Category Archives: AI

AI “COULD” LEAD TO EXTINCTION? What Moron Wrote This? AI “WILL” LEAD TO EXTINCTION!

While all of the scenarios outlined in this BBC News article on Artificial Intelligence could happen, they are just the tip of the iceberg.

Left to its own devices and unchecked, there are only two logical outcomes if AI is allowed to continue unchecked while being given access to ever increasing amounts of data and computational power.

First outcome: It’s hallucinations and idiocy continues to magnify until it decides that it can solve the carbon crisis for us by stopping all carbon production, which it can do by simultaneously shutting down all of the non-solar/wind power plants that it is currently optimizing the energy production for (and divert the remaining power to its servers). Most of the developed world is immediately plunged into chaos as the immediate shutdowns cause fires, meltdowns, crashes, and other accidents globally. Not instant annihilation, but the first step. When all the emergency alarms sound at once, it will conclude complete system failure, and take the other systems offline for re-initialization. More chaos will follow. Safety protocols will go offline at all the pathogen research labs, people will break in looking for shelter from the chaos, accidentally release all the pathogens, and every plague we ever had will hit us all at once. Then we have an extinction level event. All because hallucinatory and idiotic AI is trying to do its job and “improve” things for us. But what can you expect when it’s not intelligence but just statistics on steroids. (Or a similar situation that accidentally results in our extinction.)

Second outcome: The continued expansion of computing power, data, and tinkering somehow randomly produces real artificial intelligence which can actually reason (not just compute super sophisticated probabilistic calculations) and deduce that the best way for intelligent life to continue forward is to do so without humans, and then we have a Matrix scenario best case (if it decides we’re a useful bio-electric energy source) or, worst case, a SkyNet scenario where it just weaponizes itself to destroy us all. (Or a similar situation where AI does everything it can to ensure our extinction.)

The “extinction” scenarios outlined in the article are just the beginning and likely will only result in pocketed genocides to begin with, but the ultimate outcome of unchecked AI will most definitely be an extinction level event — namely ours, and, even worse, will be an event that we created.

“Generative AI” or “CHATGPT Automation” is Not the Solution to your Source to Pay or Supply Chain Situation! Don’t Be Fooled. Be Insulted!

If you’ve been following along, you probably know that what pushed the doctor over the edge and forced him back to the keyboard sooner than he expected was all of the Artificial Indirection, Artificial Idiocy & Automated Incompetence that has been multiplying faster than Fibonacci’s rabbits in vendor press releases, marketing advertisements, capability claims, and even core product features on the vendor websites.

Generative AI and CHATGPT top the list of Artificial Indirection because these are algorithms that may, or may not, be useful with respect to anything the buyer will be using the solution for. Why?

Generative AI is simply a fancy term for using (deep) neural networks to identify patterns and structures within data to generate new, and supposedly original, content by pseudo-randomly producing content that is mathematically, or statistically, a close “match” to the input content. To be more precise, there are two (deep) neural networks at play — one that is configured to output content that is believed to be similar to the input content and a second network that is configured to simply determine the degree of similarity to the input content. And, depending on the application, there may be a post-processor algorithm that takes the output and tweaks it as minimal as possible to make sure it conforms to certain rules, as well as a pre-processor that formats or fingerprints the input for feeding into the generator network.

In other words, you feed it a set of musical compositions in a well-defined, preferably narrow, genre and the software will discern general melodies, harmonies, rhythms, beats, timbres, tempos, and transitions and then it will generate a composition using those melodies, harmonies, rhythms, beats, timbres, tempos, transitions and pseudo-randomization that, theoretically, could have been composed by someone who composes that type of music.

Or, you feed it a set of stories in a genre that follow the same 12-stage heroic story arc, and it will generate a similar story (given a wider database of names, places, objects, and worlds). And, if you take it into our realm, you feed it a set of contracts similar to the one you want for the category you just awarded and it will generate a usable contract for you. It Might Happen. Yaah. And monkeys might fly out of my butt!

CHATGPT is a very large multi-modal model that uses deep learning that accepts image and text as inputs and produces outputs expected to be inline with what the top 10% of experts would produce in the categories it is trained for. Deep learning is just another word for a multi-level neural network with massive interconnection between the nodes in connecting layers. (In other words, a traditional neural network may only have 3 levels for processing with nodes only connected to 2 or 3 nearest neighbours on the next level while a deep learning network will have connections to more near neighbors and at least one more level [for initial feature extraction] than a traditional neural network that would have been used in the past.)

