Category Archives: Market Intelligence

Good Data Will Not Guarantee Good Decisions

It was great to see this recent article in the Harvard Business Review on how “Good Data Won’t Guarantee Good Decisions” now that we are in the age of “Big Data” (which, in business, is Bullshit in Guise) and everyone is diving into their OLAP and reporting tools without even a clue as to what they are (or should be) looking for. There’s data. There’s information. There’s knowledge. There’s the intelligence required to understand it. And then there’s the wisdom to choose the right course of action.

As the authors state, investments in analytics can be useless, even harmful, unless employees can incorporate that data into complex decision making.

In the article, the authors summarized the result of a study by the Corporate Executive Board that evaluated 5,000 employees at 22 global companies. The study separated the employees into three groups:

  • Unquestioning Empiricists
    who trust analysis over judgment
  • Visceral Decision Makers
    that go exclusively with their gut and
  • Informed Skeptics
    who effectively balance judgment and analysis with their strong analytic skills and willingness to listen to others’ opinions but dissent.

Only the latter group are equipped to make good decisions, and, not unexpectedly, only 38% of employees and 50% of senior managers fall into this group.

And when you consider that their analysis also found that the functions where the employees had the highest average scores performed 24% better than other functions across a wide range of metrics (including effectiveness, productivity, employee engagement, and market-share growth), this is not a good thing.

Why is this the case? The researchers identified the following four problems that prevent organizations from realizing better returns on their data investment:

  • analytic skills are concentrated in too few employees
    just because you have a few experts doesn’t mean that the analytics skills will trickle down
  • IT spends too much time on “T” and not enough on “I”
    IT is used to working with functions where business needs are clearly defined, stable, and relatively consistent … when the needs become less defined, IT becomes less able to support them
  • reliable information is hard to locate
    many organizations lack a coherent, accessible structure for the data they’ve collected; the authors found in their survey that fewer than 44% of employees say they know where to find the information they need for their day-to-day work
  • business executives don’t manage information well
    (at least when compared to capital and brand) — they focus on more physical or traditional assets

While not addressed, and possibly not covered, by the study, I’d also add the following to the list:

  • No Good Roadmaps Exist
    Analytics skills are not enough — a guide on how to find the needle in the haystack is also required; take Spend Analysis for example … how many practical guides exist? (At least one.)
  • Lack of EQ
    as an employee needs to not only understand where to look, but when something is worthwhile to chase and when it’s not as there is a need to understand the business impact of what the data might be suggesting which requires understanding the business needs as well as the data

So what can an organization do to get more informed skeptics?

Avoiding the 88 Million Dollar Fine

In our last post, we pointed out how the likelihood of a multi-million dollar fine, which could range from the $3.1 Million recently paid by Maersk to the $88.3 Million recently paid by JP Morgan, is increasing almost daily for an average mid-size multi-national that is importing and exporting regularly as more sanctions, specially designated nationals (SDN), and denied parties are being added to the OFAC (Office of Foreign Asset Control) and BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security) lists.

The problem is that with dozens of major country sanctions in the Federal Register; hundreds of individual sanctions against countries for specified commodities, services, or financial transactions; and thousands of names on the SDN, denied persons, and denied entities list, it is impossible to keep on track of the situation manually — even if you have a team of clerks and lawyers reading around the clock. You need an automated solution. But not any solution will do.

Why? You can’t just do a(n) exact name match. First of all, the individual doing data entry could make a typo — and all of a sudden instead of AIR CESS HOLDINGS LTD, it’s AIR CHESS HOLDINGS LTD, and you’re shipping to a denied national in the UAE. Oops! Secondly, the individual placing the order could slightly alter his or her (company) name so that the local delivery person still knows the shipment is for him or her (since no illiterate American is going to spell Abdelwadoud Abou Mossaab correctly and Abdelwadod Abou Mosab is the best you can hope for) but so that it doesn’t match on a name search. You also have to check for close (mis)spellings.

