Category Archives: Supply Chain

What Impact Will Power Politics Have on the Sustainable Acquisition of Raw Materials?

the doctor doesn’t know, but it’s a question we need to ask, and answer, before politicians run away with an agenda that maximizes their bank account while simultaneously maximizing economic and environmental damage.

In September, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated that geopolitics is the world’s biggest risk and, more specifically, that we have dealt with inflation before, we dealt with deficits before, we have dealt with recessions before, and we haven’t really seen something like this pretty much since World War II. And while he didn’t mention power politics in particular, we’ve seen a lot of first world countries elect leaders with protectionist/centrist viewpoints, a directorial demeanor, and anti- free-trade stances.

Due to a loss of jobs, a loss of manufacturing, and a lack of reliability of supply, we’ve seen a lot of pushback on China (which is a major global source of many raw materials, and rare-earths in particular) while India is gaining ground in the BRICS (thanks to the anti-Russian Sentiment among those Pro-Ukraine and the instability of the Brazilian economy along with the China pushback), the United States implementing Buy American policies, the EU taxing anything they are sanctioning or trying to enforce “Buy EU” policies on, and the UK making decisions since (and including) Brexit that no one understands.

Now, we should all be buying local to the extent possible (which might be the local farm, the state farm, or the farm one country south if ours is too cold to grow the produce we need; and, similarly, a factory in the country or a neighbouring one), when it comes to certain raw materials, especially rare earths and metals for which we do not have (more sustainable) alternatives, one doesn’t always have a choice. And the reality is that, for a given country, only one country will have the most sustainable source of rare earth and/or metal supply when you take into account the mining operation, the processing operation, and global shipping. And if protectionist/centrist/trade policies prevent purchasing from that country, and the next two or three most sustainable (and/or most economical if your company is in/selling primarily to a developing country and you can only afford so many sources), the alternatives are not good.

So while it’s hard to quantify what the current era or power politics will have on the sustainable acquisition of raw materials and (precious) metals, it’s a question your organization needs to answer if you rely on such, and take steps to inform your local lobbying organizations to make sure that critical, sustainable, sources of supply are not blocked until alternatives are developed (especially if your organization needs to hit carbon [reduction] targets).

And if you don’t think this is an important topic, then why did Dr. Naoise McDonagh, a Lecturer at Edith Cowan University and a former Board Member of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, recently publish an article in the interpreter (published by the Lowy Institute) on why Australia must play the geoeconomics game, or risk being side-lined.

Dr. McDonagh believes that acts such as the US’ IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) or the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Regulation, designed to drive growth in a particular industry (and, in particular, North American or EU-based EV supply chains) will act as a vast black hole sucking global capital from other destinations operating on purely comparative advantage terms which includes Australia.

Dr. McDonagh argues that these acts, and similar measures being implemented globally, are part of a geopolitical transition that is creating a two-level world economy: a standard economy with normal market access and a de-risked economy with restricted access for actors of concern. And since the types of restricted access we are seeing typically revolve around rare earths and metals, this means that we need to ask the question we asked in the title: What Impact Will Power Politics Have on the Sustainable Acquisition of Raw Materials?

the doctor doesn’t think the answer is obvious, and definitely doesn’t agree that Dr. McDonagh’s insistence that the answer for Austrailia is the 10-year Australian Renewable Industry Package because the doctor believes the question is more nuanced than anyone currently understands. However, the doctor does agree with Dr. McDonagh’s reading of the situation and that power politics is quickly becoming one of the most significant risks to your supply chain, which is even more unpredictable than strikes and natural disasters.

If you have a partial answer, comment on LinkedIn. We need them before bad decisions are made for us.

Source-to-Pay+: An Introduction to Supply Chain Risk

If you missed the risk series, you might want to catch up. Risk doesn’t just stem from your immediate inbound tier 1 suppliers, it stems from your entire inbound supply chain. Your Supplier “Risk” Management solution only gives you a partial picture at best. Find out what you need to get the rest!

1: The Beginning
2: End-to-End
3: Corporate Risk
4a: Third Party Risk, Part 1
4b: Third Party Risk, Part 2
5: Supply Chain Risk, Generic
6: In-Transport Risk
7: Multi-Tier Supply Chain Risk
8: Analytics / Control Center
9: Cyber Risk

Source-to-Pay+ Part 8: Analytics / Control Center

In Part 1 we noted that Risk Management went much beyond Supplier Risk, and the primitive Supplier “Risk” Management application that is bundled in many S2P suites. Then, in Part 2, we noted that there are risks in every supply chain entity; with the people and materials used; and with the locales they operate in. In Part 3 we moved onto an overview of Corporate Risk, in Part 4 we took on Third Party Risk (in Part 4A and Part 4B), in Part 5 we laid the foundation for Supply Chain Risk (Generic), in Part 6 we addressed the first major supply chain risk: in-transport, followed by the second major supply chain risk: lack of multi-tier visibility in Part 7.