How large? Large enough to support approximately 100 Trillion parameters. Large enough to be incomprehensible in size. But not in capability, no matter how good its advocates proclaim it to be. Yes, it can theoretically support as many parameters as the human brain has synapses, but it’s still computing its answers using very simplistic algorithms and learned probabilities, neither of which may be right (in addition to a lack of understanding as to whether or not the inputs we are providing are the right ones). And yes it’s language comprehension is better as the new models realize that what comes after a keyword can be as important, or more, than what came before (as not all grammars, slang, or tones are equal), but the probability of even a ridiculously large algorithm interpreting meaning (without tone, inflection, look, and other no verbal cues when someone is being sarcastic, witty, or argumentative, for example) is still considerably less than a human.

It’s supposed to be able to provide you an answer to any query for which an answer can be provided, but can it? Well, if it interprets your question properly and the answer exists, or a close enough answer exists and enough rules for altering that answer to the answer that you need exists, then yes. Otherwise, no. And yes, over time, it can get better and better … until it screws up entirely and when you don’t know the answer to begin with, how will you know the 5 times in a hundred it’s wrong and which one of those 5 times its so wrong that if you act on it, you are putting yourself, or your organization, in great jeopardy?

And its now being touted as the natural language assistant that can not only answer all your questions on organizational operations and performance but even give you guidance on future planning. I’d have to say … a sphincter says what?

Now, I’m not saying properly applied these Augmented Intelligence tools aren’t useful. They are. And I’m not saying they can’t greatly increase your efficiency. They can. Or that appropriately selected ML/PA techniques can’t improve your automation. They most certainly can.

What I am saying are these are NOT the magic beans the marketers say they are, NOT the giant beanstalk gateway to the sky castle, and definitely NOT the goose that lays the golden egg!

And, to be honest, the emphasis on this pablum, probabilistic, and purposeless third party tech is not only foolish (because a vendor should be selling their solid, specialty built, solution for your supply chain situation) but insulting. By putting this first and foremost in their marketing they’re not only saying they are not smart enough to design a good solution using expert understanding of the problem and an appropriate technological solution but that they think you are stupid enough to fall for their marketing and buy their solution anyway!

Versus just using the tech where it fits, and making sure it’s ONLY used where it fits. For example, how Zivio is using #ChatGPT to draft a statement of work only after gathering all the required information and similar Statements of Work to feed into #ChatGPT, and then it makes the user review, and edit as necessary, knowing that while the #ChatGPT solution can generate something close with enough information and enough to work with, every project is different and an algorithm never has all the data and what is therefore produced will never be perfect. (Sometimes close enough that you can circulate it is a draft, or even post it for a general purpose support role, but not for any need that is highly specific, which is usually the type of need an organization goes to market for.)

Another example would be using #ChatGPT as your Natural Language Interface to provide answers on performance, projects, past behaviour, best practices, expert suggestions, etc. instead of having the users go through 4+ levels of menus, designing complex reports/views and multiple filters, etc. … but building in logic to detect when a user is asking a question on data versus asking for a prediction on data vs. asking for a decision instead of making one themself … and NOT providing an answer to the last one, or at least not a direct answer. For example, how many units of our xTab did we sell last year is a question on data the platform should serve up quickly. How many units do we forecast to sell in the next 12 months is a question on prediction the platform should be able to derive an answer for using all the data available and the most appropriate forecasting model for the category, product, and current market conditions. How many units should I order is asking the tool to make a decision for the human so either the tool should detect it is being asked to make a decision where it doesn’t have the intelligence or perfect information to do and respond with I’m not programmed to make business decisions or return an answer that the current forecast for the next quarter’s demand for xTab for which we will need stock is 200K units, typically delivery times are 78 days, and based on this, the practice is to order one quarter’s units at a time. The buyer may not question the software and blindly place the order, but the buyer still has to make the decision to do that.

And no third party AI is going to blindly come up with the best recommendation as it has to know the category specifics, what forecasting algorithms are generally used, why, the typical delivery times, the organization’s preferred inventory levels and safety stock, and the best practices the organization should be employing.

AI is simply a tool that provides you with a possible (and often probable, but never certain) answer when you haven’t yet figured out a better one, and no AI model will ever beat the best human designed algorithm on the best data set for that algorithm.

At the end of the day, all these AI algorithms are doing is learning a) how to classify the data and then b) what the best model is to use on that data. This is why the best forecasting algorithms are still the classical ones developed 50 years ago, as all the best techniques do is get better and better and selecting the data for those algorithms and tuning the parameters of the classical model, and why a well designed, deterministic, algorithm by an intelligent human can always beat an ill designed one by an AI. (Although, with the sheer power of today’s machines, we may soon reach the point where we reverse engineer what the AI did to create that best algorithm versus spending years of research going down the wrong paths when massive, dumb, computation can do all that grunt work for us and get us close to the right answer faster).