But this isn’t enough. If the spelling is off enough, it will still be missed. You also have to check by address. If the address is an exact match and the name could be a match, then it’s probably a denied party. But even address isn’t enough. A smart denied party that is a corporate entity will just open a new PO Box and abbreviate their name enough so that a simple match algorithm will fail. However, you could argue that you can combat this with a greater than 80% success rate with some good AI and AR (automated reasoning) and then argue that if you do screw up once, you could have the fine minimized by working with the OFAC and/or BIS and demonstrating due diligence, but even this is not enough.

First of all, if the company knows it is on a denied party list and wants to get product from the US bad enough, and it is a “holding company”, or has a parent “holding company”, the first thing it’s going to do if it’s smart is open a new subsidiary or sister company at a new address with a new Director and then approach a new mid-sized supplier who will be thrilled at the opportunity to get new business and who will likely cease checking once there are no partial matches on the sanctions or denied parties lists. And then the minute the Federal Government marks the company as associated with denied (terrorist) entity, you pop up as supplying contraband and, to be blunt, you’re in boiling water.

Secondly, it might not be you that violates the sanction, but one of your first tier suppliers who violates it on your behalf, which, depending on what sanction is violated, could be just as bad. For example, your logistics carrier could decide to load perfectly fine Cargo destined to sanction-free Egypt (at least where your cargo is concerned), which is ok, but then stop at a Canadian port to pick up cargo for Saudi Arabia, and then, before it drops your cargo off in Egypt, stops at a Saudi port where your cargo is contraband under export requirements. Then, because of bad record keeping, it can’t prove that none of your cargo was off-loaded in Saudi Arabia, and that all of the cargo made it to Egypt, and, again, you are in hot water.

In other words, a first generation Trade Data Management Solution that automatically scans the sanctions and denied party lists is not enough. It also has to keep track of corporate relationships and verify that the company isn’t a shell or entity acting on behalf of a denied company or entity, and that it’s suppliers and services providers are not violating import and export restrictions on its behalf.

I’ve seen solutions that do a great job of applying AI and advanced analysis to detect denied parties on the lists that would not be spotted manually, and I’ve seen solutions that do a great job of providing visibility into first, and even second tier, supply chain in terms of what product is where, when, and where it’s going to go — but I haven’t seen a solution that does both superbly. To be honest, it’s been over a year since I have seen the best companies like Integration Point, TradeCard, CDC Tradebeam, QuestaWeb, and EcoVadis have to offer with respect to denied party / sanction screening, so I am issuing a challenge to all Global Trade Management (GTM) and SCV (Supply Chain Visibility) Providers. Show me a solution that can prevent OFAC and BIS violations and fines 100% when used properly, and I’ll give you a 3-part series.

Are You Revenue/Growth Enabled? Take This Hackett Group Survey and Find Out!

Today, the Hackett Group released their latest study — the Revenue Growth Enablement Study. The goals of this study are to determine in what ways a Procurement organization can enable revenue/growth scenarios for the organization as a whole, how far an average organization is down the revenue/growth enablement path, and what practices leading organizations are using to enable revenue/growth. Given the burning need for leading Procurement organizations to not only do more with less, but contribute to the top and bottom line in even more ways, this is an important study. For Procurement to earn, and keep, that seat in the C-Suite, it has to continue to deliver value year-over-year. And the best way to deliver that value, once it has trimmed costs, is to help the organization grow (with its expertise in operations management), globalize (with its expertise in foreign markets) and increase revenue (with its expertise in logistics, multi-stage and multi-channel inventory management, and new product introduction [NPI]).