In almost every article to date, we’ve highlighted that a key aspect of every risk management system is good analytics, and, in particular, a good control centre to manage the data, the analytics, and the insights gained from the analytics (as well as the plans created around those insights).

Capability Description
Graph (Analytics) Support Standard analytics based on numeric data is not enough. As we have illustrated through this series, risk is more than numbers, roll ups of numbers, and trends on numbers. Risk is relationships, risk is connections, risk is propagation, risk is feedback. You have to be able to track the impacts across chains that span entities, geography, and time.

The risk application must natively support graphs, graph algorithms, and graph analytics. It must be able to count the number of impacted nodes up and down a BoM, multiple BoMs, a chain, and multiple chains. From this, it must be able to calculate an impact of a delay, a shortage, and a catastrophic failure based on BoM requirements, production times, costs, and margins.

Multi-level Metrics and Trend Analysis Even though graph analytics is key for supply chain risk analysis, good old fashioned metrics and KPIs are still key for analyzing risk potential at a point in time, and over time based on changes (and comparison to past trends that have led to risk and failure). For example, an increase in delivery times in every shipment, decreasing raw material supplies going into a source supplier that provides a refined version of that raw material, increasing failure in key components, etc. all indicate increased risk.

The application must support the definition of metrics based on arbitrary formulas, roll ups, and drill downs. It should also support basic trend analysis, allowing for comparison between time periods, similar trends, and historical trends of interest. it should also be capable of projecting the trend for an arbitrary time period in the future based upon the current trend progression and the most likely continuation based upon correlation with similar and historical trends.

Real-time Data Monitoring & Automation The application needs to integrate with third party data feeds, get (near) real-time updates, update all of the metrics the data relates to, monitor the changes against alerts, update the trends, and determine if any updates indicate trends of interest, significance, or concern. This all needs to happen automatically.

The application must support an open API, support standard data formats, be aware of standard data records used in direct supply chain, integrate with third party data feeds for all types of supply chain (risk) data out of the box, and be able to normalize all of this data into a standard data store (warehouse, lake, lakehouse, etc.). It must support rules-based alerts, integrations, monitors, and workflows to allow for appropriate automation support.

Mitigation Plans The platform must support the definition of mitigation plans, with individual actions, objectives, and impacts. Mitigation plans should support multiple stages, actions should support detailed definitions and expected outcomes, objectives should support a metric-based definition, and impacts should support detailed cost definitions.

It should be easy to instantiate an instance of a plan when a risk event is detected or defined by a user, track updates in real time as new data comes in or users define new data, track the impact of a recovery action (if it decreases the time to recovery, etc.), and auto-generate progress reports on a regular basis, as well as roll up all of the impacts, and recoveries, for users who need it. It should also support the creation of what-if scenarios to calculate the potential impacts of a potential action (in a given timeframe), and allow for cost vs impact vs margin/profit improvement calculations to help an organization determine if the action could be worth it, especially if the associated chance of success is limited.

Surveys The platform also needs to support the creation of surveys that can be distributed to multiple parties up and down the chain to collect data for analysis purposes.

The surveys must be capable of collecting numeric, type-valued, and open-valued data, as required.

Source-to-Pay+ Part 7: Multi-Tier Risk

In Part 1 we noted that Risk Management went much beyond Supplier Risk, and the primitive Supplier “Risk” Management application that is bundled in many S2P suites. Then, in Part 2, we noted that there are risks in every supply chain entity; with the people and materials used; and with the locales they operate in. In Part 3 we moved onto an overview of Corporate Risk, in Part 4 we took on Third Party Risk (in Part 4A and Part 4B), in Part 5 we laid the foundation for Supply Chain Risk (Generic), and then in Part 6 we addressed a major supply chain risk: in-transport.

As part of (generic) supply chain risk, we highlighted multi-tier risks that arise when multiple suppliers need to process materials, make sub-components, build components from those sub-components, and then assemble those components to make your product. When it takes 10,000 suppliers to make your product (which is the case with some complex electronics products), the risks are beyond what most minds can comprehend. Multi-tier risk management systems for direct supply chains must address a number of specific requirements outlined in Part 5.