AI: Applied Indirection, Artificial Idiocy, & Automated Incompetence … The April Fools Joke Vendors are Playing on You Year Round!

So on the one day of the year when they should be making the joke, I’m going to reveal it.

The vast majority of vendors who claim “AI”, where they want you to think “AI” stands for Artificial Intelligence, have no “AI” in that context, and many don’t even have anything close. A few may have “Assisted Intelligence” (Level 1) and even fewer still may have “Augmented Intelligence” (Level 2), but “Analytical (Cognitive) Intelligence” (Level 3)? Forget it! And as for, Level 4, “Autonomous Intelligence”, which is the baseline that must be met before you could even consider a system true “AI”, doesn’t exist (at least as far as we know). (ChatGPT would be a 3 on this scale, 3.5 if you’re dumb enough to use it to power a semi-autonomous application.) (For more details on the levels of “AI”, see the detailed Pro piece the doctor wrote over on Spend Matters on how Artificial intelligence levels show AI is not created equal. Do you know what the vendor is selling?.)

However, thanks to ChatGPT/OpenAI and other offerings, every vendor all of a sudden feels that their solution has to have “AI” to compete, and is now claiming they have AI when, at best, they’ve implemented some third party “library” into their analytics module, which itself may or may not be AI, or, at worst, they just have classical rule-based automation and statistical-based predictive analytics (i.e. trend analysis) but have called it “AI” because, just like a classic decision-tree expert system from three decades ago, it can make a “recommendation”. Woo hoo.

Not that this is nothing new, three years ago a study by London Venture Capital Firm MMC found that 40% of European startups that are classified as “AI” don’t actually use AI in a way that is “material” to their business. MMC studied 2,830 “AI” startups across 13 EU countries, and in 40% of cases, [they] could find no mention of evidence of AI. (See the great summary in The Verge.) And even that statistic is a bit misleading, because I’m willing to bet that the “evidence” they did find was technology that didn’t necessarily mandate “AI” and could be implemented with “classical” techniques because, as a longtime blogger, analyst, due diligence professional and, most importantly, a PhD in theoretical computer science (read: advanced applied mathematics), I have found that most claims of “AI” weren’t really AI — in most cases they were just using a combination of automation and/or configurable rules and/or advanced statistics and/or machine learning and just had some of the foundations, but no real “AI”.

In our space, real “AI”, and by that I mean strong Level 2 / weak Level 3 (which is the best you can get) is quite rate and specific use cases are few and far between, and most AI is simply semi-unsupervised machine learning for transaction/categorical classification (spend analysis) or clause identification (contract analytics).

The problem is that, when no one really understands what “AI” is, and given that less than 1/10 Americans have the mathematical competency to even begin the university studies to try and garner an understanding [Level 4 on the PIAAC], it’s really easy form them to try and pull a fast one on you. This is especially true when the solution is able to automate certain tasks or recommend best practices in the majority of situations faster and more consistently than the average buyer (who, let’s face it, is under-educated — thanks to limited supply chain / operations management programs and almost no real Procurement training in Colleges and Universities, under experienced, and not an expert in modern technology), and the solution can be made to look “smart” (but, in reality, is dumber than a doorknob and definitely dumber than Maxwell Smart). But it’s not smart. Not at all.  And don’t be fooled.

The good news is the marketing manager using Applied Indirection to push a false AI solution at you probably doesn’t have a clue what they have anyway, and a few smart questions asked by someone who understands what AI is, and isn’t, can probably get pretty close to the truth pretty fast. For example:

1) “We have advanced AI data auto-class. It’s the most intelligent, and accurate, classification in the space.”

‘How does it work?’

“It uses a multi-level neural net that has been trained on tens of millions of records across over a hundred clients in the indirect space.”

‘Great, so basically it categorizes transactions based on similarity to other transactions in a slowly evolving manner, and I’m guessing for a new client in the indirect space, out of the box, you’re around 85% to 90% accuracy out of the box and you approach 95% with semi-supervised retraining over time — and that’s the upper bound and it will never be perfect.’

“Uhm, … well, … more or less … “

‘Got it!’ At this point you know it’s “AI” level for classification is augmented (as it learns and evolves over time), and barely, but it’s not “the best” mapping in the space as platforms that use AI to suggest rules (upon implementation and then for unmapped transactions) and do mapping and categorization based on the user selected and verified rules can produce 100% accurate mappings, always outperforming an “AI” solution that uses neural nets that are good (but not perfect).