Not only will this study give you ideas on how to identify growth priorities, tactics to support those priorities, metrics to measure success, NPI, and support sales and marketing, but it will qualify you for the full study results and final report when the study is complete. And in the meantime, you get one of the following five reports free upon survey completion:

  • 2012 Procurement Key Issues Study
  • Category Management – Beyond The “Strategic” in Strategic Sourcing
  • Supplier Relationship Management (Part I: Tapping the Power of Top Performance in SRM)
  • Defining & Expanding the Value Proposition of Purchase-to-Pay
  • A New Procurement for a New Normal

The 2012 Procurement Key Issues Study identifies the top 10 issues for Procurement organizations in the coming year, with the acceleration of revenue growth leading the way. (That’s why this study is so important.) It also discusses some key strategies for enabling profitable growth, including globalization — which will nearly triple within three years, as determined by the Hackett Group in their “Globalizing Procurement’s Service Delivery Model, Not Just the Supply Base”. (For some key stats, see SIs recent post on The Global Agenda — It’s Coming!.)

The study on Category Management, which attempted to go beyond the “strategic” in strategic sourcing, found that despite the additional savings opportunities that can come from category management (as chronicled by a number of Procurement leaders in Hackett’s conferences last year and by leading sourcing platform providers like BravoSolution), only 5% of companies have a category-focussed strategic sourcing process that is very well implemented or truly strategic. The majority of companies pursuing strategic sourcing (54%) are just average with a process that is fairly well implemented, but which does not push the boundaries. The report, which clearly defines the difference between a standard strategic sourcing approach and a category management approach, takes a deep dive into category management objectives and strategies, the supply management service line it enables, and provides a strategic category management framework that can jump-start an average organization looking to take it to the next level.

The study on Supplier Relationship Management, the first in a series, is extremely insightful on the importance of good SRM which is not just foundational for sourcing success, but transformational from a value viewpoint. It was found to increase cost savings / avoidance in top performers by almost 80% and growth-related benefits by 53%! SRM drives almost 45% of total Procurement value in top-performers! This is a level of improvement not achievable by any of the “Top 10 Technologies for Supply Management” on their own or even combined in a pair! Only collaborative sourcing, which embraces supplier relationships, can reach this level of value. The paper also identifies key differentiators of top performers and a model for SRM success that you can use to jump-start your organizational effort.

I haven’t reviewed the last two papers, but Sunday’s post pointed out how the UK Government expects to save £40 Million a year just by paying SME construction suppliers directly through P2P. P2P is full of opportunity, and I’m sure this paper will provide deep insights that can be used to jump-start an initiative. Finally, while There Is NO New Normal … Just the Old Normal Coming Back, there is a need for New Procurement Technology to cope with the return of an Old Normal that had passed before such technology hit the scene, and if any research organization is going to nail what that technology is going to be on the head, it’s the Hackett group.

To take the the Revenue Growth Enablement Study (enabled by their new, interactive, Qualtrics tool), and get your free research (and make your organization better for it), join the “World Class Procurement” LinkedIn Group.

GoTradeLive: A LinkedIn eBay on Steroids for Small Business Procurement to Groupon To.

GoTradeLive is launching its new, global, trading platform targeted at small and medium businesses in the US today. Its new free social commerce and commercial trading platform is poised to be as disruptive to the small business Procurement market as Coupa (Cabana) was when it was launched back in 2007 on Procurement Independence Day. This is not something the doctor says lightly.

So what is GoTradeLive? It is, simply put, a power-auction platform for small businesses on steroids. And what’s so great about that, you astutely ask because there are dozens, and dozens, of auction platforms out there ranging from free to seven figures in cost? It’s social. It’s networked. It’s mobile. It’s easy to use. It’s global (and multi-currency). It’s Free. It can be branded. And it’s proven — as it’s already been tested in Australia, New Zealand, China, and the UK, where they have offices.

Let’s take the benefits one-by-one.

