin was studied for 18 years before it was made available without a prescription, and deadly side effects and prescribed overdoses still happened. In comparison, today’s LLMs and LRMs haven’t been formally studied at all, and the providers of this technology want you to run your business, and your life, off of them in next-generation agentic systems. Think about that! And when the migraine comes, remember, don’t take Aspirin!)

A Brief History of Aspirin

The history of Aspirin, a genericized trademark for acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), and more precisely, aspirin precursors, is a long and winding one, which goes all the way back to ancient Sumer and Egypt, with the famous Hippocrates referring to the use of salicylic tea to reduce fever circa 400 BC. Now, since I’m sure you haven’t come here for a complete history of Aspirin from ancient times to present day, especially since you want to understand the relevance of this discussion sooner rather than much later, we’re going to skip ahead to 1897.

In 1897, Felix Hoffmann and/or Arthur Eichengrün of Bayer was the first to produce acetylsalicylic acid in a pure, stable form. It was only two short years later before Bayer began to sell the drug globally under the brand name of Aspirin, with the first tablet appearing in 1900. It wasn’t long before Aspirin’s popularity took off as it was touted as a “turn of the century miracle drug“, especially since early trials (published in an 1899 study in the journals Die Heilkunde and Therapeutische Monatshefte) demonstrated that Aspirin was indeed superior to other known salicylates. Moreover, since this drug was deemed to be considerably safer and comparably less toxic to the drugs it was replacing, it was fast-tracked through review and approval processes and first became available to the public without a prescription in 1915, only 15 years after the first tablet appeared. If you consider the rate of progress and introduction of new technologies at the turn of the century, this was blazingly fast for the time.

It’s quick, and early, introduction arguably made it the first modern over-the-counter mass market pharmaceutical product as well as a household name across the world. As the first generally available pharmaceutical anti-inflammatory and pain-killer, it changed societies. It allowed anyone to deal with mild to moderate pain and continue to function. It allowed doctors to quickly get inflammation and fever under control and spend more time diagnosing the cause, or simply move onto the next patient if it was a flu or infection they couldn’t do anything about (and the patient just had to survive long enough to fight it off on their own). Since there was no technology to quickly develop a vaccine for a heretofore unknown virus back in 1916, it was hailed as the literal lifesaver during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. Even though that pandemic [which infected over 20% of the global population] killed an estimated 50 MILLION people, or almost 3% of the global population at the time, (which means COVID really wasn’t that bad with a global death toll of 7 Million, or a mere 0.1% of the global population) it is believed that many more people would have succumbed to the Spanish Flu without Aspirin that helped them control the fever (and the pain) long enough for their body to fight off the infection on its own. (And many articles to this day claim this, including this 2019 article from the Saturday Evening Post.)

But guess what? Aspirin didn’t save. Aspirin Killed!

In 1916 Aspirin was still new and physicians didn’t understand the long term effects or the proper dosage levels. Moreover, the sicker you were, the more they’d give you. Regimens were 8g to 31g a day, which, by the way, is two to four times the maximum safe dosage for an average adult (of 4g). Two to four times! What’s even worse is that at those levels, 33% and 3% of patients will experience hyperventilation and pulmonary edema, respectively. The last thing you want when experiencing a high fever and pneumonia is hyperventilation. The stress on an older adult or one with already compromised lungs (due to smoking, coal mining, asbestos production, or genetic conditions) could literally be lethal. Moreover, pulmonary edema generally is, unless you have immediate access to an expert physician who can drain the fluids without collapsing your lung. As per recent research, it’s likely that at least 3% of those administered Aspirin for the Spanish Flu died from the Aspirin overdoses they were being given.

Of course, the damage done by Aspirin was not limited to the Spanish Flu Epidemic. It wasn’t long before Aspirin was prescribed for everything. Common cold? Check. Sore throat? Check. Arthritic pain? Check. Heart problems? Check. See the 1933 Advertisement in the linked Saturday Evening Post article above. (Note that a tablet at that time would have been about 325 grams [Source], like today, and the advertisement was recommending 1.3 grams in 4 hours and gargling with 975 grams, of which you need to expect some additional absorption (of 5% to 10%, we’ll assume worst case), bringing that total to 1.4 grams. While not nearly as bad as the Spanish Flu level prescriptions, that’s still twice the amount that should be taken in a 4 hour window, and that was being taken in 2 hours.)

When we say damage, we mean damage. Moreover, the damage goes beyond the almost 60 side effects you can find on the Mayo Clinic page.

This is because regular use and/or overdoses of aspirin:

  • increase the risk of developing stomach ulcers,
  • agitate and stomach exacerbate ulcers and can cause bleeding, and
  • can increase non-life threatening ulcer or gastrointestinal bleeding to the point of life threatening

Moreover, in some people it can irritate the lining of the stomach and begin the formation of an ulcer after just a few doses!