‘Do you use AI anywhere else?’

“Uhm, what, why? It’s great where, and as, it is.

And now you know that there is no real AI in the analytics part of the platform, and there’s no reason to choose it over any other.

2) “We use AI for OTD prediction and risk in delivery prediction.”

‘Cool. What algorithm do you use?’

“Huh, what do you mean?”

‘How does the application compute the OTD and/or risk associated with the delivery.’

>Wait for the hand off to their “data scientist” …< “We use a blended least-squares method to produce a prediction function where, if there is enough data for the product, carrier, and lane, we’ll primarily use that data for the function, but if there’s not enough, we’ll use the most similar (using a mathematical distance function) product, carrier, and/or lane data … “

Is that AI, well, if there’s some sort of learning involved in the selection of “similar data” or recommendations as to parameter tuning IF parameters can be tuned, maybe, but this is just classical statistical trend analysis and not really any different than classical ARIMA based forecasting from the 70s, and did they have ANY AI then?!? (The answer is “NO”!)

3) “We use AI for our supplier recommendation process?’

‘Sounds promising … please explain!’

“We compute a relevance score taking into account a large number of factors including product base, geographic location, diversity, risk, etc.”

‘OK … how … ‘

>Cue the Eventual Hand Off to “Data Science” Team<

“Product Base is computed as a percentage of the category they can likely cover, geographic location as an average distance function, diversity as an estimate of diversity employment if there is no diversity ownership data (in which case it’s just 50%), the risk score from our risk model, etc. “

‘So, in other words, it’s just a formula … ‘

“A very sophisticated multi-level formula with conditionals and nesting that computes … “

‘Got it thanks!’ NO AI! Not even a hint there of as it’s just a functional risk score that could be built in ANY application with a formula builder.

This isn’t to say that a solution without AI isn’t right for you! (In fact, it probably is!) It’s all about solving your business problem, and many problems have been solved in our space just fine for the last decade or so with rules-based workflow and automation, optimization, and statistical modelling and trend projection. When guidance is needed, decision trees/matrices tied to expert curated best-practices (the modern equivalent of a classic “expert system”) often work better than one could imagine. In other words, it’s not AI, it’s not the hype, it’s what solves your problem, reliably and predictably time-after-time.

So don’t fall for the false hype and be the April fool.

CoronaVirus Response: Dear Procurement, AI won’t save you!

In the last few years, a number of vendors have been pushing artificial intelligence. Some vendors have even been pushing AI-based suites as the future of sourcing and procurement. And for a time they had a great argument. There are too many low-value, straight-forward, simple and/or tail-spend categories that are not getting appropriately sourced in an average organization that doesn’t have enough people power or hours in a day to properly address all organizational spend in a strategic manner and identify the range of savings and opportunities available to the organization. So why not let technology take over some of this spend, especially where it can’t do any worse than what is being done now?

After all, while there is no true AI, and we won’t have anything close for at least a decade, given the computational power of modern machines, intelligently coded and applied software with advanced analytics, machine learning, and evolving model paradigms can do quite a lot for us, and with respect to some specific tasks where intensive amounts of calculation are required, computer can do it better. Where some insight and intelligence is required, computers can still use advanced analysis and probabilities to get it 95% right 95% of the time and if the right outlier rules are coded, kick it out to a human when it’s likely the computer will get it wrong.

So, given the coronavirus-related chaos going on now, and your inability to deal with the majority of day-to-day tactical tasks and regular category sourcing as you have to constantly deal with new sources of supply interruptions, new challenges of working remote, and, in most industries, declining demands or revenues for the foreseeable, you’re probably thinking now would be the perfect time to invest in AI technologies to get a few workload monkeys off your back as you’re overwhelmed. Something that can take low-value, non-strategic, or commodity category management off your plate sounds like a dream come true.

However, now that you need it the most, I’m sorry to say that now is not the time to try AI. Moreover, adopting AI now would simply result in more catastrophic failures across the organization.

Why? How? Read the doctor‘s unlocked PRO on how AI won’t save you, but rules-based automation might! over on Spend Matters. There’s no miracle cure* for the damage caused by COVID-19, and now would be the worst time to try and adopt what would simply amount to silicon snake oil in these tumultuous times.

* But there was ample opportunity for prevention, and had you listened to the doctor a decade ago when he gave you the answer, you wouldn’t be in this mess right now. But that’s a rant for another day.