  • It’s social
    You can create your own trading networks using a Facebook / Linked-In type interface and these can be public or private for public or private sales or trades.
  • It’s networked
    While the build-your-trading network ability of the Ariba or Ketera networks are not yet there, the building blocks are and you can see it’s coming. But the ability to define custom trading networks is unique.
  • It’s (a) mobile (platform)
    Like the consumer social networks and e-Commerce platforms, they have a mobile app that allows you to monitor your trades and bids from your mobile device.
  • It’s easy to use
    It’s as easy to use as Facebook, eBay, and other consumer sites.
  • It’s global.
    It has already been launched in Australasia and the UK and further global launches are already planned. It supports automatic currency translation for global buying and selling.
  • It’s Free.
    It’s using the Freemium model pioneered by sites like LinkedIn, DropBox, and BaseCamp. It literally costs nothing to use. No registration or account fees. No listing fees. No transaction fees. (However, if you don’t pay, you are subjected to ads and there is nothing to prevent an advertisement for a competitor’s product or auction appearing on your listing page.) Given that the cost of some platforms include transaction fees of up to 15%, this is a great deal.
  • It can be branded.
    For as little as $15 a month, which gives you one-user access, you can brand the site into your own trading platform (with your logo, colour scheme, etc.) and eliminate advertisements. Small Business Pricing is coming soon, and will start at less than $100 / month.

It’s a great social commerce platform for quickly moving slow, excess, or end-of life inventory and a great platform for many small businesses, especially those in retail, construction, and similar goods-based verticals, for spot-buying product needed at irregular intervals. And it has a lot of promise. This is one platform the doctor will be watching closely.

The Procurement Game Plan: A Review Part I.2

Charles Dominick of Next Level Purchasing and Soheila R. Lunney of Lunney Advisory Group recently released The Procurement Game Plan: Winning Strategies and Techniques for Supply Management Professionals. In our last post, we set the stage with The Purchasing Professional’s 10 Commandments. In this post we’re going to continue our fairly detailed review of this book, which will span four or five posts. We’ll start by covering the first four chapters of the book that discuss organizational role, supply management strategy, talent, and social responsibility — the stage that a modern supply management professional has to act upon.

The first chapter on Procurement’s Place in the organization starts out with an overview of management’s expectations of modern Procurement — something every Procurement Pro needs to know when finding a (new) job in today’s highly competitive skill-based marketplace. We’re well beyond the time when all that was expected of Supply Management was cost savings. Now, with costs rising and consumer belts tightening, Supply Management is also being tasked to deliver productivity improvements, brand & differentiation support, customer satisfacation, cash flow improvements, great service, competitive advantage, and sometimes even revenue. It’s a tall order for a single organization — it’s good that the strategies and tools exist to deliver. (And that’s kind of what this blog is all about, but the doctor digresses.)

The chapter then dives into the types of goals that Procurement / Supply Management organizations have, and this is where the value of the book starts to kick in. Organizations, depending on their stage of maturity, either have no (documented) goals, which is very bad, vague goals (with no meaningful measurable targets), which is bad as a professional will not know how important each goal is relative to other goals, SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-Bound) goals, which are good and a minimum requirement for organizational success, or Strategic SMART goals, which are great as they also tie the SMART goals to overall organizational strategy. A world-class supply management organization puts the good of the organization before the good of itself.

The chapter also discusses strategic vs. tactical procurement, Procurement as a Profit Centre, Procurement as a Service Centre, and Procurement’s Role in Specification Writing — but the other key section of the chapter is The Procurement Manifesto. Because it can be difficult to gain buy-in from functional departments when trying to get them to accept Procurement’s involvement, it is important to have a list of reasons why it will benefit them to work with Procurement. Your Supply Management organization should have such a list and should describe then in The Procurement Manifesto that can be given to the other organizational units. For details on what to include, see the book.

The next chapter discusses Supply Management Strategy — The Procurement Playbook if you will. The existence of an appropriately written guiding document will help keep the organization on the same page and help it to achieve its goals. Such a document must contain the following five sections in order to meet the department’s needs:

  1. The Procurement Organization’s Business Plan
  2. The Procurement Organization Structure
  3. Cost Control Strategies
  4. Risk Management Strategies
  5. The Supply Management Sourcing & Procurement Methodologies

Each piece of the puzzle must be clearly defined and outlined, and each organizational member must be on the same page. For details on how to write the Procurement business plan, on what types of cost control strategies to focus on, and what types of risk management strategies might be included, see the book.