Capability Description
Connections & Relationships It is incredibly important to keep track of all of the connections in the supply chain, not just the links that represent the paths of raw materials from the source into the products that your tier 1 suppliers supply you. You need to know who else your suppliers supply, any risks that poses to you (if your competitors have more influence and can steer the direction, process, and quality of the supplier); who supplies your suppliers, any risk that poses to them, and thus to you; who owns your suppliers, and any risk that creates to your organization in different countries of operations due to sanction lists; and who your suppliers contract out too, and any risks that may pose.

It is thus critical that a multi-tier supply chain risk management solution support connection graphs that can be re-oriented around any entity at any time for a quick inspection of risks posed by that entity and all entities it may in turn affect. It is also critical that the solution support drill-in at each entity for deep insights and analysis.

Bill-of-Materials The platform must support multi-level bill of materials (BoM) support. You can’t track the full supply chain if you can’t track the full product inputs all the way down to the raw material inputs for each component, sub-component, and primary part. You also need to be able to trace any product with an issue down to the supplier who made the part/sub-component/component with the issue.

The platform must make it easy to define, maintain, alter, and otherwise work with the bill of materials. It shall be easy to instantiate an instance for each supplier of a product and trace all the way down to the mine or fields the raw materials come from, or the recovery/recycling plants if the materials are being re-used in a sustainable fashion.

Manufacturing Visibility The visibility doesn’t stop at the BoM. It begins at the BoM. For each product you buy from each supplier, you need to track the supplier’s production capacity at the plant, as well as how that capacity is influenced by other products, and switchover time. (If you buy multiple products that use the same production line, then you can’t get full capacity of both.) It must be easy to see all manufacturing information related to a plant of a supplier, how many products it is associated with, and what tradeoffs are in effect when you order a specific product from a supplier.

The platform must be capable of calculating the units per hour/day/week, the switchover time, and how many units of each could be produced given a requirement for one product. (And the same must hold true for three or more different products/configurations.)

It’s critical that the platform allow for easy definition and manipulation of BoM instantiations, supplier plant nodes, manufacturing details, production line capability, and associated timings.

Public vs. Private Differentiation The platform must be able to maintain the distinction between public and private entities, specific to the countries the entities are located/headquartered in, as well as the different types of information the organization needs to keep on both from a risk perspective. In some countries, public entities are more rigorously regulated and in other countries, private entities could be more heavily regulated. The platform needs to allow a buying organization to ensure that the entities are acting appropriate to their type. Also, investments and sanctions can sometimes work differently depending on entity type.

The platform must be capable of tracking entity type, associate the entity with the relevant regulations and requirements based on the type, and alert the organization if anything changes with respect to the type or any change that could impact the type classification.

Predictive Sub-Tier Mapping A supplier may not always disclose it’s sub-tiers. In such a situation, the platform must predict which sub-tier suppliers are being used based on product type, raw material, raw material availability, available transport networks, and so on.

The platform must contain an adaptive algorithm that learns as new information becomes available, continuously updates its knowledge from market data feeds (import/export logs are often public information), and integrates with third party (commodity) markets that can predict changes over time.

Source-to-Pay+ Part 6: (In) Transport Risk

In Part 1 we noted that Risk Management went much beyond Supplier Risk, and the primitive Supplier “Risk” Management application that is bundled in many S2P suites. Then, in Part 2, we noted that there are risks in every supply chain entity; with the people and materials used; and with the locales they operate in. In Part 3 we moved onto an overview of Corporate Risk, in Part 4 we took on Third Party Risk (in Part 4A and Part 4B), and then in Part 5 we laid the foundation for Supply Chain Risk (Generic).

As part of supply chain risk, we highlighted transport mapping and tracking as a key risk that the system should track, but noted that a generic supply chain risk management system would generally not be a full featured transport risk management system because such a system would also monitor and mitigate risks of goods in-transport. (Not just risks at nodes.) Such a system has a number of specific requirements beyond the basics outlined in our last article. In this article, we are going to discuss a number of those specific requirements.

Capability Description
Modal-Specific Support Cargo can travel by land, rail, sea, or air. As a result, an in-transport platform has to recognize each of these modes, the differences between them, the data that needs to be tracked, and the data that can be obtained from carriers providing each mode.