But the general population didn’t know this in the 1930s. Heck, it was the 1950s or 1960s before it started to become common knowledge that aspirin wasn’t good if you have an upset stomach or an ulcer. (As far as I can tell, while the first study of aspirin on the stomach was in a 1938 publication by A. H. Douthwaite and G. A. M. Lintott, the subject matter and research was not taken seriously until the 1950s and 1960s, where you had publications like this by R. A. Douglas and E. D. Johnston on Aspirin and the Chronic Gastric Ulcer, which also references the 1938 publication.)

Which means millions of people around the world were using a medicine on a daily basis that was, due to misuse, often harming them as much as it was helping them. And this is only ONE of the 60 potential side effects. (And how many were known, or communicated, in the 1920s through 1950s?)

Because, like many of the breakthrough technologies that came before, it was not only rolled out before the side effects, and more importantly, the long term effects, were well understood, but before even the proper use for the desired primary effects were well understood (as evidenced by the fact that the best physicians were routinely prescribing two to four times the maximum safe dosage during the Spanish Flu Pandemic almost 20 years after first availability). And while there were benefits, there were consequences, some of them severe, and others deadly.

So what’s the relevance? Stay tuned.

Happy National Sourdough Bread Day

It’s pretty clear with the state of the world right now that April Fool’s Day is cancelled as it appears we are all subject to one never-ending year-long prank no matter what country we live in.

So go bake a sourdough and at least you will be able to enjoy something today …

Two Decades of Tough Times for the Oompa Loompas

Long time readers will know that Sourcing Innovation has been covering the plight of the Oompa Loompas ever since some of them gave up chocolate for code (at Coupa). And it hasn’t been good. Fifteen years ago there was E. Coli at the Nestle Plant (link). Five years ago, there was potential Hepatitis A contamination with Kentucky QVC Chocolate (link). Today, Lindt is facing a lawsuit over lead levels. (Source)

Hopefully some day they can go back to Chocolateering in peace.

Blinded By The Hype!

To the tune of Blinded by the Light by Bruce Springsteen.

Madman, PR, bummers
Marketers in the summer with a teenage solution
In the dumps with the mumps
As the adolescent pumps his way into the chat
With a boulder on my shoulder, feelin’ kinda older
I tripped the merry-go-round
With this very unpleasin’, sneezin’ and wheezin’
Calliope crashed to the ground

Some all-hot half-shot was headin’ for the hot spot,
Snappin’ his fingers, clappin’ his hands
Some bespot mascot was caught doing the robot trot
with a whatnot in its hand
Now young Scott with a slingshot finally hit a tender spot
and throws his vendor in the sand
Some bloodshot forget-me-not whispers, “Legal’s within earshot,
save the buckshot, buy on the lamb”

But they were blinded by the hype
Revved up like a deuce, another Gen-AI ectype
Blinded by the hype

They got down but they never got tight
They just won’t make it alright

Some brimstone, baritone, anticyclone, rolling stone
Preacher from the West
He says, “Replace the reporter”, hit me in the funny bone
I thought it was all in jest
And some new-mown chaperone was standin’ in the corner all alone
Watchin’ the young ones code
And some fresh-sown intern was messin’ with the data files
And all the while hoping it wouldn’t implode

Yeah, he was blinded by the hype
Oh, revved up like a deuce, another Gen-AI ectype
Blinded by the hype

He got down but he never got tight
He won’t make it alright

Some silicone sister with a manager mister
Told me they got what it takes
She said, “I’ll turn you on sonny to something strong
If I use the prompt with the funky break”
And desk-bound Aneed was checkin’ out the chatbot feed
To see if it was safe to go outside
And little Early-Pearly came by in his curly-wurly
And asked me if I wanted to try!

Oh, some hazard from Harvard was tripped on hype,
playin’ bacykard financier
Yes, and Dragon’s Den was trying hard,
they sent some dude with a calling card
He said, “Do what you like, just use AI here”
Well I jumped up, turned around, spit in the air, fell on the ground
Asked him which was the way back home
He said,” Take a right at the light, keep goin’ straight until night,
and then boys, you’re all on your own”

And now in the bazaar, a shootin’ star was ridin’ in a side car
hummin’ a lunar tune
Yes, and the architect said, “MVP, but first remove the cookie crumbs,
we’re gonna teach those boys to buy too soon”
And some distressed pro-buyer was complainin’ his system caught fire
from an AI he tried last night
Well, I purged his system cache as his drive I flashed,
I saw him calm and hoped that he’d be alright

But he was blinded by the hype
Revved up like a deuce, another Gen-AI ectype
Blinded by the hype

Mama always told me not to look into the eyes of a sage
Woah, but mama, that’s where the truth is, oh yeah

They were blinded
They were blinded
They were blinded
They were blinded

They were blinded