One of the key parts of this chapter is the section on standard supplier selection criteria. The authors note that you should use a hierarchy of constraints and criteria every time you select a supplier. That hierarchy must include all of the relevant selection criteria, ordered and weighted so that each supplier can be compared fairly. This is sometimes the only way to determine which supplier will be the best fit for an organization. Generally speaking, this hierarchy should contain cost, value, quality, service, social responsibility, convenience, risk, and agility at a minimum, with other factors added depending on the goods or service being sourced. The weightings and rankings will be project specific.

The next chapter on Procurement Talent Management is one of the key chapters of the books and contains one of the key messages, talent is key to success. Without it, no amount of technology or transition management will help. It does a great job of discussing the five facets of the talent management cycle — Assess, Retain, Develop, Recruit, and Unify — and how each is necessary for organizational success. It also points out that they are not sequential and, depending on organizational needs, they may all need to be addressed simultaneously. Not only is talent management more important than many organizations prioritize it in their key issues list, but it is more difficult than many organizations would lead you to believe. This is a chapter to be reviewed in depth as almost every point matters, but a key point it addresses that is often missed is that education is a retention tool. Real professionals want to learn and improve, and will value an employer that not only allows them to do that, but that sponsors their education and efforts to improve themselves. The value of educating a resource is many times the up-front investment. Many, many times. The only point I’d disagree with in the entire chapter is the statement that by working with the business schools of the universities in your area, you can hire (at no cost/credit only or at minimal cost) intelligent and hard-working interns to take away the burden of tactical work from your strategic sourcing team members. While it is true that you can hire these intelligent, eager, hard-working resources at little-cost to do just this, they will need regular supervision from your senior Procurement Professionals, and this is a hidden cost you will need to account for.

The next chapter, and the final chapter that we’ll cover in this post, is on social responsibility in procurement: the new rules for a more responsible game. Whether this is important to your organization now or not, it will soon be as more and more consumers demand environmental or social responsibility, so you better get a handle on how it is going to impact your organization now, or you’ll be scrambling later when the media has you under the gone. Not a situation any Supply Management organization wants to be in when they can eliminate the risk with some careful research, planning, and a social responsibility program – which may not have to be all that extensive or demanding.

One of the key points covered by the chapter, which is often missed by other books, is ethics. Not only does social responsibility start with ethical behaviour, but a perceived lack of ethics, real or not, can land you and your organization in hot-water. As an example, the authors describe some recent government scandals, including one that got their mayor in some very hot water. In 2007, Mayor Luke Ravenstahl accepted two days of golf in the Mario Lemieux Celebrity Invitational from UPMC and the Pittsburgh Penguins, valued at $9K. His defence is that while the city’s ethics code limited city officials to accept admission to cultural or athletic events valued at $250 or less per year, charitable outings were exempted. This may have been a charitable event, but it’s value created a perceived conflict of interest that landed him in very hot water with the media. Then, a few months later, he decided he wanted to accept free tickets to go to a Stanley Cup Final game against the Detroit Red Wings. This time, he asked for an official legal opinion first, but it didn’t matter because the ticket value was very high and another councillor said he made half of the Mayor’s salary and pays for his hockey tickets out of his own pocket and the mayor should do the same. The lesson is that even if you don’t violate the ethics or gift acceptance policy of your organization, if there is any chance your actions could be perceived by a (large) group of people as unethical, you probably shouldn’t do it. And if you have to think about whether or not something is ethical, and, even worse, think you have to ask permission, just don’t do it.

The sections on the supplier code of conduct, green procurement, and supplier diversity, which for the most part cover all of the basics, are also quite good and worth a careful read.

That’s it for Part I. In Part II, we’ll discuss the next four chapters on Strategic Sourcing, Supplier Qualification, and Negotiations. Stay tuned.