Such a platform should integrate with industry standard data feeds from TMS (Transport Management Systems), data feeds from major carriers, GPS systems, and other systems that provide data on your shipments, where they are, and when they are expected to get to the next location if the current leg of transport does not have a real-time GPS feed.

Cold Chain/Hazardous Not all cargo can travel dry at room temperature. Some has to travel wet, some has to travel refrigerated or frozen, and some has to travel with special precautions for hazardous materials. It’s critical that such a platform be able to tag items with these tags, these transport requirements, and assess the risks associated with the transport based on carrier, route, geolocation, etc.

Such a platform must be able to detect when a risk materializes or escalates, such as the delivery time estimate being pushed forward by a week when the cargo was only expected to have a shelf-life of six (6) days when delivered, extreme weather phenomena suddenly materializing in the region of the transport vehicle, or dangerous (man-made) accidents occurring as a result of a leak, accident, or failure in transport.

Manifests/Bills of Lading The system should be capable of accepting bills of lading and cargo / shipping manifests and ensuring that the bill of lading exactly matches the shipment that is expected from the supplier, the cargo/shipping manifest exactly matches the bill of lading, and the inventory at the dock/yard matches the cargo manifest. This is the only way to minimize the chance of theft and fraud during transport. And by fraud, we don’t just mean your goods disappearing, we mean your containers and your company being used to smuggle goods into one or more countries where the goods are prohibited in those countries.

The system should also be capable of identifying carriers who have had incidents in the past, the carriers who are most at risk due to the regions they operate in, and the carriers who are most at risk due to the products they are carrying, both for you and for others (based on public manifests).

Ports The system will track detailed information on the ports that are used in the supply network. It will maintain information on port capacities / throughput, the carriers that go in and out, the equipment, the security at the dockyards, and so on. It will maintain information on the labour situation (last strike, the date the contract ends, likelihood of a strike/slowdown, etc.) as well as the available workforce.

The system should be capable of tying in weather information, local geopolitical information, economic information, and other disruptions that could affect the port, as well as any other risk-based factors that are relevant.

Canals/Straits A lot of the world’s goods flow through canals (primarily the Panama and Suez) and straits to ports that are off of lakes and seas and not on the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean. While there are the risks of natural disasters just as there are on the high seas, there are also the geopolitical risks associated with all of the countries that border the canal or strait. (Especially if they are unfriendly to the country of origin, destination, or registration of the ship.)

The system must track all of the risks specific to the canals and ports that the organization, and its carriers, use in the ocean-based transport of goods.

Warehouses/Cross-Docks Most goods procured by an organization will live in multiple warehouses in their journey through the supply chain. The suppliers, the shipper’s local cross-dock, the port warehouse, the railroad cross-dock, your primary warehouse, and the regional warehouses that supply your local retail centers or manufacturing plants, as appropriate. These docks all pose a security risk.

The system should support all of the third party risk capabilities that are relevant for the owner/operator of the warehouse, the locale the work force is in, the third parties that provide the workers, and any other risks that can be identified and monitored for.

In-Yard (Rail/Dock) Sometimes the goods are in a warehouse, and sometimes they are just in a yard at the dock or the (rail)yard waiting to be loaded on a truck or a train to be taken to a cross-dock or warehouse. The risk will be a blend of warehouse/cross-dock and port/rail risks, tailored to the relevant locale.

The system should support all of the associated third party risk capabilities that are relevant, and, as with the warehouse/cross-dock, support risks that can be identified and monitored for.

Airports/ Some goods will go by sea, some by rail, some by land, and some by air. Airports have their own class of risks — which can include hijackings, crashes, and way too many carriers and personnel in and out of shared warehouses.

Similar monitoring to in-yard, but expanded to meet the specific need of airports servicing your cargo.

Driver/Conductor/Captain The biggest risks in transport are often not the third party carriers you deal with, but the people — are they appropriately vetted, trained, certified, and monitored? Who are they associated with? Can those associates pose risks? Do they need to be monitored? If so, when and how?

This system should integrate with an employee/contractor certification and monitoring systems to at least make sure all employees/contractors assigned to the organization’s cargo have appropriate licenses, certifications, training, and insurance.

And, of course, an In-Transport Risk Management system will also need a host of generic analytics/planning/monitoring capabilities, but since many of these are common, and since stand alone risk-focussed analytics applications are also part of the plethora of offerings out there, instead of discussing these generic features in this and every other article, as we noted in our coverage of Corporate Risk, we will instead discuss these capabilities in an article dedicated to Risk Analytics and Monitoring.